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Banter and BS December 2011


Alpha5

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Funny how it was the Euro showing the weenie solutions with cold and the GFS showing us endless heat and now all of a sudden it's literally the opposite. Just like that they switched positions. One didn't even cave to the other. They both did a 180 and now are found on opposite camps. Pretty ridiculous.

That is why its kind of fruitless to look at OP runs beyond 7 days. The GFS and Euro really aren't different in skill at D9-10.

The Euro destroys it from D6 inward...that is where it really earns its stripes. The Euro ensembles have been more tame on the cold than the GEFS for a while now which is really what you want to look at in these 1-2 week lead times.

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no where near as cold as GFS and clearly shows the SE ridge not breaking down

its rain for both events too.

Hour 168 on euro and gfs are IDENTICAL.

PV crushing the cold south. Cold air into the Northeast.

MUCHHHHHHH better then its previous 3 runs which had an all out torch.

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Definitely. I mean I understand the image and what it shows. And it would be easy to get excited about a tanking NAO if it really were that simple.

Unfortunately it's not. The nature of calculating the NAO makes it deciptive based on where the ridging actually is.

In this case, it's a bummer. And I'm not sure we're coming out of this regime until we get some stratospheric changes.

Earthlight, can you either explain or direct me to a down-to-earth, layman's terms explanation of stratospheric warming, how it occurs, and why it matters so much? I keep seeing the term thrown around and I want to understand what everybody means by it.

Beats the hell out of studying for law school exams..... :thumbsup:

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man, looks like 2001-2002 with no storms across the country and a +AO.

It gets cold, but if a storm came along in the pattern, the SE ridge would mess it up.

Not good.

It would be a front end thump type storm, changing to rain and then back to snow/sleet.

Typical in a gradient pattern

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man, looks like 2001-2002 with no storms across the country and a +AO.

It gets cold, but if a storm came along in the pattern, the SE ridge would mess it up.

Not good.

Its better than 01-02, the cold air literally never made it into the U.S. ANYWHERE that winter, at least we're getting across the border somewhere.

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Its better than 01-02, the cold air literally never made it into the U.S. ANYWHERE that winter, at least we're getting across the border somewhere.

it did get a little cold aruond xmas, buffalo had a huge lake effect outbreak

it snowed a little in NE.

On the euro run, the whole country is ridging, even if it is cold.

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Its better than 01-02, the cold air literally never made it into the U.S. ANYWHERE that winter, at least we're getting across the border somewhere.

as well as...there just wasnt much of the way of cold air in canada to begin with.

thats the plus side of this early crappy pattern...? the pole and canada are really loading up on the chill. of course now we just need it to spill down...but when it does, look out.

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