Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 GFS looks more "interesting" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 gfs seems to be well east of 18z with the mid week wave... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 actually looks good for NNE at 850...havent looked at the surface Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 4 PM Tuesday! The 0C 850 line reaches me on the GFS. Takes 48 hours to run the NY State Thruway from BUF to here, but at least it's something. 12\17\08 was my first measurable of that season....2.5".....80" later, it was a helluva season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 Yea, you just walked into The Skybox and started rippn' beers back like you owned the place....they were probably too afraid of you to ask for an ID. OT but we are getting bamboozled in less than 3 weeks oh boy g2g planninh time boston area peeps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 GFS trying to pull a euro from 2 days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 GFS trying to pull a euro from 2 days ago. I still think this has a shot. It's not a huge shot by any means, but there's something there. We need the first wave to move by dragging the front through then numero two smokes us. Euro may bring it tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 I still think this has a shot. It's not a huge shot by any means, but there's something there. We need the first wave to move by dragging the front through then numero two smokes us. Euro may bring it tonight. too bad the surface is still 40+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 I was doing well, but last night's guidance finally send me over the edge into miny meltdown status......it's been 11 months since anything that I would consider exciting has occured. Even the crapper GEM ensembles offered something. Pattern is not pleasant at all, but the stats Will pulled up and some of the subtle "hints" on the ensembles have been showing the chance for one or two wintry deals, possibly. They've been doing this for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 Guys...please refrain from the posts about next Tuesday....Ray is not interested in any threats for at least 2 weeks. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 Still maybe just a few flakes at the end...but maybe it will turn a bit better as we get closer...I don't have much hope for this system, but who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 too bad the surface is still 40+ It's also 150 hours away which is why the details dont matter right now. What I liked to see tonight was the trough staying more positively tilted earlier but with a bowling ball in the base. That's what we need to keep seeing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 I still think this has a shot. It's not a huge shot by any means, but there's something there. We need the first wave to move by dragging the front through then numero two smokes us. Euro may bring it tonight. Yeah maybe...I suppose if it digs deep enough, but I'm not really feeling it right now. GFS still says that maybe north of the Pike has a shot of a flurry or SHSN Friday aftn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 It's also 150 hours away which is why the details dont matter right now. What I liked to see tonight was the trough staying more positively tilted earlier but with a bowling ball in the base. That's what we need to keep seeing. yeah it does look much better. Plenty of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 GFS tries to ram the storm into the Bermuda high. It's a squeeeez play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 Just seems like a series of waves along the front. Someone gets "lucky" they may be the recipient of a modest anafrontal snowfall. It could be me, or it could be you a day late with a different wave.... I still think this has a shot. It's not a huge shot by any means, but there's something there. We need the first wave to move by dragging the front through then numero two smokes us. Euro may bring it tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 I hate seeing these troughs look so sharp and so cold over the Midwest, only to lift on out and fill in as they move east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 Yeah maybe...I suppose if it digs deep enough, but I'm not really feeling it right now. GFS still says that maybe north of the Pike has a shot of a flurry or SHSN Friday aftn. I'm not sure on the evolution Scott...IE, I'm nowhere near that point just yet because it seems like the only idea we have right now is that the models want to develop something, and that there's a lot of upper energy rolling through. TBD is 1 wave that bombs and slows, or 2 waves. I'm betting the Euro is interesting tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 If it bombs it's probably too far west for us..... The modest multiple wave solution could at least off some snow chances. I'm not sure on the evolution Scott...IE, I'm nowhere near that point just yet because it seems like the only idea we have right now is that the models want to develop something, and that there's a lot of upper energy rolling through. TBD is 1 wave that bombs and slows, or 2 waves. I'm betting the Euro is interesting tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 LOL, Jerry's overrunning fetish on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 Or more of a rinse and repeat of the 120-168 hour event.... By quirk of luck the latter event does have overunning snow at out latitude but subsequent runs might push that into Quebec. LOL LOL, Jerry's overrunning fetish on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 OT but we are getting bamboozled in less than 3 weeks oh boy g2g planninh time boston area peeps Hit me up....I'll take the train in.....my pick is Fanieul Hall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 LOL, Jerry's overrunning fetish on the GFS. Pretty active pattern at least depicted in the LR. What is this going to be like 97-98 with a million events but squat for snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 Or more of a rinse and repeat of the 120-168 hour event.... By quirk of luck the latter event does have overunning snow at out latitude but subsequent runs might push that into Quebec. LOL It had that '93-'94 look with the cold spread out and pressing down over the east for a time. It's the op run, so you know the drill. Anything goes beyond 180hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Girl 22 Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 I'm looking at that 150 plus hour period. . Which is more important, the 0C line at 850 MB or the 540 line at 500 MB as far as the rain/snow line? I notice the 540 line at 500 MB is a tad more North than the 0C at 850 MB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 GFS does have "our event" on 12/11...very typical gradient pattern type event. SE ridge is flexing its muscles so we are walking a tight rope, but we have known that for a while here on this upcoming pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 GFS does have "our event" on 12/11...very typical gradient pattern type event. SE ridge is flexing its muscles so we are walking a tight rope, but we have known that for a while here on this upcoming pattern. Yeah it looks almost classic. Big trough in the west with a s/w ejecting out from the southwest and moving northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 I'm looking at that 150 plus hour period. . Which is more important, the 0C line at 850 MB or the 540 line at 500 MB as far as the rain/snow line? I notice the 540 line at 500 MB is a tad more North than the 0C at 850 MB. That is fairly typical in a gradient pattern...because you normally do not have a typical lapse rate in the mid-levels. 850mb can be like -3C and 750mb can be the same temp or even warmer in a gradient SW flow pattern....in a typical airmass, 750mb would be noticeably colder than 850mb...but because it isn't in that type of pattern, it raises the 1000-500mb thicknesses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 This insanely positive AO is going to brutally kill us for quite a while. This blows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 Yeah it looks almost classic. Big trough in the west with a s/w ejecting out from the southwest and moving northeast. I did like the parade of high pressures moving north of us in Quebec. That is good for us in gradient patterns. We'll be walking a fine line, but as long as we don't see a big phasing system come out of the SW...we might cash in on one of these things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.