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Banter and BS December 2011


Alpha5

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If it weren't for the question mark at the end I'd have sworn this was a sarcastic post. That just shows you where everyone's minds here are starting to head.

who cares about the plains. this isnt the cornhusk and cowtipping thread.

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enuff of the JB bullchit. he is beyond banter thread eligible.

yea seriously. i might as well just pop on TWC and re-type everything Jim Cantore says for you guys. Actually, i think re-typing Cantore's Stories would add more to the discussion than the million identical "JB said" posts.

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Its ridiculous, I just checked out his facebook page, he literally tweets something every 2-3 minutes for the last 4 hours.

I think they are going out via twitter and in that case it is understandable because you can only type out so many characters. So if you have points you want to get across, which apparently he does...that is why they come out the way they do...

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Today's teleconnections off of the CPC look MUCH better than they have been in the past few days, as well as the 12z ECMWF, GFS, GGEM, and GEFS showing some nice cold in the East in the mid to longer range after the FROPA passes through.

The NAO is the most impressive change from yesterday, going down to at least neutral, then negative.

nao.sprd2.gif

PNA goes to negative (although the PNA is a bit more positive than forecasted) but then goes to positive again.

pna.sprd2.gif

The AO goes to neutral/negative territory.

ao.sprd2.gif

The MJO forecast from the GEFS starts to take the OLR anomalies into the COD, which would mean that the MJO would have less of an effect on Global OLR patterns, and would not impact the pattern that much. If it continues to go to the left into Phases 8/1, then we could be in business.

ensplume_full.gif

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Today's teleconnections off of the CPC look MUCH better than they have been in the past few days, as well as the 12z ECMWF, GFS, GGEM, and GEFS showing some nice cold in the East in the mid to longer range after the FROPA passes through.

The NAO is the most impressive change from yesterday, going down to at least neutral, then negative.

PNA goes to negative (although the PNA is a bit more positive than forecasted) but then goes to positive again.

The AO goes to neutral/negative territory.

The MJO forecast from the GEFS starts to take the OLR anomalies into the COD, which would mean that the MJO would have less of an effect on Global OLR patterns, and would not impact the pattern that much. If it continues to go to the left into Phases 8/1, then we could be in business.

:weenie:

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until the nao/ao charts start verifying at any sort of level....its toilet paper.

The models have done a terrible job forecasting the NAO and AO, and it really shows in the 7 day means in the forecast right under the top graph with all of the red lines; each representing an ensemble member.

I think it's interesting that the teleconnections look more favorable today, after the models started to show colder solutions. I think it will definitely get much colder after the FROPA, but whether that is the pattern changer or not remains to be seen.

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:weenie:

Call me a hot dog if you will, but I think it's interesting to see the teleconnections trend in our favor today, after the good model runs. I am not saying a pattern change is coming, but it is definitely interesting to look at the recent teleconnection trends. IF they verify (which they may not) then the pattern would definitely look much better during the second half of December.

The track record for these models has definitely not been the best, but I think it will be interesting to see if the FROPA is the pattern changer, like the ENS show, and whether they will verify or not, which is the primary reason as to why I posted them.

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Call me a hot dog if you will, but I think it's interesting to see the teleconnections trend in our favor today, after the good model runs. I am not saying a pattern change is coming, but it is definitely interesting to look at the recent teleconnection trends. IF they verify (which they may not) then the pattern would definitely look much better during the second half of December.

The track record for these models has definitely not been the best, but I think it will be interesting to see if the FROPA is the pattern changer, like the ENS show, and whether they will verify or not, which is the primary reason as to why I posted them.

lol, those charts are junk.

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lol, those charts are junk.

Tonight ill get my 4 yr old nephew to do an etch-a-sketch and ill take that and superimpose into NAO charts, and i guarantee that the etches verifiy more than that garbage being posted on here

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lol, those charts are junk.

I agree that their track record has not been that great, but that's not the reason I posted them.

The track record for these models has definitely not been the best, but

This is:

I think it will be interesting to see if the FROPA is the pattern changer, like the ENS show, and whether they will verify or not, which is the primary reason as to why I posted them.

I'm not saying they're right or wrong. I think it will be interesting if they are right, which is why I posted them. If they are wrong, then chalk that up as another failure by those ENS forecasts. You simply can't say that this forecast will be wrong because their recent past forecasts have been wrong, as that is a logical fallacy.

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Tonight ill get my 4 yr old nephew to do an etch-a-sketch and ill take that and superimpose into NAO charts, and i guarantee that the etches verifiy more than that garbage being posted on here

so you golf? PM me, I am trying to get an outing going, TornadoJay would be included.

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