MJO812 Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 GEFS mean have too much of a spread. As you get into the long range, the spread becomes more and more, causing the gradient pattern to appear more south then it really will be. Ensembles also never amplify a storm past day 7-8, so that would also cause them to not show a SE ridge. The ensembles haven't wavered from a colder solution than the op for a while now. It has been consistent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 The ensembles haven't wavered from a colder solution than the op for a while now. It has been consistent. yes, consistently wrong ggem ensembles look like they will take the cake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 The ensembles haven't wavered from a colder solution than the op for a while now. It has been consistent. Did you read my post as to why? Jeez. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 Did you read my post as to why? Jeez. Yes but you can't discount them because of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 GEFS are still colder than the op. Lets see what the Euro ensembles how. Who cares. 65 instead of 70. Let's celebrate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 Yes but you can't discount them because of that. Yes you can. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 Yes you can. Everyone can throw in the towel. I am not going to just yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 Who cares. 65 instead of 70. Let's celebrate. Earthlight will re-open the spa soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eduardo Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 I find this so demoralizing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 here's the first official talking points/discussion thread of the season. get at it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 Anyone want to guess who will snap by january and get suspended? Ji Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 With today's high in Central Park being at least 50, we have now gone 13 straight days with a high of 50 or above (Nov 18 was the last sub 50 high, when we reached just 46). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 Pro Met Bobby Martrich out of Penn State Matt Strouse :I do not know about you Bobby Martrich ..but when i look at the ECM it appears to be having ALOT of problems with this frontal system and the switch to colder. So much problems that now it does not bring the colder air in.. When i look at the ensemble means however..they tell a different story. Much colder compared to the OP. What is your take...? Lehigh Valley Weather Patrol with Bobby & Suzy I think the operationals are trying to play catch up with the ensembles... Matt Strouse: So, in other words ..you are agreeing with me at this point and time that the ensemble means are the way to go? Lehigh Valley Weather Patrol with Bobby & Suzy I do agree that the ensembles are always the way to go when looking at temperature... before the operationals. Also i keep seeing posts about the GGEM ensembles and yet ... We see this on the GGEM means last night for the 00z run which was colder then the operational ECM.... This is what i do not understand..People are touting the GGEM etc and yet the GGEM etc is colder then the last two runs of the ECM operational.. So if you are going to tout the model at least look at what the model is actually saying and showing ..... By the way Bobby Martrich is probably the only pro met that I am aware of other then maybe DT who called for the October 29th snowstorm a week in advance before the National Media outlets....appears on radio stations (WZZO) and has alot of clients that depend on him! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 Thats yesterday's ensemble. Lets see what today's shows. I bet they show se ridgeville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 12z GGEM is colder than the GFS for next week. That's interesting because the GGEM is usually warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 Even the 12z nogaps sees the impending doom and also has a strong se ridge with torch temps, past day 7 now: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 ggem' torches second week of december onward and also showed the cooldown as transient. They are matching the op runs we saw today better than anything else in terms of the future pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 ggem' torches second week of december onward and also showed the cooldown as transient. They are matching the op runs we saw today better than anything else in terms of the future pattern. If you look at our temps in Nov as a trend, we actually WARMED during the month. This sh*t crazy... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 If you look at our temps in Nov as a trend, we actually WARMED during the month. This sh*t crazy... we warmed as nina strengthened, that's not an accident. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 we warmed as nina strengthened, that's not an accident. Yep, and just as I thought, I did a simple linear regression on the hourly data sampled from 11-01 to 11-30, and the slope of the best fit line is POSITIVE. The equation is: y = 0.0038x + 50.38 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 It looks like the 12z Euro ensemble mean has a gradient type pattern at the end of the run. It's cooler than the op run for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 It looks like the 12z Euro ensemble mean has a gradient type pattern at the end of the run. It's cooler than the op run for sure. that only means instead of luke warm rain, you get cold rain. South Brooklyn will never see snow in this pattern, ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 that only means instead of luke warm rain, you get cold rain. South Brooklyn will never see snow in this pattern, ever. No it means that the ensembles and the op runs are still different. No one has a clue what will happen next week and beyond. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 No it means that the ensembles and the op runs are still different. No one has a clue what will happen next week and beyond. the sane people do, the nuts you follow who promise you things that won't come true have no clue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 fyi, a west based NAO in this pattern would have us rocking, such a waste, oh well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 the sane people do, the nuts you follow who promise you things that won't come true have no clue. No offense i will take a Pro Met from Penn State that worked for the NWS & appears on radio stations over what you refer to as the sane people... These sane people thought October 29th would not happen like it did! The nuts you refer to knew it a week in advance.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 No offense i will take a Pro Met from Penn State that worked for the NWS & appears on radio stations over what you refer to as the sane people... These sane people thought October 29th would not happen like it did! The nuts you refer to knew it a week in advance.... i say we have a vote for the biggest weenie and the smallest weenie (least bullish) Noreaster - smallest weenie Snow88 - biggest weenie thetrials - used a weenie pump, so he variates depending on the time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 No offense i will take a Pro Met from Penn State that worked for the NWS & appears on radio stations over what you refer to as the sane people... These sane people thought October 29th would not happen like it did! The nuts you refer to knew it a week in advance.... The people I am talking about are not mets from penn state, he follows a select bunch of loonies who don't know their ass from their head. Some of them are completely off their rocker, and I am intentionally not naming names. that being said, I don't think you will find any pro mets from this board who agree with your penn state source, but that wasn't my reference anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 i say we have a vote for the biggest weenie and the smallest weenie (least bullish) Noreaster - smallest weenie Snow88 - biggest weenie thetrials - used a weenie pump, so he variates depending on the time I like to keep the masses guessing. You know I bark when its time to bark, and I am usually overly aggressive. THAT SHOULD TELL YOU SOMETHING that I am so down on this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 fyi, a west based NAO in this pattern would have us rocking, such a waste, oh well A west based - nao would have really helped us out. No doubt it will be much colder next week than what we have been seeing, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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