MJO812 Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 So are my balls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 go georgia!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 Since the long range FIM and NOGAPS are showing up, I was unfortunately reminded of the only other model that could possibly be worse: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 The control run of the 12z Euro has about .6 inches of precipitation at NYC on Thursday between 120-132 hrs with 850's around -5 the whole time. Storm forms over the Western Carolinas on Wednesday night and exits near Virginia Beach on Thursday around mid-day, remaining well southeast of our area with cold air in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 go georgia!!! Unless LSU loses by 30 its gonna be LSU 'bama. Again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 The control run of the 12z Euro has about .6 inches of precipitation at NYC on Thursday between 120-132 hrs with 850's around -5 the whole time. You should post this again. I'll keep you guys updated on the control run of the GFS Ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 Unless LSU loses by 30 its gonna be LSU 'bama. Again. Yeah no doubt. But I want the dawgs to pull this off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 What the hell is the control run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 I don't know exactly, but it is going to end up being a hell of a lot better with the eventual outcome than the operational run was today, I can tell you that. It often picks up on things that the operational run screws up on. I use it mainly when there is a good degree of uncertainty with the operational run, like today when it looks screwed up. It is something similar to an ensemble mean, but not exactly. What the hell is the control run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 Yeah no doubt. But I want the dawgs to pull this off. I stopped caring way back when FSU lost to Oklahoma. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 I don't know exactly, but it is going to end up being a hell of a lot better with the eventual outcome than the operational run was today, I can tell you that. It often picks up on things that the operational run screws up on. I use it mainly when there is a good degree of uncertainty with the operational run, like today when it looks screwed up. It is something similar to an ensemble mean, but not exactly. Do you know about its accuracy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 It is usually not as good as the operational run at all, but like I said, when the operational is looking screwey it gives you a good idea of a more likely outcome. When the operational run screwed up with it's out to sea solution on two runs back in October, the control run continued showing the more likely solution of a direct hit. I think that is what we are seeing here. I did not believe the operational run's out to sea solution today and this is a clear indication that it is likely wrong. It is much closer to the ensemble mean that was posted earlier and much closer to the solutions depicted by the NOGAPS, Canadian, and JMA. Do you know about its accuracy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 It's going to be a close call on the GFS for next week's storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 Big shift east on the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 18z GFS now looks like the NOGAPS, JMA, Canadian, FIM, and control run of the Euro. Close to snowstorm in NW suburbs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormspotterlive Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 Looks like the GFS is going on board for up the coast Finally some agreement on a solid solution. We shall see if the euro catches o tonight. Will be nice to have wind with the rain this go around. Maybe some Higher elevation snows come into play as we get closer to the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 18z GFS now looks like the NOGAPS, JMA, Canadian, FIM, and control run of the Euro. Close to snowstorm in NW suburbs. The GEFS have been showing this for days. Finally the GFS caught on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 Still all rain. But I'm satisfied with a solution like this, because it allows the cold air to come in stronger behind it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 Remember, the Euro control run is actually MUCH colder with -5 at 850mb with this basic track and precip and this run of the GFS actually gives the NW burbs some snow according to soundings, in fact, far NW burbs would be nearly all snow according to soundings. This track is nearly identical to the control run of the Euro I was just talking about, but about 5 degrees warmer at 850 on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 Does 4DVAR still post here? I liked him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 That next shortwave dropping in at day 6, is a little interesting. Might cut inland, but let's see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 Remember, the Euro control run is actually MUCH colder with -5 with this basic track and precip and this run of the GFS actually gives the NW burbs some snow according to soundings, in fact, far NW burbs would be nearly all snow according to soundings. Thats the Euro....control run? Tell me more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 Posted earlier. Not going to post it again because Earthlight might kill me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormspotterlive Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 DGEX now back to coastal how it gets there is another story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 Does 4DVAR still post here? I liked him. he thetrials Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 One thing I will say for sure. I will trust this run much, much more than the previous run. We can at least look at what it shows later down the line because it seems like it did a very good job earlier on to me. That next shortwave dropping in at day 6, is a little interesting. Might cut inland, but let's see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 Posted earlier. Not going to post it again because Earthlight might kill me. Your sarcasm detector needs to go into the shop. Maybe fix the cd so it stops skipping too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 Costal forming at hour 174. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 Ha ha. Your sarcasm detector needs to go into the shop. Maybe fix the cd so it stops skipping too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 Thanks, that make sense. I believe he is a lawyer in his other life . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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