dryslot Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 It really blows that we have nothing to talk about the last week or so with the NAM. Everything of any interest is so far beyond it, we just ignore it. Yes, Then you throw the GFS in there thats totally useless and you end up with 2 model runs per day with the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 The NAM still has a decently south vortmax track for Fri evening. Marginal WINDEX numbers remain. NNE will have the best shot at anything. But definitely can't rule out a snow shower or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 I feel like the front next week has been 168 hours away for the past two days, so it would be nice if that was only 152 hours away on tonights gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 Yes, Then you throw the GFS in there thats totally useless and you end up with 2 model runs per day with the Euro LOL very true. I can never remember a "winter" like this but then again its not winter. The NAM still has a decently south vortmax track for Fri evening. Marginal WINDEX numbers remain. NNE will have the best shot at anything. But definitely can't rule out a snow shower or two. How's temps? I feel like the front next week has been 168 hours away for the past two days, so it would be nice if that was only 152 hours away on tonights gfs. Pattern Creep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 How's temps? Cold enough aloft for snow if we get a random squall or snow shower. It will prob be a bit warm at the sfc...near 40F. But that would get mixed out pretty quickly. Saturday could be a pretty cold day...might be our first negative departure in a long time. We'll have to wait and see. Brief cooldown though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 Yeah Saturday looks pretty cold on the nam. Maybe 37 for Pete, 38 for ORH, 40-41 for interior costal plain and 42 or so at Logan? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 There is not an embryo of an event on the charts that I gave a flying fu** about for the next 2 weeks. Have yet to view model output, nor order the EURO and do not see myself doing either for the foreseeable future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 Rare seasonable daytime here today ...held at 41/42 all day after falling to that around 9 AM.... But of course way above normal on the day given the mild start..... 32 now. Cold enough aloft for snow if we get a random squall or snow shower. It will prob be a bit warm at the sfc...near 40F. But that would get mixed out pretty quickly. Saturday could be a pretty cold day...might be our first negative departure in a long time. We'll have to wait and see. Brief cooldown though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 There is not an embryo of an event on the charts that I gave a flying fu** about for the next 2 weeks. Have yet to view model output, not order the EURO and do not see myself doing either for the forseeable future. I think we can keep an eye on the 12/10-13 period....but its far enough out that looking at models are useless at the moment, but the general pattern seems to want to try and support a possible threat in there. The analog dates I showed with the snowfall were actually not bad. Prob greater than 50/50 we get a >3" snowfall during that span if the pattern behaves as modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 There is not an embryo of an event on the charts that I gave a flying fu** about for the next 2 weeks. Have yet to view model output, not order the EURO and do not see myself doing either for the foreseeable future. i feel like in about a week's time will be keying in on something. more just gut feeling than anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 I think we can keep an eye on the 12/10-13 period....but its far enough out that looking at models are useless at the moment, but the general pattern seems to want to try and support a possible threat in there. The analog dates I showed with the snowfall were actually not bad. Prob greater than 50/50 we get a >3" snowfall during that span if the pattern behaves as modeled. Oh, was that the 12\13\07 post.... I sure hope that evolves into a real threat so that we are not discussing xmas shopping @ the gtg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 Oh, was that the 12\13\07 post.... I sure hope that evolves into a real threat so that we are not discussing xmas shopping @ the gtg. the overall pattern does suck, but it definitely improves for a time before mid-month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 If there is a threat in the 12/11-12/14 period then I might have to show up at the gtg...I couldn't go a full day without reading some posts about the storm from some of the mets on here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 Maybe that will be a decent squall line coming through here with that trough later Friday afternoon.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 i feel like in about a week's time will be keying in on something. more just gut feeling than anything. I was doing well, but last night's guidance finally send me over the edge into miny meltdown status......it's been 11 months since anything that I would consider exciting has occured. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 Oh, was that the 12\13\07 post.... I sure hope that evolves into a real threat so that we are not discussing xmas shopping @ the gtg. No, it was this post: Despite some terrible analog dates centered around Dec 10th...there are snow chances. Even Dec 1990 had one right after Christmas and one of the analog dates is Xmas 1990. I went through the analog dates on CPC for Dec 10 next weekend and looked at BOS snowfall within 5 days of those dates and here is what I came up with: 12/21/70....18.6" 12/1/04......Trace 12/25/90....1.2" (a lot more interior) 12/19/92....Trace 12/15/71....3.7" 12/13/75....3.0" (over 15" more a few days later) 12/28/67....14.7" 12/24/04....7.2" 12/16/90....Trace This suggests that this pattern despite overall being far from very cold still has a pretty decent shot to produce some type of event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 If there is a threat in the 12/11-12/14 period then I might have to show up at the gtg...I couldn't go a full day without reading some posts about the storm from some of the mets on here. Dude, it's in your back yard....I know you aren't 21, but just rip some back with some underclass girls in a shed or something, then fly on over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 Dude, it's in your back yard....I know you aren't 21, but just rip some back with some underclass girls in shed or something, then fly on over. We'll see, I might be able to come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 No, it was this post: Oh, I missed that...thx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 We'll see, I might be able to come. You could bum an ID from someone, too... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 Oh, I missed that...thx. I just hope the pattern pans out as currently modeled by the ensembles...or better. Just hopefully not worse. If it does pan out similar to what is shown, then I think we'll have a legit threat to track. You can see how most of the analogs had a decent event or two. The top analog was actually 1970, lol...but I don't see that happening. The GGEM had 12/10/07 as an analog...which of course is 3 days before the 12/13 event. We'll keep our fingers crossed that the upcoming pattern will get the ball rolling...hopefully we can hang near average after that for a week in a gradient pattern rather than torching again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 You could bum an ID from someone, too... Well, I don't need to do that...unless you guys chill out in a bar area that they require 21+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 Well, I don't need to do that...unless you guys chill out in a bar area that they require 21+. I'm not sure if that place is like that....maybe Will knows... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 The windex snow for fri night looks a little better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 The windex snow for fri night looks a little better I'm not expecting much, but hoping for a quick snow shower...maybe enough to briefly whiten things to remind us its December. Up by Powderfreak they have a much better shot at seeing some real squalls. Add in a little upslope fetish for Ray and he will be happy. Hopefully this ends up like Dec 2008 in which it looked pretty hopeless for a brief period before the ice storm and maybe just after too...Kevin had a huge meltdown on eastern saying we'd have brown grass and 50s through Christmas and then that 12/19/08 event snuck up on us about 5 days out...the models pushed the cold air much further south in a gradient pattern and we saw that event come upon us...then shortly after the 12/21 event appeared and trended colder every step of the way so that by the end, Ray was playing naked twister with the CF and getting a foot of snow when initially 3 days out it looked like snow to sleet to rain (zr interior). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 I'm not expecting much, but hoping for a quick snow shower...maybe enough to briefly whiten things to remind us its December. Up by Powderfreak they have a much better shot at seeing some real squalls. Add in a little upslope fetish for Ray and he will be happy. Hopefully this ends up like Dec 2008 in which it looked pretty hopeless for a brief period before the ice storm and maybe just after too...Kevin had a huge meltdown on eastern saying we'd have brown grass and 50s through Christmas and then that 12/19/08 event snuck up on us about 5 days out...the models pushed the cold air much further south in a gradient pattern and we saw that event come upon us...then shortly after the 12/21 event appeared and trended colder every step of the way so that by the end, Ray was playing naked twister with the CF and getting a foot of snow when initially 3 days out it looked like snow to sleet to rain (zr interior). Its sad when you have to hope for some weenie flakes from a cold front, I remember that in 2008, If we get some chances in the next couple of weeks hopefully we should be able to sneak something out while waiting for a pattern change to more favorable winter weather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 Dude, it's in your back yard....I know you aren't 21, but just rip some back with some underclass girls in a shed or something, then fly on over. That bar up around you sure carded me that night. Then again i look like im 45 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 I'm not expecting much, but hoping for a quick snow shower...maybe enough to briefly whiten things to remind us its December. Up by Powderfreak they have a much better shot at seeing some real squalls. Add in a little upslope fetish for Ray and he will be happy. Hopefully this ends up like Dec 2008 in which it looked pretty hopeless for a brief period before the ice storm and maybe just after too...Kevin had a huge meltdown on eastern saying we'd have brown grass and 50s through Christmas and then that 12/19/08 event snuck up on us about 5 days out...the models pushed the cold air much further south in a gradient pattern and we saw that event come upon us...then shortly after the 12/21 event appeared and trended colder every step of the way so that by the end, Ray was playing naked twister with the CF and getting a foot of snow when initially 3 days out it looked like snow to sleet to rain (zr interior). 12\17\08 was my first measurable of that season....2.5".....80" later, it was a helluva season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 That bar up around you sure carded me that night. Then again i look like im 45 Yea, you just walked into The Skybox and started rippn' beers back like you owned the place....they were probably too afraid of you to ask for an ID. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 12\17\08 was my first measurable of that season....2.5".....80" later, it was a helluva season. Yes it was an anafrontal wave after we got that cold air in place that set the stage for the 12/19 event. We had been in the 50s for a couple days previously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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