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Banter and BS December 2011


Alpha5

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three weeks, changes in three weeks. I promise you.

Until then, come golfing with me and enjoy a Cigar, on the house.

I'll play some golf.. I wasn't able to get out this summer, but I've been hacking divots for about 15 years or so. I just looked at the radar images from 1/96 and 12/10. I feel a bit better now.

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nice!! hey.. anybody got that epic radar loop of the storm.. that was friggin' awesome... although I'm still trying to come up with an explanation as to why I only got about 12 inches from that storm. I should have had over to 2 feet. I was pissed off about that.

yea...im suprised the superband didnt extend up your way. i thought it did.

you sure you didnt measure on a plowed street? lol...

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yea...im suprised the superband didnt extend up your way. i thought it did.

you sure you didnt measure on a plowed street? lol...

it might be possible that I'm that dumb... lol I can see myself doing something like that... I think I'm going to do a Rockland County study. I blame the Palisades mall which was built in 1998.. Ever since 1/96, I've pretty much gotten screwed.

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So it looks like the 12z euro more or less caved to the GFS w/ its stronger SE ridge. Funny how the model screwing us usually ends up correct.

Completely caved to the GFS. GFS has been hinting at the day 6-7 storm being a strong SE ridge cutter and also for the extended to continue it. While Euro falsely showed a cold, gradient pattern, with a gradient setup by DC.

Let's hope models are overdoing everything. If not, we are toast for at least 3 weeks.

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GEFS are still colder than the op. Lets see what the Euro ensembles how.

GEFS mean have too much of a spread. As you get into the long range, the spread becomes more and more, causing the gradient pattern to appear more south then it really will be.

Ensembles also never amplify a storm past day 7-8, so that would also cause them to not show a SE ridge.

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So it looks like the 12z euro more or less caved to the GFS w/ its stronger SE ridge. Funny how the model screwing us usually ends up correct.

More as a result of the fact it now has a massive cutter after Day 8 than anything else though. The period Day 5-Day 8 the ridge is there but it is not overly strong. At this point I'm thinking perhaps getting an epic cutter is what we may need to drive the cold air east, sometimes you can get a true pattern changer with a storm like that, the problem with this cutting system the next 3-4 days is its simply too weak to drive the front across.

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