stormspotterlive Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 GFS going bonkers with the PV which leads to suppression. at hour 84 there is a 952 low with the PV in Canada for US standards that would be close to if not a record low pressure reading High chance here that the PV is overdone. seams as if we see this issue A lot fall through winter. Expect to see this corrected on future runs. For what ever it is worth the NAM is 14mb's weaker with the PV low. will be interesting to see what the rest of the models do with the PV. Would like to also see if the 00z GEFS mean and its ensembles prove that op is over doing the PV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 Since this is, after all, the Banter and BS thread, I thought that I might share a few 0Z GEFS ENS Clown Maps off of Raliegh WX that were interesting... The c000 Snow Clown Map shows several inches of snow for most of NJ. The p002 Snow Clown Map slams PA with snow. On the n001 Clown Map NW NJ does well. The n005 Snow Clown Map shows that PA does well again. Hopefully this post made some :weenie: sleep better tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 Quick look at the 00z euro. It says no to storm 1 and a lakes cutter for storm 2. Also says no to blocking/cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 Quick look at the 00z euro. It says no to storm 1 and a lakes cutter for storm 2. Also says no to blocking/cold. I wouldn't get down over one model run with all the model madness. The black 0c 850 line looks below NYC (and PHL) for much of the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 Yes high temperatures in the 30s at 162 hours is not cold... That same night lows are in the 20s Next day highs are in the 30s Lows in the 20s Then warms in to the low to mid 40s ...before another cold shot comes and this is not taking into account the ensemble means nine out of ten will be colder.. Yes when you had highs in the 60s or 70s ...30s and 40s is not cold The storm in the 96-120 hrs is also shunted south and east.. This would be the wave that develops after the front moves thru... It looks in good position with the NOGAPS... UKMET goes up the coast... GFS means goes up the coast... GGEM forms at 96 but then shears it out.. (though the precip shown is rain where the precip goes) ... The latter storm on the ECM looks more like a cold front moving east attached to a low pressure in southern canada moving west to east with moisture that comes across the southeast and moves Northeast... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 The ecm ensemble means are not cold either.. Temp anomalies at 850 144 168 There after it goes to more of a gradient pattern.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 Say hello to the 6 Z GFS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 Yep, soundings are ALL snow at NYC. Looks like about 5 or 6 inches. This run is nearly identical to the Euro control run of 12z yesterday that I talked about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 Say hello to the 6 Z GFS... That is about the best we could hope for with this, not supressed and not too wrapped up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 Soundings are all snow with .56 at NYC, .44 at Morristown, .43 at Caldwell, .32 at Andover Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 probably above freezing for the island though i presume?? i'm still hoping to see any mangled flakes though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 Soundings are all snow with .56 at NYC, .44 at Morristown, .43 at Caldwell, .32 at Andover Like i said yesterday i like to use the NOGAPS as a tool and it showed at 00z the exact same position as the OP GFS and the ECM essentially... This told me that those two models were in error and they would move towards correction the next run.. This looks more like the GFS means now.. FWIW the 6 Z Nogaps is almost identical track wise ends up off cape cod..So this could slow down some more and come more west... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 probably above freezing for the island though i presume?? i'm still hoping to see any mangled flakes though... Looks to be in the 30s but not behind the blue line ..not sure the exact cause i have not looked at the soundings as getting ready to hit the sack!.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 Like i said yesterday i like to use the NOGAPS as a tool and it showed at 00z the exact same position as the OP GFS and the ECM essentially... This told me that those two models were in error and they would move towards correction the next run.. This looks more like the GFS means now.. FWIW the 6 Z Nogaps is almost identical track wise ends up off cape cod..So this could slow down some more and come more west... It better not! It should pan out just as GFS currently shows, there would be A LOT of happy posters on this board and we wouldn't have to hear the constant complaints and winter is canceled posts nonstop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 It better not! It should pan out just as GFS currently shows, there would be A LOT of happy posters on this board and we wouldn't have to hear the constant complaints and winter is canceled posts nonstop. Should not have to hear them anyway. Most just do not understand how the cold air is coming and when some try to explain it they do not want to hear it because it goes against there thinking... I been calling for this storm to be a rain changing to snow event for about a week out now... None of this above with the GFS comes as a surprise to me... Have a good night! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 Me neither. My forecast as well for about the same amount of time. Your thoughts on the Nogaps are accurate. By the way the 6z GEFS mean takes the low from Georgia to eastern Massachusetts to Nova Scotia, slightly west of the operational run, just like you said, but just as cold as the operational run, with plenty of precip. Should not have to hear them anyway. Most just do not understand how the cold air is coming and when some try to explain it they do not want to hear it because it goes against there thinking... I been calling for this storm to be a rain changing to snow event for about a week out now... None of this above with the GFS comes as a surprise to me... Have a good night! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikehobbyst Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 That 6Z GFS and some of the ensembles, are giving 4-6 inch advisory level snow for NYC and LI area finally. Is this really supported with the current and pojected pattern ? Are there more and larger threats behind this ? This is actually a better start than last December, and a plowable snow coming earlier again... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 Look more so at the ensemble means and they are even more impressive with this storm than the operational runs and they have been for quite some time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 Latest control run of the 0z Euro that just came out is nearly identical to yesterday's 12z run and today's 6z run of the GFS, but a little colder than the GFS at 850, like yesterday. About 6 inches of snow for NYC, starting on Thursday morning and ending in the afternoon, a little earlier than the GFS timing. Sorry to barge in, but my access to the Euro maps is very limited. I was curious what they show for the Mid Atlantic Region if you don't mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 You would be on the NW fringe of the snow shield on the control run of the Euro this morning. My post was however inaccurate and I went back and deleted it. The control run this morning was slightly NW of the operational run but not as impressive as the GFS from this morning. I woke up early and apparently needed to clear the cache on my smartphone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 The 6z GFS would be perfect for places around here since it gives several inches of snow.and then it gets real cold for at least a few days afterward, therefore preserving the snow. It would pretty much save the month of December if this happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 Control run of the 0z Euro keeps us on the NW fringe of the snow shield with only a dusting or so of accumulation on Thursday. 850's are around -5 the entire time. It really goes crazy with the storm the middle of the following week that the GFS also shows, taking a low from like Missouri to the DelMarva and deepening to a 996mb low as it exits the coast. Total precip of around 2 inches with most of it rain, but with 850's only around +2 or +3 and changing to snow before ending on Thursday afternoon with a few inches of accumulation. It is long duration also, all day Wednesday and Thursday. It keeps us cold the entire time, through 360 hrs with the warmest basically being for that storm and just before it, but no real warmth at all through the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 When you look at the individual ensemble members you can see that there is a HUGE spread from inland solutions to out to sea solutions to some big hits. Huge spread. Anything is possible really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 The 6z GFS is a flat wave timed better with the confluence coming in. However, low-level temps still look marginal for accumulating snow along the coast. And the solution is likely to change again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 You would be on the NW fringe of the snow shield on the control run of the Euro this morning. My post was however inaccurate and I went back and deleted it. The control run this morning was slightly NW of the operational run but not as impressive as the GFS from this morning. I woke up early and apparently needed to clear the cache on my smartphone. Thanks. While I am pretty bullish on an event on the east coast around the 5 day time frame the one thing I do find concerning about snow chances down here in the mid Atlantic, which may be very beneficial up there and especially inland a little, is the PV and it's placement and allignment. The models have a habit of overplaying the southward and eastward progression of the PV and I believe we are seeing that in play now. Earlier runs were showing this event to be suppressed and out to sea and have progressively moved this left and north. I would not be surprised to find, when all is said and done, that we find this low move up to our west down here giving the mountains and areas north of us a decent Snow Storm. Not sure how NY city would do but wouldn't be surprised if inland a little jack potted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 It isnt.. 12/8 & 12/11 all snow as per 18z GFS.. http://wxweb.meteost...shtml?text=KMGJ except I wasn't talking abou that storm, i was talking about the rainstorm before it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JCsnow17 Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 When you look at the individual ensemble members you can see that there is a HUGE spread from inland solutions to out to sea solutions to some big hits. Huge spread. Anything is possible really. Fwiw around 4 hits, 2 inland, and the rest are duds/ots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 Thanks. While I am pretty bullish on an event on the east coast around the 5 day time frame the one thing I do find concerning about snow chances down here in the mid Atlantic, which may be very beneficial up there and especially inland a little, is the PV and it's placement and allignment. The models have a habit of overplaying the southward and eastward progression of the PV and I believe we are seeing that in play now. Earlier runs were showing this event to be suppressed and out to sea and have progressively moved this left and north. I would not be surprised to find, when all is said and done, that we find this low move up to our west down here giving the mountains and areas north of us a decent Snow Storm. Not sure how NY city would do but wouldn't be surprised if inland a little jack potted. The #1 CIPS analog for the MA/SE region on the 00Z GFS for 120 hours is 12/13/89 which was a storm that hit DC/MD/DE very hard but completely missed our area, we received an epic bust ourselves about 36-48 hours later on the 14th and 15th. I think that this event is too timing sensitive to know much inside 72-84 hours whats going to happen, I doubt this will be a big time inland tracker, it could go slightly inland but its more likely to be a miss to the east I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 The #1 CIPS analog for the MA/SE region on the 00Z GFS for 120 hours is 12/13/89 which was a storm that hit DC/MD/DE very hard but completely missed our area, we received an epic bust ourselves about 36-48 hours later on the 14th and 15th. I think that this event is too timing sensitive to know much inside 72-84 hours whats going to happen, I doubt this will be a big time inland tracker, it could go slightly inland but its more likely to be a miss to the east I think. I agree. Timing is the key here and I think even 72 hours is way too much lead time. We've seen these things waffle just enough even 24 hours out to completely screw the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 I agree. Right now it looks like a near miss to the east, but some of the individual ensemble members with their big hits really make you think. The #1 CIPS analog for the MA/SE region on the 00Z GFS for 120 hours is 12/13/89 which was a storm that hit DC/MD/DE very hard but completely missed our area, we received an epic bust ourselves about 36-48 hours later on the 14th and 15th. I think that this event is too timing sensitive to know much inside 72-84 hours whats going to happen, I doubt this will be a big time inland tracker, it could go slightly inland but its more likely to be a miss to the east I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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