psv88 Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 Alright im out, ill check back in a week, time to go back to the real world. We are giving away my fiance's dog this weekend so if i am on the computer ill get killed...need to be eh...supportive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 Dec 18 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 earthlights totals were bogus i know for a fact people witnessed him taking snow off his roof to pad the numbers. This has been the best 3 years of snow I can imagine..I have jackpotted in an almost unheard of amount of events...it is going to end sooner or later. And when it does, we will likely go back to the 3 years after 04 where I had the lowest total of anybody in the area for 50 storms in a row. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 i was just reading back at the threads when we got hammered by the deforms.."this is unbelievable, i have to go outside" The dramatics, the time of year, the end result...I have a hard time believing that any storm in my lifetime will beat that one. It was as if it was written for a weather weenie's movie script. The holiday, the miracle, everything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 I would imagine this has to do with climo more than anything, at least I hope. I am not sure if i agree with that because what happened in November? If we are saying it has to do with climo etc..Climo etc said highs should be in the 40s (at least where i am ) and the temperatures were in the 60s-70 range for alot of november.. So it goes deeper then climo ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 earthlights totals were bogus i know for a fact people witnessed him taking snow off his roof to pad the numbers. i think you need a radar loop refresher of that storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 If only it was 2 days earlier. I can't even imagine. The dramatics, the time of year, the end result...I have a hard time believing that any storm in my lifetime will beat that one. It was as if it was written for a weather weenie's movie script. The holiday, the miracle, everything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 If only it was 2 days earlier. I can't even imagine. It was perfect..joshua called me screaming like a schoolgirl Dec 24 12z... I remember I woke up and the first thing I posted was "IT'S A CHRISTMAS MIRACLE!" Absolute mayhem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 I went to bed so f**king pissed the night before too. I was on shift for the website so I was up until 5-6am...talking with baroclinic instability & dsnow in the nyc discussion thread about how the models were 25-50 miles away from bringing the shortwave from Manitoba straight down the plains and bringing this thing back...but it was a no go. Obviously they caught on and the rest is history. But I'll never forget analyzing that shortwave on water vapor and realizing it was THAT shortwave from Canada that was important and not the one that came ashore a day earlier on the West Coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 It was perfect..joshua called me screaming like a schoolgirl Dec 24 12z... I remember I woke up and the first thing I posted was "IT'S A CHRISTMAS MIRACLE!" Absolute mayhem. I remember that post! Then I believe hpc threw out the next 3 runs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 The dramatics, the time of year, the end result...I have a hard time believing that any storm in my lifetime will beat that one. It was as if it was written for a weather weenie's movie script. The holiday, the miracle, everything. +1 i stayed up the whole night and watched the superband just pound up and down the GSP....went for a couple walks and it was the heaviest snow ive ever been in. just absolute chaos. ive never seen so much rotation of a low on radar, wv, etc. its kind of shame it happened overnight though. when my brother woke up in the morning, he couldnt believe how much had fell. he called me and said, "um....how hard to did it snow overnight?". i just laughed......i couldnt explain it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 Steve D is going to be right. Watch. He could very well wind up correct on the idea that the pattern will go colder and there will be more snow chances but I'm not so sure we'll ever get enough sustained blocking this winter. The biggest concern I've got for my mild winter forecast is that the EPO stays negative and the AO eventually goes negative, if that happens I could wind up busting terribly on the temps. I still believe though there is a very slim chance NYC sees over 20 inches of snow this winter...even a -EPO/-AO pattern is still favorable for storms to tend to cut inland in the absence of the -NAO, 93-94 showed that with multiple inland runners and no true classic East Coast storms. My guess is there will be two 4-8 inch events, one some time in late January and another in March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 I just remember essentially giving up on Thursday after the euro bailed and then coming on here probably Friday evening when the shift was just getting under way. And it was like wow we really have a shot...and then within 12 hours every model was on board. I was basically in total disbelief that it was actually going to happen when just the day before it seemed hopeless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 I just remember essentially giving up on Thursday after the euro bailed and then coming on here probably Friday evening when the shift was just getting under way. And it was like wow we really have a shot...and then within 12 hours every model was on board. I was basically in total disbelief that it was actually going to happen when just the day before it seemed hopeless. there really wasnt a shift on friday though....the storm was locked in for a couple days but then thur nites 0z euro showed a whiff east. i dont recall other guidance on thur night showing this. so the people who live and die by the euro, like some well known met, cancelled the storm. while others still did not. on fri, other guidance really didnt shift to anything that they werent showing in the first place, i believe. euros 12z friday jumped right back on board i think. someone confirm this.....thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted December 9, 2011 Author Share Posted December 9, 2011 No doubt they are great forecasters but at the same time they have also failed in the past like most of Pro Mets & Hobbyists alike..They see things a certain way etc ..For example the MJO was already suppose to be in the COD and now it has the "appearance" that it could be heading into Phase 6 ..so the MJO has not exactly been stellar either... We had temperatures in the 60s and even in the 70s in November.. Now we have temperatures that really have not made it above 50 (yes still mild) However..that is a step down.... by about 10-20 degrees... Yes my friend....that is what usually happens when we go into december....temperatures get colder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 there really wasnt a shift on friday though....the storm was locked in for a couple days but then thur nites 0z euro showed a whiff east. i dont recall other guidance on thur night showing this. so the people who live and die by the euro, like some well known met, cancelled the storm. while others still did not. on fri, other guidance really didnt shift to anything that they werent showing in the first place, i believe. someone confirm this.....thanks! what i remember doing is throwing my laptop across the room when the dec 23rd 00z suite came in and they all cancelled the storm. Euro backed down as well. Then woke up on xmas eve to the 12z gfs which brought the storm back. HPC threw it out, and the rest is history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 Not quite. There was no model that I'm aware of outside of the nogaps or JMA that was showing the storm as of Thursday. The GFS was essentially a miss from Tuesday until sometime on Friday, even though it had the storm initially at least 10 days prior, though a day or two sooner. there really wasnt a shift on friday though....the storm was locked in for a couple days but then thur nites 0z euro showed a whiff east. i dont recall other guidance on thur night showing this. so the people who live and die by the euro, like some well known met, cancelled the storm. while others still did not. on fri, other guidance really didnt shift to anything that they werent showing in the first place, i believe. euros 12z friday jumped right back on board i think. someone confirm this.....thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 what i remember doing is throwing my laptop across the room when the dec 23rd 00z suite came in and they all cancelled the storm. Euro backed down as well. Then woke up on xmas eve to the 12z gfs which brought the storm back. HPC threw it out, and the rest is history i remember kicking my neighbors dog...i would never do that to my macbook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 Not quite. There was no model that I'm aware of outside of the nogaps or JMA that was showing the storm as of Thursday. The GFS was essentially a miss from Tuesday until sometime on Friday, even though it had the storm initially at least 10 days prior, though a day or two sooner. gfs was always a miss, the usual SE bias in play. but i believe it was the euro and euro alone that completely flipped on thur night. well have to get earthlight in here cuz i know he savored every single map that week leading up to it. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 Not quite. There was no model that I'm aware of outside of the nogaps or JMA that was showing the storm as of Thursday. The GFS was essentially a miss from Tuesday until sometime on Friday, even though it had the storm initially at least 10 days prior, though a day or two sooner. It was the 12z models on 12/24 especially the GFS..NCEP disregarded it because they said there was bad data..quite a day..a storm I will never forget!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 The Euro had the storm on Wednesday's afternoon run and was showing a HECS. By that point the GFS lost it and no other model showed it to the magnitude of the euro. It then lost the storm for at least 3 runs and by Thursday there was no model showing us getting anything. It wasn't until Friday that the models started coming back to the idea of a storm. gfs was always a miss, the usual SE bias in play. but i believe it was the euro and euro alone that completely flipped on thur night. well have to get earthlight in here cuz i know he savored every single map that week leading up to it. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 It was the 12z models on 12/24 especially the GFS..NCEP disregarded it because they said there was bad data..quite a day..a storm I will never forget!!! The thing I did not understand was that the ensembles showed it too and they disregarded those, my understanding is that with the different set of initial conditions in all of the ensembles that you would almost certainly then have to take the run seriously. I think when the 18Z NAM came on everyone started to believe it, but there were still naysayers claiming the 18Z NAM could have been entraining some of the data the 12Z GFS had, so they continued pushing it off til the 00Z runs that night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 The thing I did not understand was that the ensembles showed it too and they disregarded those, my understanding is that with the different set of initial conditions in all of the ensembles that you would almost certainly then have to take the run seriously. I think when the 18Z NAM came on everyone started to believe it, but there were still naysayers claiming the 18Z NAM could have been entraining some of the data the 12Z GFS had, so they continued pushing it off til the 00Z runs that night. yep remember it well..I guess it spoiled us think every December has to have a blizzard.We are feeling the pain this year..but overall it was quite an exciting year of weather with an earthquake thrown in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 maybe for your location Pretty sure your location got close to 30" from 1996. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 It was perfect..joshua called me screaming like a schoolgirl Dec 24 12z... I remember I woke up and the first thing I posted was "IT'S A CHRISTMAS MIRACLE!" Absolute mayhem. The way everything transpired was amazing. But 1996 was also like this. Most models had the storm surpressed, right until 24-36 hours before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 The way everything transpired was amazing. But 1996 was also like this. Most models had the storm surpressed, right until 24-36 hours before. the difference is the duration. Only a few of us here know what its like to watch it snow for 36 hours and never slow down in intensity except for a small break for SOME people. The youngins like earthlight, CooL have never seen that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 the difference is the duration. Only a few of us here know what its like to watch it snow for 36 hours and never slow down in intensity except for a small break for SOME people. The youngins like earthlight, CooL have never seen that. We had that in the mountains of VA for '96, heavy snow from Saturday afternoon until Monday morning, piled up about 40 or so inches in the valley and 50+ up in the mountains. Unreal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 + The dramatics, the time of year, the end result...I have a hard time believing that any storm in my lifetime will beat that one. It was as if it was written for a weather weenie's movie script. The holiday, the miracle, everything. +1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 It was almost as if Al Gore was bribing the HPC to throw out the 12/24 model runs. I also remember MildoSnowMaker, who is a moderator in the Mid-Atlantic thread, coming into these forums and banning Colin for eternity due to his nagging bittercasting. In the 0z 12/22 model runs when the GFS, GGEM and UK all showed the storm as a near-miss, he was like "this storm is not happening; only the Euro is on our side right now." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 It was the 12z models on 12/24 especially the GFS..NCEP disregarded it because they said there was bad data..quite a day..a storm I will never forget!!! The 12z Euro ensembles had the storm on 12/24. The op didn't at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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