Edge Weather Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 The control run of the 12z Euro turns this thing this weekend up the coast, keeping the precip light here, only around .1 or so, but the .25 is not that far away, and it would definitely be all snow. It would seem that there is some potential there. Some of the ensemble members of the GFS were also showing this and the UKMET is practically over us with the low. It also has a Christmas eve snow for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 Everybody's a critic. nah, thats your perception. learning is fundamental...whether im dishing it or receiving it. isnt that why we are here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 Euro weeklies even look better. Not amazing, but better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 Interestingly today at the 1 hPa level there is some stratospheric warming starting to take shape in the Arctic Basin, possibly associated with the increasingly negative QBO. The ECMWF and the GFS both show a SSW in the coming days, so seeing the statospheric layer warming in the Arctic Basin is definitely encouraging for a pattern change to say the very least. this is the kind of stuff that should be in the discussion thread, not the banter thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 this is the kind of stuff that should be in the discussion thread, not the banter thread. You are correct and I am mistaken. I shall delete that post and put it in the Discussion thread accordingly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 The control run of the Euro actually keeps the Tuesday system that the operational run shows to our south and shuts it east on Wednesday, then develops a coastal storm for Christmas Eve, although not that intense, it would be snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBG Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 96 covered a much larger area and it was soooo long that its still to this day, considered the grandfather of EC snowstorms. however, boxing day last winter was more intense...just in a smaller area. i still rate 96 as #1, boxing day #2. but they are really close for IMBY...but i could understand folks that prefer boxing day. Both storms show that a major storm can occur during a moderate-strong La Niña. Prior to that the only modern example was March 19-20,1956. Last year, we had 3 or 4 (I forget which) KU storms. I felt Boxing Day was more dramatic, though both are highly memorable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBG Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 Only to reload and dump on us from late January to April, non stop. Not really non-stop. We had major torches during most of January 1996, and much of late February 1996. The storm that was most memorable was March 8, 1996. I was watching my older son being born and the staff told me not to watch the procedure, which was a Caeserean. That type of thing doesn't bother me. I said, "don't worry, I'm watching the snow. I'm a weather buff". After watching it bomb snow (and sneaking a look at the procedure) I said "look like it (my son) is a red head. They said "you weren't supposed to be looking" and "you should ask if he's breathing". Luckily within seconds he was and is now my spitting image, 15 3/4 years later. And he's seen lots of snow.He was away in California during Boxing Day though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 Does anyone have an image or images of the greatest gfs snowstorm model run, whether it be an actual storm that occurred or one that didn't pan out but the image is still spectacular to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 Does anyone have an image or images of the greatest gfs snowstorm model run, whether it be an actual storm that occurred or one that didn't pan out but the image is still spectacular to see. http://www.njfreeways.com/weather/1996/07-Jan-96-SurfaceMaps.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Momza Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 Banter, I am astonished on how much disrespect JB gets here. I don't know much about DT, and the others that are lumped with him, but I do know that most of the on air mets don't breath the same air as he does. I don't subscribe to his sites. I don't care how successful he is. I also know that there are a lot of people with his ability around, some we know some we don't. Discrediting professionals with good track records(and far from perfect), unless it is in the proper spirit, shows arrogance. This time last year he was calling for a snow filled northeast December. He took heat right up to 12/27. What is the argument about his abilities? Is it personal or professional? Would a newbie weather hobbyist not learn anything from JB? In my opinion,he is as good as anybody out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 That block brings tears to my eyes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 That block brings tears to my eyes it brings a tingle to my loins!! haha. that year was just unreal. Almost a complete opposite of what we're dealing with currently. I do remember people saying(myself included).. " i'll never complain if we never get another snowstorm again" yada yada yada. lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 Last few years it was how many snowstorms we can get and now its when we'll get our first one. We got spoiled the past few winters now we may be facing a snow drought this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 Last few years it was how many snowstorms we can get and now its when we'll get our first one. We got spoiled the past few winters now we may be facing a snow drought this year um we had our first MECS already...? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 meh, should have seen that the whole system was setting up just a bit too far to the s and e, you can see it there with the 500mb position. good for LI, not much else. All bark and no bite for 99% of this subforum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 meh, should have seen that the whole system was setting up just a bit too far to the s and e, you can see it there with the 500mb position. good for LI, not much else. All bark and no bite for 99% of this subforum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 another one outside looking in for the most part. Push that block further west to get the sub pv to scoot north a little and we all see the crazy totals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 That, IMO, should have rivaled all the big ones that came about here.... We were a bit too mild to start, all the levels were cold enough, but the sfc low did not bomb quickly enough (BWI got 19.5" of snow because the H500 low came SE of them). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 I recall on Eastern prior to December 19-20, 2009, how massive it could have potentially be.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted December 13, 2011 Author Share Posted December 13, 2011 I recall on Eastern prior to December 19-20, 2009, how massive it could have potentially be.... Worst Storm Ever 12 hours of virga from hell, only got 5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 Watch the loop of Dec 19-20, 2009.... The explosion of moisture is quite remarkable. The sfc low went a bit too far east as it went ENE, instead of NNE.... If, it did go NNE, we would, also be covered with 18-24-30" amounts. Would have been a category 4 on the scale; maybe even 5. SNE got 12-24" also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 The 18z NOGAPS has a 984mb low centered over Eastern Long Island at 18z on Monday with heavy snow over Northern New Jersey. Two prior runs of the GFS did almost the exact same thing over the past week at the same time on Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 The 18z NOGAPS has a 984mb low centered over Eastern Long Island at 18z on Monday with heavy snow over Northern New Jersey. Two prior runs of the GFS did almost the exact same thing over the past week at the same time on Monday. Assuming city and central nj is rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 850 line hugs the Garden State Parkway after the low bombs, so all of NJ, almost to the immediate coast would be snow, city is rain. Central and southern parts may have surface temp issues though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 Assuming city and central nj is rain Shocking revelations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 meh, should have seen that the whole system was setting up just a bit too far to the s and e, you can see it there with the 500mb position. good for LI, not much else. All bark and no bite for 99% of this subforum. Haha right...99%? im pretty sure all of nassau and suffolk got slammed...population 7 million...id say 20% of the subforum is long island...it was an amazing storm Being in western suffolk for that baby was sweet...i remember that CCB drifting across the island, my god was it amazing, those snowfall rates were absolutely insane, 3-4 inches an hour easily...AMAZING STORM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 Haha right...99%? im pretty sure all of nassau and suffolk got slammed...population 7 million...id say 20% of the subforum is long island...it was an amazing storm Being in western suffolk for that baby was sweet...i remember that CCB drifting across the island, my god was it amazing, those snowfall rates were absolutely insane, 3-4 inches an hour easily...AMAZING STORM. We ended up with 17 from that puppy in huntington Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 Haha right...99%? im pretty sure all of nassau and suffolk got slammed...population 7 million...id say 20% of the subforum is long island...it was an amazing storm Being in western suffolk for that baby was sweet...i remember that CCB drifting across the island, my god was it amazing, those snowfall rates were absolutely insane, 3-4 inches an hour easily...AMAZING STORM. More like 3 million, but who is counting 4 million people? But I do get the point a lot of people were affected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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