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Banter and BS December 2011


Alpha5

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I didn't know Islip went to 28, that's interesting and it probably explains why the grass is so brown out there. I almost always forget about the North Shore to be honest, I forget that it's usually colder.

Quick climate lesson for the (very obviously) uninitiated:

On January 22, 1961 Upton in Suffolk County, LI saw the temperature fall to -23 F...that is 23 degrees below zero.

That same morning, the lowest temperature recorded in NYC Central Park was +11 F...for a 34 degree spread between the two stations.

When anticyclonic conditions are prevalent (clear skies, little wind) the difference between Long Island and NYC morning minimums are substantial...generally from 10 to 20 degrees and sometimes even greater...often greater than many of the celebrated "northern and western" suburbs.

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Because a lot of people drive before with Permits and develop the bad relaxed driving skills and you lose points for that

I guess in nj it is easier. It was 16 years ago for me, but I don't remember it being that hard or the instructors being that strict. Good luck!

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Quick climate lesson for the (very obviously) uninitiated:

On January 22, 1961 Upton in Suffolk County, LI saw the temperature fall to -23 F...that is 23 degrees below zero.

That same morning, the lowest temperature recorded in NYC Central Park was +11 F...for a 34 degree spread between the two stations.

When anticyclonic conditions are prevalent (clear skies, little wind) the difference between Long Island and NYC morning minimums are substantial...generally from 10 to 20 degrees and sometimes even greater...often greater than many of the celebrated "northern and western" suburbs.

I routinely have a 5 to 10 degree spread at night between LGA and/or KNYC and I'm still technically within NYC!

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Quick climate lesson for the (very obviously) uninitiated:

On January 22, 1961 Upton in Suffolk County, LI saw the temperature fall to -23 F...that is 23 degrees below zero.

That same morning, the lowest temperature recorded in NYC Central Park was +11 F...for a 34 degree spread between the two stations.

When anticyclonic conditions are prevalent (clear skies, little wind) the difference between Long Island and NYC morning minimums are substantial...generally from 10 to 20 degrees and sometimes even greater...often greater than many of the celebrated "northern and western" suburbs.

Upton also in first place with regards to local snowfall over the last 3 years....albeit admittedly not up against the "heavyweights" of the OKX CWA...

Three Year Average Snowfall: 2008-09, 2009-10, and 2010-11:

Upton: 57.4"

Islip: 48.4"

Bridgeport: 47.9"

Newark: 47.7"

CPK: 47.0"

LGA: 40.2"

JFK: 37.2"

(It has been a lousy start to the season out here and I need something to brag about....)

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Steve d isn't that bad I like the fact when he does bust he admits it and explains why

explain to me how someone who says the precip will end at 6am when the radar shows the back edge coming through the area at 1am isn't bad? It's not like he made a forecast and busted which we all do, its that he pretended that somehow the storm was going to create precip that wasn't there.

I don't understand that.

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Why is it so hard, i don't get it?

Because the DMV testers want you to "walk a very fine line," so to speak, when they command you to perform certain maneuvers. For example, they want you to precisely execute a turn down to the very path they deem to be fit at an intersection, with almost no room for error. If you are off by a couple of inches, you are screwed and they penalize you for that.

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explain to me how someone who says the precip will end at 6am when the radar shows the back edge coming through the area at 1am isn't bad? It's not like he made a forecast and busted which we all do, its that he pretended that somehow the storm was going to create precip that wasn't there.

I don't understand that.

Yeah he does that a lot he says ends to early or to late, but he is also right a lot

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like your forecasts, your bets are wrong too.

I was one of the first to honk on 10/29 . Go look at the threads.

And being realistic and recogonizing how bad this pattern is isn't being negative, its being intelligent, but keep humping the nogaps and relying on DT, that should work out well for you.

Like my forecasts?

When are you going to come back with something that is not insult focused?

Humping the NOGAPS? I can not help if you do not understand how that model is to be used.

I can not help that you do not realize that before the UKMET showed the very far western track the NOGAPS showed the very far western track. If you do not understand it so be it..I have even had pro mets now recognize the NOGAPS as the tool for what it is,

It is not rocket science it is simply the most progressive biased model and if that shows a storm consistently closer to the coast (AKA Hugging the coast) then there is a very high chance that any models that are further east are going to come back west..and we seen this the past storm system ONCE again. What was the final result? Now why is this the case? Because a very biased progressive model should be further NE off the coast. The very fact that it was going against its bias was a red flag. Research and watch the model you might learn this is the case.

My track record speaks for itself and I have called temperature anomalies for winters in advance by 9 months.

I started talking about the mid month potential storm Nov 30th.. (now they are showing it)

I forecasted the October 29th storm 10 days in advance of the NWS...local stations who were the day before calling for 1-3 inches of snow, two days before they were calling for only rain, when ABE got 6.8 at the airport and 10.2 on the south side of Allentown on South Mountain...

I been offered internships for local radio/tv station back in the mid 2000s but i turned them down..

So lets cut to the chase..where oh where can i find your forecasts because apparently you no nothing about mine...? Link me to them...

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Like my forecasts?

When are you going to come back with something that is not insult focused?

Humping the NOGAPS? I can not help if you do not understand how that model is to be used.

I can not help that you do not realize that before the UKMET showed the very far western track the NOGAPS showed the very far western track. If you do not understand it so be it..I have even had pro mets now recognize the NOGAPS as the tool for what it is,

It is not rocket science it is simply the most progressive biased model and if that shows a storm consistently closer to the coast (AKA Hugging the coast) then there is a very high chance that any models that are further east are going to come back west..and we seen this the past storm system ONCE again. What was the final result? Now why is this the case? Because a very biased progressive model should be further NE off the coast. The very fact that it was going against its bias was a red flag. Research and watch the model you might learn this is the case.

My track record speaks for itself and I have called temperature anomalies for winters in advance by 9 months.

I started talking about the mid month potential storm Nov 30th.. (now they are showing it)

I forecasted the October 29th storm 10 days in advance of the NWS...local stations who were the day before calling for 1-3 inches of snow, two days before they were calling for only rain, when ABE got 6.8 at the airport and 10.2 on the south side of Allentown on South Mountain...

I been offered internships for local radio/tv station back in the mid 2000s but i turned them down..

So lets cut to the chase..where oh where can i find your forecasts because apparently you no nothing about mine...? Link me to them...

Ok nostradamous. Good luck to you.

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Didn't you know? CooL can see things 10 days in advance. He has been offered multiple internships and radio shows for his talents, but hasn't accepted anything.

It's why he is so CooL.

the lakers called me first about playing backcourt along side kobe but i denied them. Looks like paul got the job today..

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Quick climate lesson for the (very obviously) uninitiated:

On January 22, 1961 Upton in Suffolk County, LI saw the temperature fall to -23 F...that is 23 degrees below zero.

That same morning, the lowest temperature recorded in NYC Central Park was +11 F...for a 34 degree spread between the two stations.

When anticyclonic conditions are prevalent (clear skies, little wind) the difference between Long Island and NYC morning minimums are substantial...generally from 10 to 20 degrees and sometimes even greater...often greater than many of the celebrated "northern and western" suburbs.

...enjoy your posts,william..out here in eastport i get to enjoy the colder side of the wide

temperture difference..its pretty amazing..even now @11pm i'm @ 26.8* while nyc is around 40*.

..another contributing factor is the sandy soil thats prevalent in the pine barrens..

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