Edge Weather Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 Yep, another one to watch. Costal forming at hour 174. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 Weenie run. Snowstorm hour 180. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 Yep, another one to watch. Cold storm too, with highs in perfect spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 Yes, and the 0z run of the Euro hinted at this. Notice how screwed up the 12z run of the Euro was today in comparison. This looks nearly like what the 0z run of the Euro showed for potential next weekend although it did not quite come together. There was also a lot of hinting on prior runs of the GFS to a storm for the following weekend. The control run of the Euro that goes out to 360 hrs has also been showing this potential. Let's see what happens. Cold storm too, with highs in perfect spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 The GGEM also hinted at the 180 hour storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 Big shift east on the GFS Nice to finally see a somewhat better agreement with the models, but regarding any snow potential, it's still the same issue with the cold air not catching up to the low pressure until it's out of the area. It's a coastal now, apparently a more likely solution based on the recent models, but still rain for the area. 850mb temps are below zero only for NW NJ, but 925mb temps are above freezing. It is usually not as good as the operational run at all, but like I said, when the operational is looking screwey it gives you a good idea of a more likely outcome. When the operational run screwed up with it's out to sea solution on two runs back in October, the control run continued showing the more likely solution of a direct hit. I think that is what we are seeing here. I did not believe the operational run's out to sea solution today and this is a clear indication that it is likely wrong. It is much closer to the ensemble mean that was posted earlier and much closer to the solutions depicted by the NOGAPS, Canadian, and JMA. Thanks, that's what I thought since I never heard of that model before. I doubt the OTS solution on the ECM verifies, but that cold ECM control solution seems very unlikely as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 2"-4" type storm on gfs. Plenty cold too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 2"-4" type storm on gfs. Plenty cold too. The 700RH field is juicy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 Pattern is horrible past that snowstorm this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted December 3, 2011 Author Share Posted December 3, 2011 Pattern is horrible past that snowstorm this time. disagree, but it will change in 6 hours anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 Pattern is horrible past that snowstorm this time. Not really. Another storm chance coming up at the end of the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 Nice to finally see a somewhat better agreement with the models, but regarding any snow potential, it's still the same issue with the cold air not catching up to the low pressure until it's out of the area. It's a coastal now, apparently a more likely solution based on the recent models, but still rain for the area. 850mb temps are below zero only for NW NJ, but 925mb temps are above freezing. For more cold air to wrap around the low, we need more phasing to take place. But that could also bring the low further west and warm us up. This is why blocking is helpful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 That snow event has similarities at 500mb to the 2/23/89 event and fits as one of the few ways you can get an East Coast snow event with a +NAO with the progressive ridge out west so the system does not have enough time to tilt negative and go inland, the problem is this sort of setup is so prone to being more of a New England event or a complete miss altogether. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 georgia really let me down. bummed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 That snow event has similarities at 500mb to the 2/23/89 event and fits as one of the few ways you can get an East Coast snow event with a +NAO with the progressive ridge out west so the system does not have enough time to tilt negative and go inland, the problem is this sort of setup is so prone to being more of a New England event or a complete miss altogether. Not to mention that its all rain all the way to Middletown and none of the ensembles have it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 Not to mention that its all rain all the way to Middletown and none of the ensembles have it. How is the 180 hour storm rain into bear country? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 i don't think the JMA is better than the GFS...the 500mb AC plot is only looking at the last month...The GFS has had a difficult few weeks so it's correlations happen to be quite low right now...it's typically third...just behind the UKMET...ahead of the Canadian and the FNMOC. I think the JMA was just recently added the EMC model verification. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 Official OBS threads will now be tagged as such and have the prefix before the thread title (see main forum and look for the obs thread). Hopefully this will help in continuing to keep the banter here and the OBS there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 How about them rangers? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 I really wonder if people here actually enjoy the cold or is it the idea of snow that makes them want cold. Another thing I realized is that I've never lived through a winter with negative temperatures, 1994 came close at KJFK but no cigar (please correct me if I'm wrong), 2004 came close as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 I really wonder if people here actually enjoy the cold or is it the idea of snow that makes them want cold. Both Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ELCwx Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 How about them rangers? Go blueshirts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 I really wonder if people here actually enjoy the cold or is it the idea of snow that makes them want cold. Another thing I realized is that I've never lived through a winter with negative temperatures, 1994 came close at KJFK but no cigar (please correct me if I'm wrong), 2004 came close as well. I recorded -0.6 in Queens in January 2004. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 How is the 180 hour storm rain into bear country? It isnt.. 12/8 & 12/11 all snow as per 18z GFS.. http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=KMGJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 Go blueshirts. They look awesome to bad they get no coverage or respect spotlight always on Pitsburgh Boston Washington Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 They look awesome to bad they get no coverage or respect spotlight always on Pitsburgh Boston Washington being irrelevant for over a decade will do that....with the exception of a Jagr year here and there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 I really wonder if people here actually enjoy the cold or is it the idea of snow that makes them want cold. Another thing I realized is that I've never lived through a winter with negative temperatures, 1994 came close at KJFK but no cigar (please correct me if I'm wrong), 2004 came close as well. I love cold weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 being irrelevant for over a decade will do that....with the exception of a Jagr year here and there. That is true, I saw an article saying dangers tv ratings are up 10% so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cut Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 That is true, I saw an article saying dangers tv ratings are up 10% so far Rangers rock this year, nice blend of hungry youth, skilled vets, and joe lunch pail. Oh, and a GREAT Tender. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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