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Early December Obs/ General Banter


Baroclinic Zone

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ok think I cleared up everyone that was suspended in the random moderator power trip.

Thanks!

That was absurd. I understand perhaps the weather side isn't a place to take up certain things but this was completely ridiculous.

Anyways to contribute some met. here it's quite chilly outside...feels kind of nice actually to feel that coldness in the air again.

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We could obviously get some events..especially you guys in SNE..but i def. don't think the pattern is flipping completely by Dec 18 like he says.

That's basically a 10 day lead and every single model, it's ensembles, and their mothers have an unfavorable pattern through then.

A change in the QBO isn't going to flip the pattern in 10 days.

Just my opinion. My original call in Oct was for a Dec 15 pattern change and a big SWFE Dec 20 and by the looks of it that may bust horribly.

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We could obviously get some events..especially you guys in SNE..but i def. don't think the pattern is flipping completely by Dec 18 like he says.

That's basically a 10 day lead and every single model, it's ensembles, and their mothers have an unfavorable pattern through then.

A change in the QBO isn't going to flip the pattern in 10 days.

Just my opinion. My original call in Oct was for a Dec 15 pattern change and a big SWFE Dec 20 and by the looks of it that may bust horribly.

Actually Euro EnS look good 8-15 from what Scott said, weeklies blow.

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We could obviously get some events..especially you guys in SNE..but i def. don't think the pattern is flipping completely by Dec 18 like he says.

That's basically a 10 day lead and every single model, it's ensembles, and their mothers have an unfavorable pattern through then.

A change in the QBO isn't going to flip the pattern in 10 days.

Just my opinion. My original call in Oct was for a Dec 15 pattern change and a big SWFE Dec 20 and by the looks of it that may bust horribly.

Nothing against the guy, personally....but he strikes me as a weenie. We are talking January for a bonafide change.

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Nothing against the guy, personally....but he strikes me as a weenie. We are talking January for a bonafide change.

I've got nothing against him either. He is most famous for calling for a million inches of snow 6 hours before the Feb 2007 event in the NYC area which was a total bust. So now most people associate him with that.

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We could obviously get some events..especially you guys in SNE..but i def. don't think the pattern is flipping completely by Dec 18 like he says.

That's basically a 10 day lead and every single model, it's ensembles, and their mothers have an unfavorable pattern through then.

A change in the QBO isn't going to flip the pattern in 10 days.

Just my opinion. My original call in Oct was for a Dec 15 pattern change and a big SWFE Dec 20 and by the looks of it that may bust horribly.

I completely agree...I just don't see this pattern flipping THAT quickly or even anytime soon. We are just stuck in this God awful pattern and we need something to change it...I highly doubt the QBO does anything to change the pattern that quickly, as you said the delay is kind of significant between QBO and pattern impacts.

I have said before if we want to see major changes we are going to need major help from MJO activity which can be tough given it's a Nina but we just need the MJO to really alter, or help alter things in the Pacific then we can work from there.

I'm also not really liking this pretty cold stratosphere right now and the strong zonal winds around the Pole...going to be tough to get a -AO and -NAO with those features in place.

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Actually Euro EnS look good 8-15 from what Scott said, weeklies blow.

Euro had something at 240h last night, didn't it?

Some of the GEFS had a better-than-transient ridge over Greenland...but nothing to scream about.

Every day I'm looking for some real positive signs...but it's been a while since I've seen any..especially regarding high latitude blocking. Stratosphere is in a real slumber right now.

It is also fitting that the MJO would go into Phase 5, and then loop through the COD to re-emerge in Phase 3 again.

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I've got nothing against him either. He is most famous for calling for a million inches of snow 6 hours before the Feb 2007 event in the NYC area which was a total bust. So now most people associate him with that.

I remember that....I was like, "what is he smoking"....he def. has a cold bias.

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