Alpha5 Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 Met winter starts in 2 hours, no real threats on the immediate horizon, but long range is still up for grabs...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 Bring some good luck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 Here is a post I just wrote (scheduled to be posted at 12am) which essentially details some thoughts on the pattern through Dec. Happy winter, dudes. http://nymetrowx.blogspot.com/p/meteorological-winter-is-here-does.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 Well hello there . This looks like the Euro from 2 days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 Well hello there . This looks like the Euro from 2 days ago. Welcome to the GFS, where there is a completely new solution every 6 hours - LOL. Hope you don't mind my coming in. Our areas get affected by some of the same storms and warm/cold spells. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 Welcome to the GFS, where there is a completely new solution every 6 hours - LOL. Hope you don't mind my coming in. Our areas get affected by some of the same storms and warm/cold spells. We don't mind at all. It's a banter thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 is that cold enough for snow?? 850 looks ok though right... btw, i also put in my snow birds for this year.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 is that cold enough for snow?? 850 looks ok though right... btw, i also put in my snow birds for this year.. I'm going to change it right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 is that cold enough for snow?? 850 looks ok though right... btw, i also put in my snow birds for this year.. maybe a few mangled flakes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 yea...looks dry at 700mb once the front passes though.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 those snowbirds are looking more and more like they are just crapping on winter birds...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 yea...looks dry at 700mb once the front passes though.... Still a while out but at least the GFS shows a low near the coast. It will most likely change once again on the next run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 00z GFS once again shows a garbage pattern through the 15th with the SE ridge dominating, nowhere near the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 those snowbirds are looking more and more like they are just crapping on winter birds...... I'm going to put my snowman sig up tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 Another fugly long range showing up on the GFS again tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 maybe a few mangled flakes sounds good...! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 Still a while out but at least the GFS shows a low near the coast. It will most likely change once again on the next run. The depiction the GFS shows tonight is one the models show alot in the long range but rarely verifies with a wave forming on the front offshore. The depictions yesterday and on the Euro of the more negatively tilted trough with the low cutting NNW across New England would be the scenario needed to get some sort of post frontal snow band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 Here is a post I just wrote (scheduled to be posted at 12am) which essentially details some thoughts on the pattern through Dec. Happy winter, dudes. http://nymetrowx.blo...-here-does.html Great post John. Nothing really to argue with in it. Once the PNA ridging relaxes by mid month, we're left with an unfavorable arctic, north atlantic, and north pacific, which is the unholy trio of miserable winter weather. With no help from the MJO for the forseeable future, we may be on suicide watch for the Dec 15th-25th period. I checked stratospheric anomalies and forecasts for the next 1-2 weeks, cold to very cold conditions look to prevail. Geomagnetic activity is quiet, however, and I do expect this to kick in sooner or later with regards to blocking. There should be improvement by the last week of December, how much improvement, I'm not sure yet. As far as snowfall, it's going to be about luck timing short waves w/ cold shots given there's no blocking to hold antecedent airmasses in place over the Northeast. And generally when we bet on lucky timing, we come up short. So I'm not very optimistic about snow accumulation most of this month for I-95. Cold air on the other hand, I think we'll see plenty of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 If you think about it, January through October was incredibly eventful. Snowstorms in January February and October. Consecutive days above one hundred degrees Fahrenheit. Top two yearly precipitation totals. An August tropical storm/hurricane. Then November is incredibly benign, and it looks like December will be as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 If you think about it, January through October was incredibly eventful. Snowstorms in January February and October. Consecutive days above one hundred degrees Fahrenheit. Top two yearly precipitation totals. An August tropical storm/hurricane. Then November is incredibly benign, and it looks like December will be as well. ive been thinking about that as well....its like we've been on and off for a month or two at a time with extreme volatility. not that im expecting jan or feb to be extreme but it wouldnt suprise me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBG Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 ive been thinking about that as well....its like we've been on and off for a month or two at a time with extreme volatility. not that im expecting jan or feb to be extreme but it wouldnt suprise me. Remember, this is La Niña. Volatility is the norm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 Any word on the 00z GFS ensembles, Snow88? Happy December, all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 Here is a post I just wrote (scheduled to be posted at 12am) which essentially details some thoughts on the pattern through Dec. Happy winter, dudes. http://nymetrowx.blo...-here-does.html Excellent, and right on the money!! WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 Excellent, and right on the money!! WX/PT Thank you! Glad you enjoyed reading it. Not much more can be said about the pattern at this point, from here on out it's a waiting game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 Great post John. Nothing really to argue with in it. Once the PNA ridging relaxes by mid month, we're left with an unfavorable arctic, north atlantic, and north pacific, which is the unholy trio of miserable winter weather. With no help from the MJO for the forseeable future, we may be on suicide watch for the Dec 15th-25th period. I checked stratospheric anomalies and forecasts for the next 1-2 weeks, cold to very cold conditions look to prevail. Geomagnetic activity is quiet, however, and I do expect this to kick in sooner or later with regards to blocking. There should be improvement by the last week of December, how much improvement, I'm not sure yet. As far as snowfall, it's going to be about luck timing short waves w/ cold shots given there's no blocking to hold antecedent airmasses in place over the Northeast. And generally when we bet on lucky timing, we come up short. So I'm not very optimistic about snow accumulation most of this month for I-95. Cold air on the other hand, I think we'll see plenty of that. Thanks bud. Very much agreed on all counts. We've really been in lock-step so far leading up to this winter. Now that it's December 1st, let the games begin. PS---The MJO, in the back of my mind, has me a little concerned. Having it loop back into the COD and then into Phases 3-4 in Late Dec would be an electric bath timeline of events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 Thank you! Glad you enjoyed reading it. Not much more can be said about the pattern at this point, from here on out it's a waiting game. It is a good read. I'm glad you pointed out a quicker change can happen. We also have to watch for well-timed snows. Those probably won't be major the next couple weeks, but would add to the winter feel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 Any word on the 00z GFS ensembles Nothing too great. The PNA ridge goes flat after Day 7 (actually retrogrades to the GOA) and the mean trough axis is over the MS Valley. No big southeast ridge on the mean, but no blocking either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 Nothing too great. The PNA ridge goes flat after Day 7 and the mean trough axis is over the MS Valley. No big southeast ridge on the mean, but no blocking either. Sounds like it is better than the OP at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 Still no sign of a -NAO on the gfs. Maybe this december is last years february? looking at the nao graph we havent seen a sustained period of blocking since last July/early august. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 Remember, this is La Niña. Volatility is the norm. global warming > la nina Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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