BxEngine Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 yes, minus the perfect sat score. Did you spell your name wrong and lose the 200 points? Be honest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 Did you spell your name wrong and lose the 200 points? Be honest. instead of writing John, he wrote "earthlight"... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 instead of writing John, he wrote "earthlight"... So did metfan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 I like the new format Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 I like the new format Yeah it's cool on the iPhone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 what a bore for the entire country late next week. GFS basically show no measureable precip across the entire country Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted December 2, 2011 Author Share Posted December 2, 2011 I just wished they kept the eastern throwback skin....i really liked it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 12z GFS fairly cold after the fropa. Definetely average to below average temps. Looks like cold is also reloading day 8, with a big push in the middle of the country: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 I like the new format nice on my Driod too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 button too sensitive on this thing, you can barely mouse over the controls and accidentally click something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 Works great on iPhone. Super fast and easy to navigate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 Another good run. The NAO is on the downfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 GFS in fantasy land also shows you what a gradient pattern does. The day 14-15 storm is typical for this type of pattern. Front end thump of snow (a few inches), then rain and then back to snow/sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 Another good run. The NAO is on the downfall. I don't know how many times this can be said...but I guess it needs to be posted again. 1) The NAO forecasts have been god-awful. Look at the correlation and forecast to observed. 2) The NAO may go negative by the hard data but there is a huge polar vortex and low heights over Greenland. That does not help us in any way. 3) The stratosphere is very cold which suggests that high latitude blocking will be hard to come by over the next 3 weeks. Anything that develops should be transient and/or east based. It may still register as a -NAO or Neutral NAO but as mentioned, it doesn't help us at all when you look at the actual longwave pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 I don't know how many times this can be said...but I guess it needs to be posted again. 1) The NAO forecasts have been god-awful. Look at the correlation and forecast to observed. 2) The NAO may go negative by the hard data but there is a huge polar vortex and low heights over Greenland. That does not help us in any way. 3) The stratosphere is very cold which suggests that high latitude blocking will be hard to come by over the next 3 weeks. Anything that develops should be transient and/or east based. It may still register as a -NAO or Neutral NAO but as mentioned, it doesn't help us at all when you look at the actual longwave pattern. he wont remember nor does he understand. He will continue to go to other parts of the board and post the same chart with a thumbs up no matter how many times you break it down. He isn't the only one. We should do a webinar on how to read a 500mb map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 Much better then having what the euro keeps showing. I hope the euro backs off and comes towards the GFS. While the 12z GFS is not a great run, it at least has no torch and keeps temps seasonal and on some days below average with a couple of chances at a slop, changeover storm. Better then 50+ degreees and all rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 Not a good run at all. GFS moves the polar vortex north into greenland, and the pacific looks bad with the gfs wanting to develop another rex block over the western states. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 I don't know how many times this can be said...but I guess it needs to be posted again. 1) The NAO forecasts have been god-awful. Look at the correlation and forecast to observed. 2) The NAO may go negative by the hard data but there is a huge polar vortex and low heights over Greenland. That does not help us in any way. 3) The stratosphere is very cold which suggests that high latitude blocking will be hard to come by over the next 3 weeks. Anything that develops should be transient and/or east based. It may still register as a -NAO or Neutral NAO but as mentioned, it doesn't help us at all when you look at the actual longwave pattern. John has excellent points here.. Look at the global models a bit as well... The northern portion of the globe is dominated by the vortex and although it does slip south into Canada, there is only very briefly any hint of a transient east based -NAO.. the Pacific also still looks horrendous.. that ridge is massive and in a horrible spot and it doesn't look to be improving.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted December 2, 2011 Author Share Posted December 2, 2011 Everyone stop ripping on Anthony Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 I don't know how many times this can be said...but I guess it needs to be posted again. 1) The NAO forecasts have been god-awful. Look at the correlation and forecast to observed. 2) The NAO may go negative by the hard data but there is a huge polar vortex and low heights over Greenland. That does not help us in any way. 3) The stratosphere is very cold which suggests that high latitude blocking will be hard to come by over the next 3 weeks. Anything that develops should be transient and/or east based. It may still register as a -NAO or Neutral NAO but as mentioned, it doesn't help us at all when you look at the actual longwave pattern. All that type of -NAO does is help to transport the cold air slightly further south, but its fairly useless for keeping any time of storm track off the coast...you will probably get mostly SWFEs or cutters with that Atlantic setup unless you get really lucky. Its a bad snow pattern south of 42N or even 43N. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 Much better then having what the euro keeps showing. I hope the euro backs off and comes towards the GFS. While the 12z GFS is not a great run, it at least has no torch and keeps temps seasonal and on some days below average with a couple of chances at a slop, changeover storm. Better then 50+ degreees and all rain. Exactly....its winter....I want it to feel like winter. Im sure Im the minority here (odd, considering how many people wanted hot weather during the summer), but at least get some cold shots in here, I can deal with a few days in the 50s, just get rid of the 60s and 70s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 Not a good run at all. GFS moves the polar vortex north into greenland, and the pacific looks bad with the gfs wanting to develop another rex block over the western states. MUCH better then what the euro is showing, which is an all out, way above average TORCH. Take what we can get. The GFS is seasonal to below seasonal temps days 6-15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 MUCH better then what the euro is showing, which is an all out, way above average TORCH. Take what we can get. The GFS is seasonal to below seasonal temps days 6-15. Agree. Jan and Feb are our snowiest months, so we need the cold to come now and the rest can improve for Jan. Hopefully we have snow by Christmas. This type of pattern can give snow - a KU is not very likely, but we've been spoiled the past 2 winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 Much better then having what the euro keeps showing. I hope the euro backs off and comes towards the GFS. While the 12z GFS is not a great run, it at least has no torch and keeps temps seasonal and on some days below average with a couple of chances at a slop, changeover storm. Better then 50+ degreees and all rain. Funny how it was the Euro showing the weenie solutions with cold and the GFS showing us endless heat and now all of a sudden it's literally the opposite. Just like that they switched positions. One didn't even cave to the other. They both did a 180 and now are found on opposite camps. Pretty ridiculous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 All that type of -NAO does is help to transport the cold air slightly further south, but its fairly useless for keeping any time of storm track off the coast...you will probably get mostly SWFEs or cutters with that Atlantic setup unless you get really lucky. Its a bad snow pattern south of 42N or even 43N. Definitely. I mean I understand the image and what it shows. And it would be easy to get excited about a tanking NAO if it really were that simple. Unfortunately it's not. The nature of calculating the NAO makes it deciptive based on where the ridging actually is. In this case, it's a bummer. And I'm not sure we're coming out of this regime until we get some stratospheric changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 John has excellent points here.. Look at the global models a bit as well... The northern portion of the globe is dominated by the vortex and although it does slip south into Canada, there is only very briefly any hint of a transient east based -NAO.. the Pacific also still looks horrendous.. that ridge is massive and in a horrible spot and it doesn't look to be improving.. Patience is going to be required in this pattern. Im sure we'll lose a few to the electric bath. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 12z GEFS. According to the GEFS, the NAO relaxes in the long range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 its gonna be at least three weeks, and this new cold the models are showing is really suspect. It may cool down, but models always overestimate the amount and the timing. It will get pushed back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 I feel metfan just copies and paste his post over and over again.....it makes my eyes bleed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 its gonna be at least three weeks, and this new cold the models are showing is really suspect. It may cool down, but models always overestimate the amount and the timing. It will get pushed back. I don't think so this time. The front finally seems to be showing consistency on the models. We're still not sure HOW cold and how long it lasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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