stormspotterlive Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 The NOGAPS use to be a pretty good model back in the day. still laugh at how it took the 12/26 storm to mexico last year. Maybe it will get this one right lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 FIM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormspotterlive Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 FIM The one thing that stands out with this is that originally early this past week the euro and GFS at some point or another had a coastal system coming up either along I95 or just east of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 The NOGAPS use to be a pretty good model back in the day. still laugh at how it took the 12/26 storm to mexico last year. Maybe it will get this one right lol. Again if used properly as a tool ..it serves its purpose quite well... 12 Z Guidance GGEM off the delmarva and up the coast GFS amped up (well inland) Nogaps off the delmarva and up the coast JMA similar to GGEM and Nogaps UKMET more similar to GFS.. GFS means more similar to the NOGAPS, GGEM, JMA Pattern does not support an amped up version like the GFS/UKMET show .. UKMET however along with the NOGAPS serve there purpose at 12 Z... Both these models are more NW then the ECM... In my experience with the NOGAPS because it is a progressive biased model it should be the furthest east etc..When the model is more North and West then other guidance it red flags the guidance and they usually end up moving more N & W before the event takes place... See HPC as they are going with the ensemble means which ironically enough look more like the Nogaps & GGEM & JMA... Tools are great if used properly! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 Fim is all rain. Not sure why it was posted. The jma is all rain also. Anyway, Looks like LGA only topped out at 45. Finally nice to have a normal day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 This depends on where you are talking about. If you are talking about Long Island, true. IF you are talking about Northern New Jersey, not true. Fim is all rain. Not sure why it was posted. The jma is all rain also. Anyway, Looks like LGA only topped out at 45. Finally nice to have a normal day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 Add the FIM now to the NOGAPS, Canadian, JMA agreement. By the way, I completely agree with what you are saying 100%. Again if used properly as a tool ..it serves its purpose quite well... 12 Z Guidance GGEM off the delmarva and up the coast GFS amped up (well inland) Nogaps off the delmarva and up the coast JMA similar to GGEM and Nogaps UKMET more similar to GFS.. GFS means more similar to the NOGAPS, GGEM, JMA Pattern does not support an amped up version like the GFS/UKMET show .. UKMET however along with the NOGAPS serve there purpose at 12 Z... Both these models are more NW then the ECM... In my experience with the NOGAPS because it is a progressive biased model it should be the furthest east etc..When the model is more North and West then other guidance it red flags the guidance and they usually end up moving more N & W before the event takes place... See HPC as they are going with the ensemble means which ironically enough look more like the Nogaps & GGEM & JMA... Tools are great if used properly! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 This depends on where you are talking about. If you are talking about Long Island, true. IF you are talking about Northern New Jersey, not true. Jma is all rain. Look at 700map at hour 120. Storm is well gone and into Maine. The precip maps are previous 24 hours. Which means precip probably fell 12 hours+ before hour 120. And at hour 120, it's barely cold enough. If there were any precip after 120, then that's a different story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 Fim is all rain. Not sure why it was posted. The jma is all rain also. Anyway, Looks like LGA only topped out at 45. Finally nice to have a normal day. It was posted because the models are not done trending with this storm. It can get colder or even warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 It was posted because the models are not done trending with this storm. It can get colder or even warmer. But it's not even close. That's 45+ and rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 I am looking at the 850 map, I could not care less what it says at 700. Why would the 700 be any better than the 850? You have no idea exactly when that precip fell. Maybe it is like the October storm and fell as the cold air moves in, maybe not and it is like you say, but you simply don't know. Jma is all rain. Look at 700map at hour 120. Storm is well gone and into Maine. The precip maps are previous 24 hours. Which means precip probably fell 12 hours+ before hour 120. And at hour 120, it's barely cold enough. If there were any precip after 120, then that's a different story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 But it's not even close. That's 45+ and rain. I didn't say it was snow. It shows a different solution than the other models. The point is that none of the models have a clue just yet about this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 I am looking at the 850 map, I could not care less what it says at 700. Why would the 700 be any better than the 850? You have no idea exactly when that precip fell. Maybe it is like the October storm and fell as the cold air moves in, maybe not and it is like you say, but you simply don't know. 700 shows you if the air is still saturated at hour 120. Because the jma is previous 24hours of precip, the precip you see could have fallen 12-20 hours before hour 120. You get an idea of when the precip fell, from the 700rh map. If the 90-100% humidity is in Maine, like it is on jma, then it fell hours and hours before that. The jma is all rain as depicted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 I am looking at the 850 map, I could not care less what it says at 700. Why would the 700 be any better than the 850? You have no idea exactly when that precip fell. Maybe it is like the October storm and fell as the cold air moves in, maybe not and it is like you say, but you simply don't know. He's right, the FIM is all rain down in that area. Its a bad model anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 Again, it depends on where you are talking about. The 546 line, which often separates rain and snow in this area is cutting through Northern NJ and basically NYC. But it's not even close. That's 45+ and rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 Here is the GEFS at 120. Nothing like the op run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 I said it depends on where he is talking about and here he was talking about the JMA in this particular post. He's right, the FIM is all rain down in that area. Its a bad model anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 He's right, the FIM is all rain down in that area. Its a bad model anyway. It's a experimental model. I wouldn't say it's a bad model though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 I said it depends on where he is talking about and here he was talking about the JMA in this particular post. They both show all rain...the JMA is dried out well after the cold air filters in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 It's a experimental model. I wouldn't say it's a bad model though. Well we differ on that opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 I appreciate the clarification on the 700 but you don't know when the 850 moved through, maybe it was after the precip fell. You just don't know with a 24 hours interval. Again, it could be exactly as you state, but I really don't think you can say that definitively. Do we agree on this statement? 700 shows you if the air is still saturated at hour 120. Because the jma is previous 24hours of precip, the precip you see could have fallen 12-20 hours before hour 120. You get an idea of when the precip fell, from the 700rh map. If the 90-100% humidity is in Maine, like it is on jma, then it fell hours and hours before that. The jma is all rain as depicted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 Fim is all rain. Not sure why it was posted. The jma is all rain also. Anyway, Looks like LGA only topped out at 45. Finally nice to have a normal day. Actually it's below normal. A miracle, I know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 Can you say this definitively with the 24 hour time frame on the JMA? They both show all rain...the JMA is dried out well after the cold air filters in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 They both show all rain...the JMA is dried out well after the cold air filters in. Exactly what im trying to say, by looking at the 700map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 But you don't know when the 850 line moved through. In northern NJ it is +5 at 96 hrs and -5 at 120 hrs. and often the temperatures drop dramatically as the precipitation starts to fall, like in the October storm. Not arguing anything other than that I don't think we can make a definitive statement here. It may be exactly as you say, but I don't think we can say that with absolute certainty. Exactly what im trying to say, by looking at the 700map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 But you don't know when the 850 line moved through. In northern NJ it is +5 at 96 hrs and -5 at 120 hrs. and often the temperatures drop dramatically as the precipitation starts to fall, like in the October storm. Not arguing anything other than that I don't think we can make a definitive statement here. It may be exactly as you say, but I don't think we can say that with absolute certainty. You are drawing up a semantical argument over a couple of flakes. At best perhaps it ends as 7 wet flakes. In a setup like that, it certainly wouldn't be accumulating snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 Again, it depends on where you are talking about. The 546 line, which often separates rain and snow in this area is cutting through Northern NJ and basically NYC. Thats the problem with this subforum... Not everyone in the Tri-State lives in NYC & LI. In case you didnt know... areas 50+ miles NW of the NYC have a climate similar to interior SNE.. My snowfall avg is close to doubled that of CPK.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 I would not argue about the fact that the precip is no where near our area by 120 hrs. This can be deduced by looking at the location of the low pressure area which is over Nova Scotia by then. What I am looking at is that the low is over the Carolinas at 96 hrs, and the main precip is likely not even over our area yet, as is seen on the Canadian, which has a similar track. At 96 hrs, yes it is quite warm at 850 but the precip is most likely not even over us yet. Then we know that sometime between then and when the storm has passed, the 850 temp has gone from +5 to -5. This could have happened exactly as the precipitation has moved in, there is simply no way to tell with a 24 hour interval. We can not assume an even movement of the 850 line. It could move evenly, or it could crash south and east as the low pressure center and precip arrive, as it so often does in our area. We just have no way to definitely tell. That is all I am trying to say. Of course it may be all rain, but we don't know that for certain without a 6 hour interval, or even a 12 hour interval, but definitely not with a 24 hours interval. It is just guesswork with a 24 hour interval. Exactly what im trying to say, by looking at the 700map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 I am sure that you are probably right. What are your thoughts about the Canadian? That is very close to a major snowstorm for some. You are drawing up a semantical argument over a couple of flakes. At best perhaps it ends as 7 wet flakes. In a setup like that, it certainly wouldn't be accumulating snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 You are drawing up a semantical argument over a couple of flakes. At best perhaps it ends as 7 wet flakes. In a setup like that, it certainly wouldn't be accumulating snow. I don't think he's arguing semantics. He's arguing that the specificity of the JMA model output is lacking and drawing conclusions based on 24 hour increments may or may not be accurate. Chances are that it's warm and wet and then cold and dry though. Even he says so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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