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Banter and BS December 2011


Alpha5

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It is until around hr. 150. After that, the 540 line and 850 line move to the south.

http://www.meteo.psu...op.html#picture

It still has a SE ridge, but it looks better than the GFS in regards to temps.

true... but depending on how that 2nd cutoff evolves off the California coast, I would actually expect the ridge to possibly rebuild itself again if that cutoff moves eastward in the southwestern U.S.

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true... but depending on how that 2nd cutoff evolves off the California coast, I would actually expect the ridge to possibly rebuild itself again if that cutoff moves eastward in the southwestern U.S.

Won't argue with you there; it could still go to crap. But I guess it doesn't look completely hopeless long range.

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Today's 12 Z run of the ECM shears out the system for the 19-20th time frame..At 204 hrs there is a low pressure developing over TX with cold air over most of the country... At 210 hrs it starts to move east.. but by 222 hrs it just shears out so nothing but light moisture along the gulf stretched out west to east.. Another low which was off the coast of Southern CAL then moves east and is in the SW/TX region by 240 hours...temps at 222 hrs which is 18 Z sunday are only in the 30s and at 240 hrs they are in the 20s! So the moral of the story is this run has changed by shearing out the system but it is still cold ..though at 240 you do see a SE Ridge...

Temperatures at 198 hrs are only in the lower to mid 30s for high temperatures so if the energy does not get sheared out....well..

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You need to start listening to the right mets.

HM, Wes (usedtobe), ORH, Coastal, Ctrain plus a few others.

And a non-met Donsutherland.

No doubt they are great forecasters but at the same time they have also failed in the past like most of Pro Mets & Hobbyists alike..They see things a certain way etc ..For example the MJO was already suppose to be in the COD and now it has the "appearance" that it could be heading into Phase 6 ..so the MJO has not exactly been stellar either...

We had temperatures in the 60s and even in the 70s in November..

Now we have temperatures that really have not made it above 50 (yes still mild)

However..that is a step down.... by about 10-20 degrees...

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once in 20 year storm

i was just reading back at the threads when we got hammered by the deforms.."this is unbelievable, i have to go outside"

meh, 1996 was better.

1. you didnt get as much snow as us

2. you are much older so you remember 1996 much better

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No doubt they are great forecasters but at the same time they have also failed in the past like most of Pro Mets & Hobbyists alike..They see things a certain way etc ..For example the MJO was already suppose to be in the COD and now it has the "appearance" that it could be heading into Phase 6 ..so the MJO has not exactly been stellar either...

We had temperatures in the 60s and even in the 70s in November..

Now we have temperatures that really have not made it above 50 (yes still mild)

However..that is a step down.... by about 10-20 degrees...

I would imagine this has to do with climo more than anything, at least I hope.

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i was just reading back at the threads when we got hammered by the deforms.."this is unbelievable, i have to go outside"

1. you didnt get as much snow as us

2. you are much older so you remember 1996 much better

earthlights totals were bogus i know for a fact people witnessed him taking snow off his roof to pad the numbers.

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