dryslot Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 lol the 18z GFS 200 mile shifts each run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 Lots of talk of impending snow. Heavy heavy disappointment possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 this is in my forecast, woot woot;Wednesday Night: Rain and snow likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 30. Chance of precipitation is 60%.Thursday: A chance of snow, with a high near 40. Chance of precipitation is 30%. GFS has a snowy day for us Thursday. Forecast has things clearing out here by Thursday, but show a little snow on Wed night. Something to watch in any case. It's much better to see enthusiastic posts like this instead of the doom and gloom that have been oh-so-prevalent of late. Nice day in spite of having had to go to the Natick Mall. What a zoo. 33.2/21 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 Would the increased flow from the northern stream help to deflect the storm southward? Or would the vigorous s/w incoming from the midwest help amplify the trough and continue it northward? Well we needed the northern stream to speed up to push that cold frontal passage through to even get us cold enough to snow. Then it comes down the southern stream and how much we can amplify the system. The GFS is dampening out the shortwave as it moves eastward and I'm not sure we can get this to be a blockbuster. Maybe a decent quick-hitting system for some though...the EC ens hinted at a light event as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 me like the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 lol the 18z GFS 200 mile shifts each run like Scooter says, run off of Kevin's Laptop every night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 Euro ensembles aren't half bad taken verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 Well we needed the northern stream to speed up to push that cold frontal passage through to even get us cold enough to snow. Then it comes down the southern stream and how much we can amplify the system. The GFS is dampening out the shortwave as it moves eastward and I'm not sure we can get this to be a blockbuster. Maybe a decent quick-hitting system for some though...the EC ens hinted at a light event as well. Right. Looks pretty decent for interior SNE and maybe parts of CNE. Yeah, the s/w is definitely losing steam as it heads east and phasing doesn't look to occur until the system is well east of New England. Atleast the GFS put down the crack pipe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 where's rev kev to la la lock in Thursday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 Euro ensembles aren't half bad taken verbatim. They're not as bad as previous runs. I don't like the lack of ridging over GOA/N PAC though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 Lots of talk of impending snow. Heavy heavy disappointment possible. Talk is cheap, better than discussing tractor blades, farmer jeans and blooming forsythias. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 Euro ensembles aren't half bad taken verbatim. Good to hear, Things may be looking up... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 Well we needed the northern stream to speed up to push that cold frontal passage through to even get us cold enough to snow. Then it comes down the southern stream and how much we can amplify the system. The GFS is dampening out the shortwave as it moves eastward and I'm not sure we can get this to be a blockbuster. anything man!...the EC ens hinted at a light event as well. FYP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 FYP initiate cyclogenesis along the coastal front boundary Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 They're not as bad as previous runs. I don't like the lack of ridging over GOA/N PAC though. Yeah that part stinks. Still is a lot of question marks with that. I think they'll be a milder period, but tough to tell if it's 1 day 2 days or 10 days. AO is locked in positve mode so kiss it goodbye. We will be at the mercy of every ebb and flow with that ridging and how far south the cold bleeds into the US. With that, you can see how every run could have a different solution in our back yard. A little dip here, a bump there..and the sensible wx outcome here is huge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 Yeah that part stinks. Still is a lot of question marks with that. I think they'll be a milder period, but tough to tell if it's 1 day 2 days or 10 days. AO is locked in positve mode so kiss it goodbye. We will be at the mercy of every ebb and flow with that ridging and how far south the cold bleeds into the US. With that, you can see how every run could have a different solution in our back yard. A little dip here, a bump there..and the sensible wx outcome here is huge. Yup, exactly. The GEFS are definitely better than Euro ensembles though lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 GFS with not one, but two threats..only the 18z GFS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 Yeah that part stinks. Still is a lot of question marks with that. I think they'll be a milder period, but tough to tell if it's 1 day 2 days or 10 days. AO is locked in positve mode so kiss it goodbye. We will be at the mercy of every ebb and flow with that ridging and how far south the cold bleeds into the US. With that, you can see how every run could have a different solution in our back yard. A little dip here, a bump there..and the sensible wx outcome here is huge. For the first time in recent memory, the meniton of a transitory milder period rather than a transitory colder one. 32.7/21 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 Kevin uploading 18Z on his way to Buf, hacked thru NCEP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 For the first time in recent memory, the meniton of a transitory milder period rather than a transitory colder one. 32.7/21 lol Still too many damned + days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 Yup, exactly. The GEFS are definitely better than Euro ensembles though lol. Yeah lets pull a win for the Americans for once....lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 heavy tracking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 3, 2011 Author Share Posted December 3, 2011 I dont think I ever recall so much shifting of th e modeling run to tun in the near term (up to 5 days). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 I dont think I ever recall so much shifting of th e modeling run to tun in the near term (up to 5 days). These are the shifts that we love Jer. It wasn't until 4 days before 08 in the midst of a crap pattern that the threat emerged out of Rays woodshed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 These are the shifts that we love Jer. It wasn't until 4 days before 08 in the midst of a crap pattern that the threat emerged out of Rays woodshed. His call in jeopardy FTW? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 Lots of talk of impending snow. Heavy heavy disappointment possible. I'm glad you aren't getting excited about any chance you might have for a White Christmas as it seems highly unlikely. Fortunately, here, I think the chances are pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 18z GFS is pretty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 I dont think I ever recall so much shifting of th e modeling run to tun in the near term (up to 5 days). day 5 lol last 4 runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 Midlo is going to have some grade A material if this pattern keeps up. He may have to have a seminar at the conference..just for his photoshops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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