MJO812 Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 Everyone stop ripping on Anthony Alpha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 Funny how it was the Euro showing the weenie solutions with cold and the GFS showing us endless heat and now all of a sudden it's literally the opposite. Just like that they switched positions. One didn't even cave to the other. They both did a 180 and now are found on opposite camps. Pretty ridiculous. That is why its kind of fruitless to look at OP runs beyond 7 days. The GFS and Euro really aren't different in skill at D9-10. The Euro destroys it from D6 inward...that is where it really earns its stripes. The Euro ensembles have been more tame on the cold than the GEFS for a while now which is really what you want to look at in these 1-2 week lead times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 Alpha Not ripping on you. Just trying to clarify something which you have confused. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 Not ripping on you. Just trying to clarify something which you have confused. I didn't say that you were ripping on me. If you did, I still wouldn't mind lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 I didn't say that you were ripping on me. If you did, I still wouldn't mind lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 I feel metfan just copies and paste his post over and over again.....it makes my eyes bleed yeah, he is working with limited bandwith, on two levels, but he is a good guy and gets a pass, most of the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 Ok, that sounded really wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted December 2, 2011 Author Share Posted December 2, 2011 Ok, that sounded really wrong. :bag: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 Ok, that sounded really wrong. lol I think my rear-end story from earlier started us going on the wrong path. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 euro breaks down the pac ridge, too bad SE ridge comes back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 euro breaks down the pac ridge, too bad SE ridge comes back It brings in the cold air after fropa for the first time in 3 runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 It brings in the cold air after fropa for the first time in 3 runs. no where near as cold as GFS and clearly shows the SE ridge not breaking down its rain for both events too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 Yeah. MUCH better this run. Continues to push the cold air in through hour 168. A complete turnaround comapared to its previous 3 runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 its not a torch, thank the lord, but the the country is being taken over by ridging and there is no storms across the country Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 no where near as cold as GFS and clearly shows the SE ridge not breaking down its rain for both events too. Hour 168 on euro and gfs are IDENTICAL. PV crushing the cold south. Cold air into the Northeast. MUCHHHHHHH better then its previous 3 runs which had an all out torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eduardo Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 Definitely. I mean I understand the image and what it shows. And it would be easy to get excited about a tanking NAO if it really were that simple. Unfortunately it's not. The nature of calculating the NAO makes it deciptive based on where the ridging actually is. In this case, it's a bummer. And I'm not sure we're coming out of this regime until we get some stratospheric changes. Earthlight, can you either explain or direct me to a down-to-earth, layman's terms explanation of stratospheric warming, how it occurs, and why it matters so much? I keep seeing the term thrown around and I want to understand what everybody means by it. Beats the hell out of studying for law school exams..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 NAO is going to break records as to how + it gets, wow 498dm heights over greenland ouch they were 580 this time last year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 wow at the huuuuge North European Low, 940mb or so?... my country, Poland, looks at snow every other day for the next 10 days as smaller lows split off and swing around the trough. my b, back to America.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 man, looks like 2001-2002 with no storms across the country and a +AO. It gets cold, but if a storm came along in the pattern, the SE ridge would mess it up. Not good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 man, looks like 2001-2002 with no storms across the country and a +AO. It gets cold, but if a storm came along in the pattern, the SE ridge would mess it up. Not good. It would be a front end thump type storm, changing to rain and then back to snow/sleet. Typical in a gradient pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 Looks like the models are hinting at the potential first freeze for NYC around the 11-12th as the arctic high rolls east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 Much better Euro run .Euro trending towards the GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 Looks like the models are hinting at the potential first freeze for NYC around the 11-12th as the arctic high rolls east. Soundings off the 12z GFS have NYC at or below freezing starting every night from December 8th (hour 138-days 5-6). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 man, looks like 2001-2002 with no storms across the country and a +AO. It gets cold, but if a storm came along in the pattern, the SE ridge would mess it up. Not good. Its better than 01-02, the cold air literally never made it into the U.S. ANYWHERE that winter, at least we're getting across the border somewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 It would be a front end thump type storm, changing to rain and then back to snow/sleet. Typical in a gradient pattern maybe some ice, at the most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 Its better than 01-02, the cold air literally never made it into the U.S. ANYWHERE that winter, at least we're getting across the border somewhere. it did get a little cold aruond xmas, buffalo had a huge lake effect outbreak it snowed a little in NE. On the euro run, the whole country is ridging, even if it is cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 Its better than 01-02, the cold air literally never made it into the U.S. ANYWHERE that winter, at least we're getting across the border somewhere. as well as...there just wasnt much of the way of cold air in canada to begin with. thats the plus side of this early crappy pattern...? the pole and canada are really loading up on the chill. of course now we just need it to spill down...but when it does, look out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 I should have teed it up today....feels nice out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 Euro = Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 Much better Euro run .Euro trending towards the GFS? Good news. Looks like arctic outbreak in the plains at day 10? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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