Sundog Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 Thats the problem with this subforum... Not everyone in the Tri-State lives in NYC & LI. In case you didnt know... areas 50+ miles NW of the NYC have a climate similar to interior SNE.. My snowfall avg is close to doubled that of CPK.. In this sub forum the only people that average twice the snow of KNYC is you and the bears my good man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 I don't think he's arguing semantics. He's arguing that the specificity of the JMA model output is lacking and drawing conclusions based on 24 hour increments may or may not be accurate. Chances are that it's warm and wet and then cold and dry though. Even he says so. Its easy to see it as a pretty sharp cutoff in the frontal boundary as it moves through...you look at 96h where the R/S is and then look at how much precip fell behind that line on the 120 panel...almost zippo. Its an awful setup for big (or even little) anafrontal snow...at least as the JMA depicts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 12z Euro ensembles are different than the op. At 168 hours, the op had a big midwest storm. Here is the ensemble mean at that time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 I am sure that you are probably right. What are your thoughts about the Canadian? That is very close to a major snowstorm for some. Where? It's all rain for NJ and NYC also. 850 line and thicknesses never get cold enough until there is almost no precip left. But it's close enough for hills of NWNJ to be interested. Snow is in upstate NY and Vermont/NH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 12z Euro ensembles are different than the op. At 168 hours, the op had a big midwest storm. Here is the ensemble mean at that time. Euro op is struggling. It's clear that cold is coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 I am sure that you are probably right. What are your thoughts about the Canadian? That is very close to a major snowstorm for some. The Canadian is the closest thing to accumulating snow...almost exclusively in the far interior areas with good elevation. Even it taken at face value is almost all rain, but its at least pretty close for those mentioned areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 End of the week storm. It looks like HPC's call. Euro ensemble mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 Yes, I think the operational run of the Euro was seriously in error this afternoon. Looked really whacked out to me. 12z Euro ensembles are different than the op. At 168 hours, the op had a big midwest storm. Here is the ensemble mean at that time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 Thank you for your input. It is very nice to have a pro met in here to keep us in line. The Canadian is the closest thing to accumulating snow...almost exclusively in the far interior areas with good elevation. Even it taken at face value is almost all rain, but its at least pretty close for those mentioned areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 Its easy to see it as a pretty sharp cutoff in the frontal boundary as it moves through...you look at 96h where the R/S is and then look at how much precip fell behind that line on the 120 panel...almost zippo. Its an awful setup for big (or even little) anafrontal snow...at least as the JMA depicts. I agree there are other factors that can be used to determine with more accuracy the precip type and precip amounts, such as atmosphere saturation, position of the rain/snow line as you mentioned, total precip remaining in the following time frames, etc. The fact that they are still 24 hour increments though is a limiting factor in some instances and I'm not necessarily referring to this case. For example the depiction on the JMA is pretty cut and dry, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 I agree there are other factors that can be used to determine with more accuracy the precip type and precip amounts, such as atmosphere saturation, position of the rain/snow line as you mentioned, total precip remaining in the following time frames, etc. The fact that they are still 24 hour increments though is a limiting factor in some instances and I'm not necessarily referring to this case. For example the depiction on the JMA is pretty cut and dry, IMO. I definitely agree that in more ambiguous setups, the 24h panels of the JMA render it pretty useless and leaves it open for a lot of interpretation. Thankfully its a pretty poor model WRT east coast snowstorms and we don't have to wonder all the time what it shows in between panels like we have done for years on the Euro increments. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 I wouldn't get excited about the Wednesday-Thursday storm for NYC and most of N NJ as well. There is a coastal shown on some models, but even the models that do show a coastal low still show that the cold won't catch up to the low pressure until the storm is out of the NYC area (going back to the 12-24 modeled precip topic). Perhaps back end flakes in NW NJ, but I wouldn't count on snow in NYC and most of N NJ out of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormspotterlive Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 Looks like the 18z NAM really on the energy being held back band wagon with the southern stream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 ^^^^ Looks like a race between the front and the low pressure down south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 It nailed the October snowstorm and held onto it even when the Euro dropped it for a while. I definitely agree that in more ambiguous setups, the 24h panels of the JMA render it pretty useless and leaves it open for a lot of interpretation. Thankfully its a pretty poor model WRT east coast snowstorms and we don't have to wonder all the time what it shows in between panels like we have done for years on the Euro increments. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormspotterlive Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 Yes it does still not ready to part sides with any model Though a coastal rain storm is starting to slowly come on the table as a solid solution. Lets see what the 18z GFS does if it changes completely again by all means it would not be a surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 It's hilarious that people are telling me that I am in denial about the pattern change. I guess people don't look at the guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 The control run of the 12z Euro that just came out is a guaranteed snow with a low taking a very similar path but just southeast of the JMA, NOGAPS, Canadian, and FIM, exiting the coast near Virginia Beach, with 850's around -5 in all locations in our area. Precip amounts around .3 give or take. Precip starting in the early morning on Thursday and ending in the afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 GGEM ensembles. Most of them are bunched off the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 It nailed the October snowstorm and held onto it even when the Euro dropped it for a while. That's the way the JMA is...it nails nearly every big snowstorm because it shows them with unrealistic frequency through the cold season. So when a big storm finally verifies, everybody talks about how great the JMA was in "Nailing" the storm. But for every hit, there are 10-15 false alarms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 The banter thread is an awesome spot to determine who to put on ignore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 That's the way the JMA is...it nails nearly every big snowstorm because it shows them with unrealistic frequency through the cold season. So when a big storm finally verifies, everybody talks about how great the JMA was in "Nailing" the storm. But for every hit, there are 10-15 false alarms. This. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 The banter thread is an awesome spot to determine who to put on ignore. this thread has really fallen apart in terms of weather disco. Even though it was a banter thread it had some good disco but the weenism that last few days with JMA posts, incorrect interpration of what models are showing, blatently wrong explanations of things, etc. have made it kinda sad. Oh well, John started a real disco thread, so that's good, but even a banter thread should have some level of dignity in terms of the weather discussed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 I like a general 2-4" snow event for the area next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 I like a general 2-4" snow event for the area next week I don't know John, I don't see it, not this far south. May ORH on North, but not down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 THE SECOND CAMP (SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST ECMWF AND THE LATEST NAEFS SLATE OF FORECASTS) SUGGESTS THAT THE SHORT WAVE ENERGY EJECTED FROM THE LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL COME OUT IN PIECES. THESE SOLUTIONS ALSO SUGGEST A COLDER OVERALL SOLUTION...WHICH COULD MEAN A PRECIPITATION TYPE ISSUE FOR LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WOULD BE MOST LIKELY NORTH AND WEST OF THE I 95 CORRIDOR...AND EVEN THE LATEST GEFS PLUMES SUPPORT SOME TYPE OF PRECIPITATION ISSUE HERE. THE BOTTOM LINE IS THIS: IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THERE WILL BE A SECOND SHOT OF PRECIPITATION LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...BUT TIMING WILL CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE. THE AIRMASS SOURCE IS STILL MOIST... WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE HEAVY RAIN. WHETHER OR NOT THERE WILL BE A PRECIPITATION TYPE ISSUE IS STILL MUCH TOO EARLY TO CALL...BUT WILL HAVE TO BE EXAMINED WITH TIME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 I like a general 2-4" snow event for the area next week John Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 John It's a long shot, but I've seen enough to think it's coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 It's verification scores are currently superior to the GFS from 5-8 days out. That's the way the JMA is...it nails nearly every big snowstorm because it shows them with unrealistic frequency through the cold season. So when a big storm finally verifies, everybody talks about how great the JMA was in "Nailing" the storm. But for every hit, there are 10-15 false alarms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 It's verification scores are currently superior to the GFS from 5-8 days out. So are my magic 8 ball's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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