Alpha5 Posted December 11, 2011 Author Share Posted December 11, 2011 On 12/11/2011 at 7:32 PM, nycsnow said: How was the euro run? Decent cold in the mid-long range, but heights are still way to low over greenland to get excited.....like I said, the Euro tried twice to drive a ridge up to the east of Greenland, so hopefully that feature continues on future runs. At this point even an east based NAO helps us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 On 12/11/2011 at 7:34 PM, Alpha5 said: Decent cold in the mid-long range, but heights are still way to low over greenland to get excited.....like I said, the Euro tried twice to drive a ridge up to the east of Greenland, so hopefully that feature continues on future runs. At this point even an east based NAO helps us nope, that would just give you 1988, and trust me, if you were alive and could remember that, you would just shoot yourself right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 JMA looks very different than either the GFS or the Euro for next weekend and it is consistent with its run from yesterday with a low forming along the Louisiana Gulf Coast on Saturday morning. http://grib2.com/jma...HKPRP_144HR.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 On 12/11/2011 at 7:53 PM, 1234abc said: JMA looks very different than either the GFS or the Euro for next weekend and it is consistent with its run from yesterday with a low forming along the Louisiana Gulf Coast on Saturday morning. http://grib2.com/jma...HKPRP_144HR.gif rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted December 11, 2011 Author Share Posted December 11, 2011 On 12/11/2011 at 7:48 PM, TheTrials said: nope, that would just give you 1988, and trust me, if you were alive and could remember that, you would just shoot yourself right now. We had an east based NAO for the first half of december last year.......an east based is not good for snow, but it can produce cold. LIke I said, just look at last december Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 On 12/11/2011 at 8:11 PM, Alpha5 said: We had an east based NAO for the first half of december last year.......an east based is not good for snow, but it can produce cold. LIke I said, just look at last december there were several reasons for the cold epo was a bigger factor as was the ao. east based nao can be cold, but it's not guaranteed and in this particular pattern would probably do little Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 We should call you "Rain Man". How is the golfing going? On 12/11/2011 at 8:05 PM, TheTrials said: rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 On 12/11/2011 at 8:19 PM, 1234abc said: We should call you "Rain Man". How is the golfing going? my handicap is down to 19 which is much improved from the beginning of the year. New ping irons have really helped, plus more time on the course. Re: Rain, hey, give it three weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 On 12/11/2011 at 8:28 PM, TheTrials said: my handicap is down to 91 which is much improved from the beginning of the year. New ping irons have really helped, plus more time on the course. Re: Rain, hey, give it three weeks. You still think above average snowfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 On 12/11/2011 at 8:31 PM, nycsnow said: You still think above average snowfall Yes. By how much, well, above average is above average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 On 12/11/2011 at 8:34 PM, TheTrials said: Yes. By how much, well, above average is above average. I agree, I mean I wouldn't mind even if they were all small snow falls spread around 2-4 4-8 etc in the end still above average. Some people need to realize you don't need a ku for a great winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 Congrats on the improvement in golfing. The JMA sight is that goes out to 8 days on Accuweather is down. I would like to see where that storm goes next weekend. Do you think it cuts to the Lakes after that? On 12/11/2011 at 8:28 PM, TheTrials said: my handicap is down to 91 which is much improved from the beginning of the year. New ping irons have really helped, plus more time on the course. Re: Rain, hey, give it three weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 On 12/11/2011 at 8:40 PM, 1234abc said: Congrats on the improvement in golfing. The JMA sight is that goes out to 8 days on Accuweather is down. I would like to see where that storm goes next weekend. Do you think it cuts to the Lakes after that? cutter or inland runner just different types of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 ECM ensemble means at 216-240 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eduardo Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 On 12/11/2011 at 8:44 PM, TheTrials said: cutter or inland runner just different types of rain. Nah. Rain is wet regardless of the Low's position. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 On 12/11/2011 at 8:56 PM, Eduardo said: Nah. Rain is wet regardless of the Low's position. one system gives cold rain, the cutter warm sector's us and we get tropical downpours, squall lines, water spouts for William, and hail for Mt. Earthlight that he will claim was snow and will measure it and say he got three feet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Momza Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 On 12/11/2011 at 8:34 PM, TheTrials said: Yes. By how much, well, above average is above average. Was that "well above average" Or Well. Pause above average is above average... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 91 strokes? Thats quite a large handicap. On 12/11/2011 at 8:28 PM, TheTrials said: my handicap is down to 91 which is much improved from the beginning of the year. New ping irons have really helped, plus more time on the course. Re: Rain, hey, give it three weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 On 12/11/2011 at 9:07 PM, NorthShoreWx said: 91 strokes? Thats quite a large handicap. Woops, i was thinking of my score yesterday, wow that would be terrible, lol 19 handicap, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 Ecm ensembles are still different than the op. What a shock. I hope trials lose in golf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 On 12/11/2011 at 9:01 PM, Member said: Was that "well above average" Or Well. Pause above average is above average... latter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 so it's a weenie run, thats why you use it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 Never mind, it must have been yesterday's run. I deleted it. It has nothing there at all next week, lol. On 12/11/2011 at 9:20 PM, irishbri74 said: so it's a weenie run, thats why you use it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 Front end thump on the GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 This looks MUCH more like the JMA except I believe that the JMA brings the WHOLE storm out next weekend and does not leave it behind like the GFS is doing. Can you imagine? This is what I was talking about. If the storm can develop next weekend it will have the big old High pressure to the north of it as it moves east. Perfect transient set-up if the timing is right. On 12/11/2011 at 10:36 PM, Snow88 said: Front end thump on the GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 lunar eclipse and moon vibrations have changed the pattern. snow will be give. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 On 12/11/2011 at 10:46 PM, 1234abc said: This looks MUCH more like the JMA except I believe that the JMA brings the WHOLE storm out next weekend and does not leave it behind like the GFS is doing. Can you imagine? This is what I was talking about. If the storm can develop next weekend it will have the big old High pressure to the north of it as it moves east. Perfect transient set-up if the timing is right. The GEFS is also showing something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 radiating pretty well around here, KISP now down to 30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 The DGEX also has the SWFE for next weekend but keeps it just south of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 The high temperature in C NJ today was a tad cooler than modeled. Most forecasted highs were in the lower 40s for my area, but the temperature only got to 39 Degrees as a high today. This can likely be attributed to the fact that last night I was much colder than forecasted, and got to 18 degrees in C NJ. Radiational cooling is something the models need to get in order to get more accurate forecasts. Today was one of the first days in December where it actually felt like December My temperature right now has fallen to 28 Degrees now. The models show troughing near AK and troughing near Greenland, which not only indicates a +NAO, but it shows that the -EPO/+PNA which is the only reason why these transient cool shots have been occuring, will be supressed, and have less of an effect on the pattern here. As a result, the SE Ridge is allowed to flourish with no cold air supressing or destroying the SE Ridge. The temperatures will warm to at least seasonable conditions next week, and will be seasonable to mild until another cool shot comes after next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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