ChrisM Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 and we're back lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 How's Europe? Cold and dark-- I'm adjusting to the early-nightfall thing. Otherwise fine. Thanks for asking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 Cold and dark-- I'm adjusting to the early-nightfall thing. Otherwise fine. Thanks for asking. You in Czech? Wow what a contrast? How long? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 ok think I cleared up everyone that was suspended in the random moderator power trip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 whoa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 Nope...about a 1/4 way filled. Sorry if I offended anyone with any comment I made I would imagine you would get a PM with a warning. I would PM Dendrite, Will or Bob and ask them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 Ginx, and you thought Bob went on a power trip ...that was a power trip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 ok think I cleared up everyone that was suspended in the random moderator power trip. Thanks! That was absurd. I understand perhaps the weather side isn't a place to take up certain things but this was completely ridiculous. Anyways to contribute some met. here it's quite chilly outside...feels kind of nice actually to feel that coldness in the air again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 ok think I cleared up everyone that was suspended in the random moderator power trip. Thank you, now I take back anything bad I said about the skin, your plants or wanting -40 degree cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 Everything has been cleared up. None of that was necessary. Carry on fellas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 Ginx, and you thought Bob went on a power trip ...that was a power trip LOL, Bob knows we just bust him, he is one of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 Well, that was a quick 3 days...time flies when you're having fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 Everything has been cleared up. None of that was necessary. Carry on fellas. Thanks John, did you see Dimartinos video?, man I hope so!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 Nice work Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 Everything has been cleared up. None of that was necessary. Carry on fellas. Thanks, bro.....make sure S Bos wx was liberated, too.....Jay Kenney. Appreciate it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 Thanks John, did you see Dimartinos video?, man I hope so!! I did. Nice explanation but I think he's too quick. The QBO/etc which he explained often has as much of a 2 month delay in pattern effects. Also, take a look at the MJO forecasts from GEFS and ECM extended. Toaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 We could obviously get some events..especially you guys in SNE..but i def. don't think the pattern is flipping completely by Dec 18 like he says. That's basically a 10 day lead and every single model, it's ensembles, and their mothers have an unfavorable pattern through then. A change in the QBO isn't going to flip the pattern in 10 days. Just my opinion. My original call in Oct was for a Dec 15 pattern change and a big SWFE Dec 20 and by the looks of it that may bust horribly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 it's going to snow in a few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 We could obviously get some events..especially you guys in SNE..but i def. don't think the pattern is flipping completely by Dec 18 like he says. That's basically a 10 day lead and every single model, it's ensembles, and their mothers have an unfavorable pattern through then. A change in the QBO isn't going to flip the pattern in 10 days. Just my opinion. My original call in Oct was for a Dec 15 pattern change and a big SWFE Dec 20 and by the looks of it that may bust horribly. Actually Euro EnS look good 8-15 from what Scott said, weeklies blow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 We could obviously get some events..especially you guys in SNE..but i def. don't think the pattern is flipping completely by Dec 18 like he says. That's basically a 10 day lead and every single model, it's ensembles, and their mothers have an unfavorable pattern through then. A change in the QBO isn't going to flip the pattern in 10 days. Just my opinion. My original call in Oct was for a Dec 15 pattern change and a big SWFE Dec 20 and by the looks of it that may bust horribly. Nothing against the guy, personally....but he strikes me as a weenie. We are talking January for a bonafide change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 it's going to snow in a few hours. LES HO, congrats Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 Nothing against the guy, personally....but he strikes me as a weenie. We are talking January for a bonafide change. I've got nothing against him either. He is most famous for calling for a million inches of snow 6 hours before the Feb 2007 event in the NYC area which was a total bust. So now most people associate him with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 We could obviously get some events..especially you guys in SNE..but i def. don't think the pattern is flipping completely by Dec 18 like he says. That's basically a 10 day lead and every single model, it's ensembles, and their mothers have an unfavorable pattern through then. A change in the QBO isn't going to flip the pattern in 10 days. Just my opinion. My original call in Oct was for a Dec 15 pattern change and a big SWFE Dec 20 and by the looks of it that may bust horribly. I completely agree...I just don't see this pattern flipping THAT quickly or even anytime soon. We are just stuck in this God awful pattern and we need something to change it...I highly doubt the QBO does anything to change the pattern that quickly, as you said the delay is kind of significant between QBO and pattern impacts. I have said before if we want to see major changes we are going to need major help from MJO activity which can be tough given it's a Nina but we just need the MJO to really alter, or help alter things in the Pacific then we can work from there. I'm also not really liking this pretty cold stratosphere right now and the strong zonal winds around the Pole...going to be tough to get a -AO and -NAO with those features in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 Actually Euro EnS look good 8-15 from what Scott said, weeklies blow. Euro had something at 240h last night, didn't it? Some of the GEFS had a better-than-transient ridge over Greenland...but nothing to scream about. Every day I'm looking for some real positive signs...but it's been a while since I've seen any..especially regarding high latitude blocking. Stratosphere is in a real slumber right now. It is also fitting that the MJO would go into Phase 5, and then loop through the COD to re-emerge in Phase 3 again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 Nothing against the guy, personally....but he strikes me as a weenie. We are talking January for a bonafide change. Nothing wrong actually with his scientific reasoning, all plausible. Exact same thing happened in 93/94 70/71. He could be very wrong but it is in the realm of possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 I've got nothing against him either. He is most famous for calling for a million inches of snow 6 hours before the Feb 2007 event in the NYC area which was a total bust. So now most people associate him with that. 1/2 a degree killed all of us in the sleet fest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 You in Czech? Wow what a contrast? How long? Yeah, it is a harsh contrast-- especially given that I was in Boca Raton, Florida, all weekend. lolz Only here for a month, so not so bad. A month is cool. ok think I cleared up everyone that was suspended in the random moderator power trip. Hawtness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 I've got nothing against him either. He is most famous for calling for a million inches of snow 6 hours before the Feb 2007 event in the NYC area which was a total bust. So now most people associate him with that. I remember that....I was like, "what is he smoking"....he def. has a cold bias. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 1/2 a degree killed all of us in the sleet fest Nightmare event...I will forever have that forecast sounding stuck in my head. Death to all warm layers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 Nothing wrong actually with his scientific reasoning, all plausible. Exact same thing happened in 93/94 70/71. He could be very wrong but it is in the realm of possibility. I didn't read it TBH, so maybe it is scientifically feasible, but it won't happen. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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