ag3 Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 That Ridge in the Atlantic is ridiculous on the GFS. At least the frontal passage is getting closer and closer and not being delayed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 Front comes through Wednesday night on GFS. Only 6 days away. Bad sign is when models keep delaying cold fronts. At least this one seems like it will actually occur: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 Really nice radiational cooling event for the usual spots Saturday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 We're trending in the right direction - it's getting colder outside. Today feels like the beginning of December - mid/upper 40s, brilliant sun, and brisk NW wind. The next several days will be near normal, then with the front next week we'll finally go below normal for the first time in what seems like ages. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 This run actually gives interior New England some snow from the CCB of the post frontal storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
benfica356 Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 its trending for the better so far, but we just need more cold air. A 1019mb high won't give us that and based on this GFS run, it is brief cold then back to warm with the ridging Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 Yeah but 95-96 was 4 1/2 months of winter with a few breaks in between. Last year was basically a 4 to 6 week period of incredible wintry weather. It's pretty rare to have significant snow in November, Dec, Jan, Feb, March and April in the same winter The February 1-2, 2011 blizzard was hugely dynamic, and a few Mets on here were saying if it tracked up the coast, it would have been the biggest blizzard we have ever seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 what are the odds october ends up more snowy than december in central park? 2.9" in the park in october. if you had to bet... which month would you put money on? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 According to the GFS: take a break from tracking weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 A few cold days, a few avg/slightly above average days, and then cooler at the end on the GFS. We need that Atlantic to cooperate! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 According to the GFS: take a break from tracking weather. It's that f'in bad?? Shades of 97-98 appear to be coming true.. I think it was really warm during the christmas timeframe in 1997.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 what are the odds october ends up more snowy than december in central park? 2.9" in the park in october. if you had to bet... which month would you put money on? Funny thing is, there are pretty strong statistics that indicate < 3" of snow in NYC prior to Jan 1 leads to below avg seasonal snowfall, while > 3" by Jan 1 generally leads to above normal winters. So technically we only need a few tenths to be on the right side of the fence, but I'd feel more comfortable if Dec penciled in at least a few inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 Front comes through Wednesday night on GFS. Only 6 days away. Bad sign is when models keep delaying cold fronts. At least this one seems like it will actually occur: I this what we have been reduced to? Looking for cold fronts at 160 hours? 24 hours later the ridge is back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 I this what we have been reduced to? Looking for cold fronts at 160 hours? 24 hours later the ridge is back. We have to look for what the pattern gives us. We will see some cold, but need blocking to show up to give us good snow chances. It's hard to say when that will happen. Until then, we look for well-timed events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 I this what we have been reduced to? Looking for cold fronts at 160 hours? 24 hours later the ridge is back. What a difference a year makes - sneering and mocking 12" snowstorms to falling on our hands and knees begging for a day of below average temps. Feels like last winter is worlds away at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 I this what we have been reduced to? Looking for cold fronts at 160 hours? 24 hours later the ridge is back. The cold fronts even have a tough time getting to the east coast..at least 01-02 had a few days of cold weather at times..if you cant a front thru this time of year it's quite remarkable..if 12z OP GFS is to be believed it would be another record warm month for December..being this it is a weak to mod Nina..are there any analogs for the warmth we have seen so far? 98-99?..strong first year nina after massive nino..99-00?..maybe? or hopefully 67-68..winter set in right after Christmas..very cold January Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 2000 barely made it but there was <3 until the 30th. 2004 and 1986 were also below and ended up near or above normal (both had significant storms on January 22nd) Funny thing is, there are pretty strong statistics that indicate < 3" of snow in NYC prior to Jan 1 leads to below avg seasonal snowfall, while > 3" by Jan 1 generally leads to above normal winters. So technically we only need a few tenths to be on the right side of the fence, but I'd feel more comfortable if Dec penciled in at least a few inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 Anyone have a good joke? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 We were bound to get a crappy winter eventually. Also we still have January and February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 Anyone have a good joke? Yeah. Here's one: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 Anyone want to guess who will snap by january and get suspended? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 Anyone want to guess who will snap by january and get suspended? You know its bad when, from the map I posted, Death Valley, CA and Las Vegas are colder then Vermont, in Mid-December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 Anyone want to guess who will snap by january and get suspended? most of the worst have been weeded out already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 JB updated his winter call-mostly ave temps here (NYC METRO) with average snows...he pulled the above normal snow line back northwest--calls for alot of cutters with some secondarying. temp map looks more like a gradient pattern....says a warm Jan would lead to a cold Feb/Mar, but says a cold Jan would give us the opposite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 Wow thats the same as my forecast. Around normal snow but could be more, but maybe not, Some cold but could be warm. That's worse than the "equal chances" of above/below/normal. Just curious why does Feb/March have to be the opposite of January? The past 2 winters all 3 months were very different in terms of temps and snow. JB updated his winter call-mostly ave temps here (NYC METRO) with average snows...he pulled the above normal snow line back northwest--calls for alot of cutters with some secondarying. temp map looks more like a gradient pattern....says a warm Jan would lead to a cold Feb/Mar, but says a cold Jan would give us the opposite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 JB updated his winter call-mostly ave temps here (NYC METRO) with average snows...he pulled the above normal snow line back northwest--calls for alot of cutters with some secondarying. temp map looks more like a gradient pattern....says a warm Jan would lead to a cold Feb/Mar, but says a cold Jan would give us the opposite. Pretty big backing off if you ask me - we're now on the warm side of normal instead of cold, and on the below side of normal rather than above in terms of snowfall. Even JB seems to be caving a bit. I'm still confident in my above norm snow call for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 Pretty big backing off if you ask me - we're now on the warm side of normal instead of cold, and on the below side of normal rather than above in terms of snowfall. Even JB seems to be caving a bit. I'm still confident in my above norm snow call for now. based on what Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 Interestingly, JB thinks the next 2 winters will be very cold for the nation as a whole-he says that today and has hinted at that before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 What happened to 83 cold? Worse still this looks like a three year nina now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 What happened to 83 cold? Worse still this looks like a three year nina now. He didnt talk about that-the post was an update on his winter call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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