MJO812 Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 I considered this but the DMV charges way more money for the alternate test sites. I payed 285 for 5 lessons, the road test, 5 hours class and the car for the test. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 Very exciting stuff here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 Heres the running archive for this winter, btw http://nymetrowx.blogspot.com/p/winter-storm-archive-2011-2012.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 Heres the running archive for this winter, btw http://nymetrowx.blo...-2011-2012.html Earthlight, do you see any light at the end of the tunnel?!?!?!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 Earthlight, do you see any light at the end of the tunnel?!?!?!? It's def. possible we squeeze something in around Dec 20 but the overall pattern doesn't want to budge until Jan. My Dec 15 pattern change idea from Oct looks to be going down in flames...which is fine...live and learn. SWFE would be the general storm type through the holidays. I can't say I agree with anybody arguing for this pattern to flip by Christmas...I've seen the posts & videos etc. The stratosphere is in hibernation...there is very little support for high latitude ridging. There are some better signs in the QBO 30/50 but those can often have a 1 or even 2 month lag. The MJO is also in terrible shape..looping through the COD and then back into unfavorable stages 3-4-5 which takes us to the first week of Jan. Whwre do we go from there? I don't know. This is not to say we can't sneak something in/small events before then. But the overall pattern is crap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 This guy now works with me at CVS. http://www.barynya.com/RussianSinger/VLADIMIR_LOGINOV.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted December 9, 2011 Author Share Posted December 9, 2011 12z GFS is more of the same Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 12z GFS is more of the same At least it's stormy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 It's def. possible we squeeze something in around Dec 20 but the overall pattern doesn't want to budge until Jan. My Dec 15 pattern change idea from Oct looks to be going down in flames...which is fine...live and learn. SWFE would be the general storm type through the holidays. I can't say I agree with anybody arguing for this pattern to flip by Christmas...I've seen the posts & videos etc. The stratosphere is in hibernation...there is very little support for high latitude ridging. There are some better signs in the QBO 30/50 but those can often have a 1 or even 2 month lag. The MJO is also in terrible shape..looping through the COD and then back into unfavorable stages 3-4-5 which takes us to the first week of Jan. Whwre do we go from there? I don't know. This is not to say we can't sneak something in/small events before then. But the overall pattern is crap. Why do you say doesnt want to budge until january when you have no evidence to back this up...not criticizing just asking... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 It's def. possible we squeeze something in around Dec 20 but the overall pattern doesn't want to budge until Jan. My Dec 15 pattern change idea from Oct looks to be going down in flames...which is fine...live and learn. SWFE would be the general storm type through the holidays. I can't say I agree with anybody arguing for this pattern to flip by Christmas...I've seen the posts & videos etc. The stratosphere is in hibernation...there is very little support for high latitude ridging. There are some better signs in the QBO 30/50 but those can often have a 1 or even 2 month lag. The MJO is also in terrible shape..looping through the COD and then back into unfavorable stages 3-4-5 which takes us to the first week of Jan. Whwre do we go from there? I don't know. This is not to say we can't sneak something in/small events before then. But the overall pattern is crap. Do you think we might get into a pattern if things become more favorable that is similar to what we experienced in 08-09 because I'd be overjoyed if we get something mirroring that winter at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 Meteorologist Rich Hoffman on facebook. happy weekend.. clouds around on saturday and very cold saturday night.. brrr. i think snow towards christmas..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 I love these random prognostications of snow around x-mas---people say that every year just to keep hope alive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 Why do you say doesnt want to budge until january when you have no evidence to back this up...not criticizing just asking... I just listed all the reasons...the MJO is traversing through unfavorable stages...forecast to do a complete loop through the same ones we were just in. Look up the 500mb and 2mT composites for MJO phases 2-5 in December...and you will find a very similar pattern to the one we have been in. I also spoke about the stratosphere and how it doesn't support any high latitude ridging...and it makes perfect sense to see the PV parked over Greenland and the Davis Straight through the end of almost all the global ensembles. Not sure what other evidence you were looking for Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 I love these random prognostications of snow around x-mas---people say that every year just to keep hope alive. He's often really conservative on his calls. His is on metro traffic and weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 I just listed all the reasons...the MJO is traversing through unfavorable stages...forecast to do a complete loop through the same ones we were just in. Look up the 500mb and 2mT composites for MJO phases 2-5 in December...and you will find a very similar pattern to the one we have been in. I also spoke about the stratosphere and how it doesn't support any high latitude ridging...and it makes perfect sense to see the PV parked over Greenland and the Davis Straight through the end of almost all the global ensembles. Not sure what other evidence you were looking for Sorry i guess i didnt word it right. I meant, what evidence is there to show it actually will budge in january....and not stay terrible all winter.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 It's def. possible we squeeze something in around Dec 20 but the overall pattern doesn't want to budge until Jan. My Dec 15 pattern change idea from Oct looks to be going down in flames...which is fine...live and learn. SWFE would be the general storm type through the holidays. I can't say I agree with anybody arguing for this pattern to flip by Christmas...I've seen the posts & videos etc. The stratosphere is in hibernation...there is very little support for high latitude ridging. There are some better signs in the QBO 30/50 but those can often have a 1 or even 2 month lag. The MJO is also in terrible shape..looping through the COD and then back into unfavorable stages 3-4-5 which takes us to the first week of Jan. Whwre do we go from there? I don't know. This is not to say we can't sneak something in/small events before then. But the overall pattern is crap. I'm pretty much agree. I think it's unclear when we'll see the -QBO have an impact on Pacific or Atlantic side. Most of the convection with the MJO, is over Indonesia. That's supports a ridge more south between Hawaii and the Aluetains, than on the West Coast. The MJO has been stronger than forecast so far. So I'm not sure about a complete collapse in the COD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 Sorry i guess i didnt word it right. I meant, what evidence is there to show it actually will budge in january....and not stay terrible all winter.. I've been on the "late winter QBO effects/stratospheric changes" train...I think Tom is as well. The QBO changes rolled forward would eventually have some positive effects on the pattern. I think eventually we will see some blocking return. It's just a matter of when.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 JB also thinks a pattern change is coming soon. He was talking about the split flow and the positive pna in his morning video. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 Steven Demartino said in his video last night that people who are calling for a mild winter are going to fail miserably. That may be one of the more "BULLISH" statements I've ever heard. Does he own a sabrett hot dog stand ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 JB also thinks a pattern change is coming soon. He was talking about the split flow and the positive pna in his morning video. That was a crap shoot on yesterday's 12z euro. Since then, models are back to showing a hideous pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 the lack of cold air is pretty unbelievable.. especially the first part of next week.. you're hard-pressed to find really any part of the country below -4C at 850 mb.. and the majority of the country is above 0C... and aside from transient shots of relatively colder air, you really don't see any penetration of arctic air really anywhere in the country. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 the lack of cold air is pretty unbelievable.. especially the first part of next week.. you're hard-pressed to find really any part of the country below -4C at 850 mb.. and the majority of the country is above 0C... and aside from transient shots of relatively colder air, you really don't see any penetration of arctic air really anywhere in the country. It's all near the poles and over the areas where we want blocking. Fantastic right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 You guys all know I'll be the first one tossing weenies in the air and screaming and running in circles when the pattern looks great. But it's not there right now. Nothing else to really say about it that hasn't already been said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 It's all near the poles and over the areas where we want blocking. Fantastic right? i know.. seriously.. what a horror show.... who are we sending up to the north pole for christmas to drag that stuff down here.. and while they're at it... blow-torch greenland or something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 You guys all know I'll be the first one tossing weenies in the air and screaming and running in circles when the pattern looks great. But it's not there right now. Nothing else to really say about it that hasn't already been said. John, what I find even more amazing is the duration of time now that has elapsed where things aren't looking too good.. and we're looking for some kind of sign in the long range to see if something significant is gonna change.. and it's just not there.. it's like I'm looking at the same exact things... every single day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 That was a crap shoot on yesterday's 12z euro. Since then, models are back to showing a hideous pattern. The GFS the last 2 runs, but something still looked strange with what it did with that storm after the cutter. The CMC and Euro appear to have nothing like it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 The GFS the last 2 runs, but something still looked strange with what it did with that storm after the cutter. The CMC and Euro appear to have nothing like it. The 12z CMC is a horrendous pattern. Lakes cutters galore and se ridge galore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 You know its a desperate time when you start looking to the NOAGPS and at 180hrs none the less, but this has to be the "best" looking model run I have seen out there, the run ends a few days before the 20th. At least there is some sign of west coast ridgding, although too far west and a trough in the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 I do not get why some meteorologists think the pattern is going to change soon and some do not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 The 12z CMC is a horrendous pattern. Lakes cutters galore and se ridge galore. It is until around hr. 150. After that, the 540 line and 850 line move to the south. http://www.meteo.psu...op.html#picture It still has a SE ridge, but it looks better than the GFS in regards to temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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