ORH_wxman Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 Thanks bud. Very much agreed on all counts. We've really been in lock-step so far leading up to this winter. Now that it's December 1st, let the games begin. PS---The MJO, in the back of my mind, has me a little concerned. Having it loop back into the COD and then into Phases 3-4 in Late Dec would be an electric bath timeline of events. I said in the NE subforum that I don't expect any help at all from the MJO until at least January if ever this winter. Its ugly. This is a putrid pattern for NYC...not all that much better for BOS, but they might have a shot in the gradient setup around Dec 9-14. Ji in DC can probably hang 'em up until at least Christmas or probably beyond. I wish the blocking situation showed more signs of promise, but it is what it is...no sense in sugar coating it. It stinks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 nice read btw Earthlight....spot on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 Well, if this winter's snowfall total for NYC turns out to be unimpressive, then at least we scored a coup with breaking a monthly snowfall record again (October 2011). So, in a semantic sense, this winter has already been "historic" as the past two winters were; with 2009-2010 having a record February and 2010-2011 having a record January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 Here is a post I just wrote (scheduled to be posted at 12am) which essentially details some thoughts on the pattern through Dec. Happy winter, dudes. http://nymetrowx.blo...-here-does.html Great post! The pattern still doesn't look good through late December; afterwards, depending on what happens with the Atlantic/Pacific patterns and the MJO, it'll be interesting to see if the pattern improves for January or if we stay in this mostly mild pattern through parts of January as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 euro, SE ridge taking control at hr 192. Big PV in central canada Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 Really not surprised by the bigger SE ridge now showing up, in the long range. Especially on the GFS. The MJO forecasts have supported it for sometime now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 runawayiceberg to answer your question on the iphone weather apps from the other thread. these are the essentials radarscope -the #1 essential) mycast weather radar - says radar in title but i use it only for obs, it updates as soon as the new hourly obs come in. also averages, records, daily weather graphs, etc. close second to radarscope. phases -moon, tides, etc illumine -sun, daylight times, transit times, etc beachweather -ocean temperatures Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 euro, SE ridge taking control at hr 192. Big PV in central canada SE ridge breaks down a little by hr. 240. I still don't think we have a great idea what happens after the cold air from the front passing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 SE ridge breaks down a little by hr. 240. I still don't think we have a great idea what happens after the cold air from the front passing. Lets just say that the models do not have a clue on the system at all...In reference to the ECM.. The 00z ECM images never updated where I usually get them from so i had to turn to the Accu weather pro which i am not able to post do to there policies. Precipitation moves in at 120 hours out.. and the 540 line or freezing line is essentially the same as the 00z GFS at 120 hrs. You would think that would be good news considering the GFS shows. Wrong.. that line actually RETREATS until 156 hrs... cause the low goes thru Central PA.. By 168 hrs it is into West Central PA (the 540 line) and by 174 into eastern PA and by 180 it is thru the region as the precipitation comes to an end. Moral of the ECM is that it is WAY slower...warmer and would be 60..thats right i said SIXTY hrs of precipitation. This is such a change in the model one has to call its solution HIGHLY into question! That would apply thru the whole run and will wait for the ensemble means! *** i think they updated now however**** Then the GFS Then lets throw the GGEM in here.. What is funny is the GGEM is colder then the ECM and that is something that you normally do not see... So i honestly do not think any model has a grasp on this frontal system and any wave that develops along it! And if they do not have a grasp on that then you KNOW they do not have a grasp on BEYOND so that is why it is best to wait for the ensemble means on in the case of the GFS means they are already out and colder then the op in the over all 6 day to end of the forecast period! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 I agree Matt.The models are going to jump all over the place and still spit out different solutions until the cold front passes. Hopefully by then, we will know what will happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 Euro ensembles have a -epo throughout the run. It is also different than the op run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 6z gefs show a low riding the front at 168 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 6z gefs show a low riding the front at 168 hours. Its looking likely someone in the region will see a snow event sometime between the 8th-15th, hard to say at this point if it will be an entire region all snow event, snow inland with snow to mix to rain at the coast, or snow inland all rain at the coast...in the pattern the GFS/Euro show the middle scenario would seem the likeliest. The GFS continues to show hints near the end of its run of the big SE ridge and possible blow torch myself and HM have really been hitting on the 15th-25th or so. Again, it could be delayed more as these little shifts often come later than the models want to bring them, so perhaps more the 20th-30th. The keys to success were mentioned by Will in the New England thread last night, keeping storm systems relatively weak and sheared, we don't want these massive negative tilt systems forming in the southern Plains but instead sheared out like disturbances shooting quickly ENE. Also getting the lineup of highs cutting across southern Canada, those highs can provide the mechanism for significant overrunning well ahead of the systems like a 1/8/99 or 12/19/08 event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 The ensembles of the Euro and GFS were once again cooler than the op runs. There were no signals of a negative nao though. The epo might save us for the time being. We can see some decent cold with the negative epo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 The ensembles of the Euro and GFS were once again cooler than the op runs. There were no signals of a negative nao though. The epo might save us for the time being. We can see some decent cold with the negative epo. It's been so long since we have seem a negative NAO, the stratospheric vortex is killing any chance for ridging to develop. Hopefully it warms in the coming weeks.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 It does not look like we will see a negative nao anytime soon. The lack of blocking and the mjo in a unfavorable phase is not good at all for the are. I still think there is a chance of a snow event near mid month though. There also look to be a graident type pattern developing towards the end of the models. Lets see how it evolves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 Henry said on facebook that 60 percent of the countrywill be covered with snow by Dec 15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 Henry said on facebook that 60 percent of the countrywill be covered with snow by Dec 15. Not the 60% that matters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 Not the 60% that matters. if by country he means Kansas and Nebraska, then yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 if by country he means Kansas and Nebraska, then yes. Yea I've pretty much thrown in the towel for the first 3 weeks of December at least. The supposed cold runs on the models now look like dogsh*t. Even December 2007 featured 3 accumulating events and a couple of flurries sprinkled in . I'm sure ag3 was ecstatic that month with all those "events." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 Sundog , you are going to regret throwing in the towel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 Its looking likely someone in the region will see a snow event sometime between the 8th-15th, hard to say at this point if it will be an entire region all snow event, snow inland with snow to mix to rain at the coast, or snow inland all rain at the coast...in the pattern the GFS/Euro show the middle scenario would seem the likeliest. The GFS continues to show hints near the end of its run of the big SE ridge and possible blow torch myself and HM have really been hitting on the 15th-25th or so. Again, it could be delayed more as these little shifts often come later than the models want to bring them, so perhaps more the 20th-30th. The keys to success were mentioned by Will in the New England thread last night, keeping storm systems relatively weak and sheared, we don't want these massive negative tilt systems forming in the southern Plains but instead sheared out like disturbances shooting quickly ENE. Also getting the lineup of highs cutting across southern Canada, those highs can provide the mechanism for significant overrunning well ahead of the systems like a 1/8/99 or 12/19/08 event. good post.... can't argue with that... strong mid-latitude cyclones across the central plains will just end up driving lower to mid-level temps through the roof. The cold air from southern Canada will have to be deep though... none of that shallow cold air damming garbage... or else it'll be ice or sleet city Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 Sundog , you are going to regret throwing in the towel It's not like I can't pick it back up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Momza Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 Sundog , you are going to regret throwing in the towel Don't think he really expected anything big here till after the holidays. I know I didn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Momza Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 How many overrunning events did we have last year.? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 We may not see anything Big all winter. In 08-09 I managed to get around 28" total yet no single event over 5" Don't think he really expected anything big here till after the holidays. I know I didn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 We may not see anything Big all winter. In 08-09 I managed to get around 28" total yet no single event over 5" What did you get in March 2009? I had 10 inches here. Were you in the earthlight snowhole of death? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 What did you get in March 2009? I had 10 inches here. Were you in the earthlight snowhole of death? Thats the single and only time in the history of snow where earthlight's area got screwed. NYC and east were getting heavy snow while a substinance zone totally screwed the Scotch Plains area. Will never happen again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 Thats the single and only time in the history of snow where earthlight's area got screwed. NYC and east were getting heavy snow while a substinance zone totally screwed the Scotch Plains area. Will never happen again. Northeast Jersey is like windward side of the Cascades. Rarely do they not win in the snow department. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 95-96 for NYC (LI, NE Queens, SWCT and many other areas had 5"-15" more seasonal snow then Central Park) November: 2.9" December: 11.5 January: 26.1" February: 21.2" March: 13.2" April: 0.7" (lots of areas in the NYC area received 4"-8" in April) Can you imagine what this board would be like if we can ever experience a winter like that? Wow. Everyone from DC to Maine got buried. Non-stop snow from November to April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.