Weathergun Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 The ensembles haven't wavered from a colder solution than the op for a while now. It has been consistent. The GFS and Euro ensemble means have been trending warmer for much of next week. The larger ensemble spread and lower resolutions, in the medium range, would cause them to still be colder than ops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 A west based - nao would have really helped us out. No doubt it will be much colder next week than what we have been seeing, dude i just gave you the honors of the biggest weenie and you dont thank me. WTF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 The GFS and Euro ensemble means have been trending warmer for much of next week. The larger ensemble spread and lower resolutions, in the medium range, would cause them to still be colder than ops. That's the thing I also have been seeing. The point is that no one really knows what's going to happen after mid month and the change to colder weather is going to happen. I am not saying that snow will come with it but it will feel different than what we are experiencing right now. I think we have to wait for the NAO and AO to be in favorable states in order to see snow. If that means a great January and February, then I will wait that long. Last year we had to wait till the end of the month, even with a -NAO and -AO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 dude i just gave you the honors of the biggest weenie and you dont thank me. WTF. Thanks ( I guess ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 most boring month of the year potentially? someone is going to have to revive me in january, hopefully not jan 2013 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 most boring month of the year potentially? someone is going to have to revive me in january, hopefully not jan 2013 lol yea man. this is absolutely brutal. no thunderstorms, earthquakes, hurricanes, nothing. Its like living in Arizona Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HailMan06 Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 Happy Met Winter everyone! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Momza Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 1322760334[/url]' post='1156925']We were bound to get a crappy winter eventually. Also we still have January and February. Nope, we are on a roll. The recents trends will prevail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 Right now I'm not so sure it will be much colder than the upper 40s/low 50s we're seeing now. At least not through the 8th. A west based - nao would have really helped us out. No doubt it will be much colder next week than what we have been seeing, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 The people I am talking about are not mets from penn state, he follows a select bunch of loonies who don't know their ass from their head. Some of them are completely off their rocker, and I am intentionally not naming names. that being said, I don't think you will find any pro mets from this board who agree with your penn state source, but that wasn't my reference anyway. I really do not care if any of the pro mets from this board agree with the pro met I am talking about or not... What is important to me when it comes to Pro Mets is their track record... And this particular Pro Mets track record is OUTSTANDING.... Further more the EPO stays negative on the ECM ensemble means (and more negative then last nights runs) while there has not been much change in the other teleconnections. Obviously too strong of a - EPO can mean a strong southeast ridge but what I am seeing is a gradient pattern setting up (which is what I have been consistently talking about) and where this gradient sets up will determine any "storm threats" If you are on the Northern side of this gradient then your winter prospects in "storm threats : will be greater then if you are on the southern side.. The question is where that sets up...and ATM with the operationals you have no answer because they keep bouncing back and forth so that is then why you turn to the ensemble means and you see that they are more consistent with where this sets up... By the way National Weather Service out of Mt Holly also talks about the same thing that I just mentioned above in reference to the upcoming frontal system and potential wave.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 And the GFS changed once again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 That is horse manure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 And the GFS changed once again man it is totally garbage..I mean that it is insane Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 That is horse manure. Insane cold getting dumped into the U.S. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 It gets colder past that. Has the city with highs under 32, day 9. Very cold run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 Gets even colder in fantasy range. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 The positive spin would be that the front is getting better sampled, causing the change. But in reality, it's one run and we have to see if it lasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted December 1, 2011 Author Share Posted December 1, 2011 its all about PV alignment and how the model handles its evolution as it moves south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 So pretty much the GFS was a torch in the long range at 12z, and threw the east in the freezer in the long range at 18z. Excellent model agreement there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 I don't know if anyone follows the LRC but it is pointing to a storm around the midmonth timeframe. It has been correct on a lot of storms in the past. http://lrcweather.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=362:winter-forecast-2011-2012&catid=24:blog&Itemid=29 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 Seems that the 18z GFS drop the PV much further south this run throwing the east Into the icebox, its laughable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 Quite a change from the last run, but as with the last few runs though, this run doesn't completely crush the SE ridge, but it's far south enough to allow the northern Mid Atlantic to get into the colder temperatures as well as the Northeast. It's just one run at this time, and considering that it's the long range GFS, I'd rather have support from the ECM and another 1-2 days of GFS runs before going along with such a scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 No its not believable because the guidance (ensembles) show that winter is not happening..of course that thought is only in the mind of weenies who were spoiled like a rotten egg by the early october snowstorm and expected because it happened early that this meant that ALL this time (FALL) we were going to be cold and snowy...unfortunately reality says it does not work like that and that was just a BONUS snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 1322780326[/url]' post='1158104']Quite a change from the last run, but as with the last few runs though, this run doesn't completely crush the SE ridge, but it's far south enough to allow the northern Mid Atlantic to get into the colder temperatures as well as the Northeast. It's just one run at this time, and considering that it's the long range GFS, I'd rather have support from the ECM and another 1-2 days of GFS runs before going along with such a scenario. It crushes the SE ridge in the extended for a couple days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 It crushes the SE ridge in the extended for a couple days. It looks like the -EPO really takes charge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted December 1, 2011 Author Share Posted December 1, 2011 It crushes the SE ridge in the extended for a couple days. Not really. The SE ridge is still there, just slightly displaced and elongated to the east of where it normally is. The PV does not crush it at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 Wake me up when the NAO goes negative Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 Wake me up when the NAO goes negative You do know that you can get really cold conditions with a +PNA or a -EPO right? A -NAO is good when you want sustained cold or a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 Not really. The SE ridge is still there, just slightly displaced and elongated to the east of where it normally is. The PV does not crush it at all The GFS as well as the ECM runs show that the troughs moving into the region weaken the SE ridge and push it southeast, but the ridge never completely falls apart. As you said, it's there but not as far north/west as it's been before. Definitely an improvement over the 12z GFS though when heights reached 576 dm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 The 18z GEFS mean gets cold right after December 9. It stays cold throughout the run with a low around the area on December 13. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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