Edge Weather Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 at 108 hrs the 850 line runs from Hunterdon County through about the Bronx. Storm starting to form over the Southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 Plenty cold but not much of a storm on this run of the Euro, much different than the other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 Euro allows the PV to suppress the storm completely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 Euro allows the PV to suppress the storm completely. GFS with a cutter and Euro suppressed......what in the sam hell is going on here John? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 Even the light precip the Euro gets to the NJ Coast is rain with temps in the 40's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 Just inland it would be cold enough for snow, but no precip makes it there. Even the light precip the Euro gets to the NJ Coast is rain with temps in the 40's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 Just inland it would be cold enough for snow, but no precip makes it there. Yeah, and if you move the storm closer to the coast the warm air comes with it. Not a good pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 Yes, everything would have to be lined up perfectly to get snow out of this. Not impossible, but a long shot. Yeah, and if you move the storm closer to the coast the warm air comes with it. Not a good pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 Yes, everything would have to be lined up perfectly to get snow out of this. Not impossible, but a long shot. I would say the chances of snow accumulations in the local area from this storm are near zero. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 Today's 12z JMA is a perfect compromise between the UKMET and the European and is the ONLY one of those models to show consistency. It has nearly the identical track that it took with this storm yesterday on today's run that just came out. It takes a developing low over the Western Carolina's on Wednesday morning northeast to Nova Scotia by Thursday morning with heavy precip, about 1.5 inches in our area. 850's are very warm on Wednesday morning but very cold on Thursday morning, so difficult to say how much would be snow, but safe to say that at least some of it would be snow. It also keeps it cold here next weekend and keeps the storm well southeast of our area and out to sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 The timing differences between the Canadian and the JMA are a full 24 hours, but the track, intensity, and precipitation that both models take is nearly identical. I am viewing the Canadian on Wright Weather's site. It just came in through 132 hrs and I can tell you that it has a 1000mb low centered along the coast of the DelMarva, with the precip max over Northern New Jersey and the 850mb temp at +1. Yes, the surface temperatures are verbatim in the upper 30's to lower 40's, but man is this close on both the JMA and Canadian, which look nearly identical, to being a major snowstorm. BOTH models take a developing low from the Western Carolinas to near Nova Scotia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 The Canadian at 138 hrs has a 995mb low near the Benchmark with wrap around precip throughout all of NJ and the 850 line running through NW NJ. The thing that is raising red flags to me is that both the JMA and Canadian are the only models to show much in the way of consistency here at all. The European model and the GFS have been all over the place, especially the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 The Canadian at 138 hrs has a 995mb low near the Benchmark with wrap around precip throughout all of NJ and the 850 line running through NW NJ. The thing that is raising red flags to me is that both the JMA and Canadian are the only models to show much in the way of consistency here at all. The European model and the GFS have been all over the place, especially the GFS. All the models have been all over the place. The GFS ( especially the ensembles ) have been consistent with the cold in the long range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 GFS with a cutter and Euro suppressed......what in the sam hell is going on here John? Cutter and suppressed = Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 Just checked the individual GEFS ensemble members and there are 4 out of 12 that look very similar to the JMA and Canadian, although they all have timing issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 JMA. Looks like a wave is about to ride the front. HPC doesn't think a big storm will happen next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 JMA. Looks like a wave is about to ride the front. HPC doesn't think a big storm will happen next week. No not a big storm but notice the next frame of HPC... Its not buying the 12 Z ECM.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 No not a big storm but notice the next frame of HPC... Its not buying the 12 Z ECM.... It looks like they are going with the GEFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormspotterlive Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 At this point in time I think it is a safe bet to just wait and see way to much model inconsistency hell if energy was to be held back like some models have the pattern would be a tad better. Main thing is models are very confused with what happens this time around. 1 thing we do know is that accumulating snow is a very low probability with this one snow flurries can happen not likely to. everything else from rain storm to out to sea is on the table. Will be very interesting to see how this one unfolds. As for the pattern change we finally may have some small agreement on it doing so mid month with the GFS and the GFS ensembles. But you then have the euro that says no. Oh how theses models can drive people mentally insane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 December 3rd. I'm ready to call it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 Top 500 mb analog in the MS Valley at hr 96 of the 12z GFS is 1-1-90..I'm guessing that was total crap especially since the storm ends up a cutter on the OP run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 I would say the chances of snow accumulations in the local area from this storm are near zero. So you're telling me there's a chance... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 At this point in time I think it is a safe bet to just wait and see way to much model inconsistency hell if energy was to be held back like some models have the pattern would be a tad better. Main thing is models are very confused with what happens this time around. 1 thing we do know is that accumulating snow is a very low probability with this one snow flurries can happen not likely to. everything else from rain storm to out to sea is on the table. Will be very interesting to see how this one unfolds. As for the pattern change we finally may have some small agreement on it doing so mid month with the GFS and the GFS ensembles. But you then have the euro that says no. Oh how theses models can drive people mentally insane. Euro shows it gets colder as well and the ensemble means from last night did as well ... I really get confused at what people are looking at.... Oh and just for earthlight aka John Here is the reason why I am not trusting the ECM with the storm evolution as depicted from 96-120 hrs... Worked last year like a charm so going with using it as a tool once again... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 I like using the Canadian and JMA at the moment. They represent a good compromise between the UKMET inland solution and the Euro suppressed solution. The JMA solution has also been identical the past 2 days in a row and it even has support from 4 out of 12 of the GEFS members. Most likely rain, with the chance of some snow in Northwestern sections depending on exactly how things work out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 Oh how theses models can drive people mentally insane. What else is new lol So you're telling me there's a chance... Yes, there is a chance of snow with the pattern coming up. Euro shows it gets colder as well and the ensemble means from last night did as well ... I really get confused at what people are looking at.... Oh and just for earthlight aka John Here is the reason why I am not trusting the ECM with the storm evolution as depicted from 96-120 hrs... Worked last year like a charm so going with using it as a tool once again... A lot of people just think it will not snow or get cold because of the NAO and AO. I guess everyone is forgetting about the EPO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 True. You know what, the NOGAPS track matches the JMA and Canadian. When the NOGAPS does that it really makes you think. Lock it in. The Euro is probably too suppressed, not giving enough credit to the northern stream system, while the GFS and UKMET are probably giving too much credit to the northern stream system. That also plays into their biases as far as I understand. Euro shows it gets colder as well and the ensemble means from last night did as well ... I really get confused at what people are looking at.... Oh and just for earthlight aka John Here is the reason why I am not trusting the ECM with the storm evolution as depicted from 96-120 hrs... Worked last year like a charm so going with using it as a tool once again... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 So you're telling me there's a chance... Hey! What was all that one in a million talk? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 The Ruc will be retiring in January. The RAP will take its place. http://ruc.noaa.gov/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 Hey! What was all that one in a million talk? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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