tornadojay Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 The 12z CMC is a horrendous pattern. Lakes cutters galore and se ridge galore. yep.. the ridge really starts establishing itself once the pattern goes into split-flow and that cut-off develops in the southwest... and it looks like it take a firm hold and doesn't want to let up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 I do not get why some meteorologists think the pattern is going to change soon and some do not. I think it's just the unpredictability of weather. Some people here even see one model run more positively than others, much less a pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 It is until around hr. 150. After that, the 540 line and 850 line move to the south. http://www.meteo.psu...op.html#picture It still has a SE ridge, but it looks better than the GFS in regards to temps. true... but depending on how that 2nd cutoff evolves off the California coast, I would actually expect the ridge to possibly rebuild itself again if that cutoff moves eastward in the southwestern U.S. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 true... but depending on how that 2nd cutoff evolves off the California coast, I would actually expect the ridge to possibly rebuild itself again if that cutoff moves eastward in the southwestern U.S. Won't argue with you there; it could still go to crap. But I guess it doesn't look completely hopeless long range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 I do not get why some meteorologists think the pattern is going to change soon and some do not. And some people are conservative while others are liberal...people disagree. Talking weather wouldn't be as fun if everyone agreed all the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 White flag almost in hand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 The mother of all lakes cutters setting up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 I do not get why some meteorologists think the pattern is going to change soon and some do not. You need to start listening to the right mets. HM, Wes (usedtobe), ORH, Coastal, Ctrain plus a few others. And a non-met Donsutherland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 Today's 12 Z run of the ECM shears out the system for the 19-20th time frame..At 204 hrs there is a low pressure developing over TX with cold air over most of the country... At 210 hrs it starts to move east.. but by 222 hrs it just shears out so nothing but light moisture along the gulf stretched out west to east.. Another low which was off the coast of Southern CAL then moves east and is in the SW/TX region by 240 hours...temps at 222 hrs which is 18 Z sunday are only in the 30s and at 240 hrs they are in the 20s! So the moral of the story is this run has changed by shearing out the system but it is still cold ..though at 240 you do see a SE Ridge... Temperatures at 198 hrs are only in the lower to mid 30s for high temperatures so if the energy does not get sheared out....well.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 You need to start listening to the right mets. HM, Wes (usedtobe), ORH, Coastal, Ctrain plus a few others. And a non-met Donsutherland. No doubt they are great forecasters but at the same time they have also failed in the past like most of Pro Mets & Hobbyists alike..They see things a certain way etc ..For example the MJO was already suppose to be in the COD and now it has the "appearance" that it could be heading into Phase 6 ..so the MJO has not exactly been stellar either... We had temperatures in the 60s and even in the 70s in November.. Now we have temperatures that really have not made it above 50 (yes still mild) However..that is a step down.... by about 10-20 degrees... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 Bad trick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 once in 20 year storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 once in 20 year storm meh, 1996 was better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 Anyone watch Steve ds video? Rather informative he was using physics not models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 meh, 1996 was better. maybe for your location Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 If i didn't live through that storm, i'd call that map BULLSH-T... We may never see a map like that again.. wow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 If i didn't live through that storm, i'd call that map BULLSH-T... We may never see a map like that again.. wow! The board was so crazy that storm was abs insane Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 Steve D is going to be right. Watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 Steve D is going to be right. Watch. I hope lol well see sooner or later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 once in 20 year storm i was just reading back at the threads when we got hammered by the deforms.."this is unbelievable, i have to go outside" meh, 1996 was better. 1. you didnt get as much snow as us 2. you are much older so you remember 1996 much better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 I think its time for a new contest...next 1" snowfall in central park Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 I think its time for a new contest...next 1" snowfall in central park January 11, 2012. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 I think its time for a new contest...next 1" snowfall in central park Dec 15 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 Dec 15 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 No doubt they are great forecasters but at the same time they have also failed in the past like most of Pro Mets & Hobbyists alike..They see things a certain way etc ..For example the MJO was already suppose to be in the COD and now it has the "appearance" that it could be heading into Phase 6 ..so the MJO has not exactly been stellar either... We had temperatures in the 60s and even in the 70s in November.. Now we have temperatures that really have not made it above 50 (yes still mild) However..that is a step down.... by about 10-20 degrees... I would imagine this has to do with climo more than anything, at least I hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 I think its time for a new contest...next 1" snowfall in central park I'm tapped out, let earthlight do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 i was just reading back at the threads when we got hammered by the deforms.."this is unbelievable, i have to go outside" 1. you didnt get as much snow as us 2. you are much older so you remember 1996 much better earthlights totals were bogus i know for a fact people witnessed him taking snow off his roof to pad the numbers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 earthlights totals were bogus i know for a fact people witnessed him taking snow off his roof to pad the numbers. Yeah it was on Shame on you on fox 5 remember ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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