Edge Weather Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 It is all about interaction and timing. You never know. Pretty sure thats all its going to be. No blocking or anything to keep it from going west so i dont know why people are even considering it a threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 Pretty sure thats all its going to be. No blocking or anything to keep it from going west so i dont know why people are even considering it a threat. I never even considered this a threat to our area. I am interested in the pattern after this storm passes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 It is all about interaction and timing. You never know. The 12z GFS ensembles should be interesting. They have been showing a wave a long the coast, while the op run has been waffling all over the place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 UKMET looks like the GFS. http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=ukmet&stn=PNM&hh=120&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=ukmet&stn2=PNM&hh2=144&fixhh=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 Canadian looks like it could be a big snowstorm, maybe. Hard to tell. Here is 144 hrs. http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/595_100.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 12z GEFS shows no big inland storm. It has waves riding the trough though. There must be some members out to sea and some members inland. Canadian looks like it could be a big snowstorm, maybe. Hard to tell. Here is 144 hrs. http://www.weatherof...ast/595_100.gif Yep, for Detroit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 Yes, must be a big spread there. 12z GEFS shows no big inland storm. It has waves riding the trough though. There must be some members out to sea and some member inland. Yep, for Detroit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 I know Earthlight will say something about this NAO map, but here it is. It shows some drops in the NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 GEFS continue to hint at a chance of some snow on Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 Is that a massive snowstorm on the Canadian at 132 hrs? http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/colour_images/12_054_G1_north@america@zoomout_I_4PAN_CLASSIC@012_132.jpg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 Canadian 144 hrs. http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/colour_images/12_054_G1_north@america@zoomout_I_4PAN_CLASSIC@012_144.jpg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 Canadian 144 hrs. http://www.weatherof...SIC@012_144.jpg It looks warm, based off those ugly maps. Have to check out ewall to see what it shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 DT on facebook. *** ALERT *** MODEL DISCUSSION re: 12zGFS at DEC 8 is absurd. HUGE intense lows like that ONLY develop when the pattern supports it... MODELS do not CAUSE big lows to form... and the pattern does NOT support it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 I guess then that the UKMET is also absurd, although it does not get anywhere near as intense as the GFS. Maybe that is what he is talking about. DT on facebook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 game day baby. go georgia. if you haven't planned to watch, plan now. 4pm college football georgia/lsu. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 Verbatim the 12zgfs is threatening between Dec 10-12. It would have been nice to see more interaction between the southern and northern streams. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 I think the forecasted highs will bust. Still 43 at LGA at noon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 game day baby. go georgia. if you haven't planned to watch, plan now. 4pm college football georgia/lsu. Football = Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 Verbatim the 12zgfs is threatening between Dec 10-12. It would have been nice to see more interaction between the southern and northern streams. The ensembles also show the NAO going negative in this timeframe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 Canadian 144 hrs. http://www.weatherof...SIC@012_144.jpg the 850's never make it within a 100 miles of 1-95.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 Where do you see that? I only have 850 info on the 0z run so far. Are you sure you are not looking at the old run? the 850's never make it within a 100 miles of 1-95.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 Not much use looking at the operationals when they are really out of harmony with there ensemble means : For instance last nights 00z GGEM Operational Means Quite the difference between the two...meaning large spread... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 Well it appears we have another SWFE coming up around 102 hours--almost came out of the blue. But you have to always be prepared for SWFE's in these patterns. They will be littered around the pattern everywhere until things change. This is a terrible setup. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/AVN_12z/f108.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 What does SWFE stand for? Southwest Flow event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 What does SWFE stand for? Southwest Flow event? Yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 Congrats upstate NY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 Thank you. Yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 GGEM cooking up something at 180 hours? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 The Euro at 102 hrs already has the front through our area and looks like it might start getting interesting. Precip has cut off but a new storm is probably about to form over the southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 For all non-banter (models, discussion, etc) for December in regarding the pattern, storms, etc) use this thread: The current thread should be used for banter & bs only. Thanks dudes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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