Ginx snewx Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 ' Hey Ginx - it's all good. I'm just a guilty as the next guy at times, and I also have my own brand of sardonics - just a tad drier. We need a Tip annihilator again this year ala Jan 12, but include Phil and Messenger. Every day I see 2004 involved in the mix of analogs on 5h I can not help but think this year explodes and our SE mass crew gets hammered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 Just looking at the 12z GFS and I do find the solution for next week hard to believe. I have a hard time buying into the amplified solution. Something along the lines of the 12 GGEM seems more plausible given the flow across the northern tier states. Boils down to where that PV sets up. If e can get that feature to dig further S in Hudson Bay, we may have a legit threat for the area. But what do I know. Thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 Oh I know - I'm not as obtuse to the sarcasm as all that ... I do, though, honestly at time wish there was a bit less when someone tries harder to be enlightening - Eh, no one around here is using this site to validate their PHD work so you get what you get Well I admit...it can be annoying when you spend time breaking down the overnight models and someone comes in to say...."Looks like models all were cold and snowy tonight...AWT." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 It's just all part of the fun John. I agree with Phil in that anything would be a lot better than this mundane pattern. What always takes me back about that image is that my body actually looks like that ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 Any more boredom for me and it's...... Looks like you are enjoying something else in that pic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 Looks like you are enjoying something else in that pic. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 Just looking at the 12z GFS and I do find the solution for next week hard to believe. I have a hard time buying into the amplified solution. Something along the lines of the 12 GGEM seems more plausible given the flow across the northern tier states. Boils down to where that PV sets up. If e can get that feature to dig further S in Hudson Bay, we may have a legit threat for the area. But what do I know. Thoughts? GGEM is pretty volatile at 144 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 GGEM is pretty volatile at 144 Albeit complete and utter computer enhanced hallucination ... I love the GGEM's extended view (120-180 hours). This flat ...but possibly potent wave that exits D5 helps to finally dismantle the SE ridge. That increases the compressibility of the flow down there, such that the next impulse ...more of a full latitude wave as the GGEM has it, is about to cut-off and go [probably] nuclear for just about everyone from the MA on up. Deterministic = 0 Deliciousness = 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 GGEM is pretty volatile at 144 It's a lot flatter than the GFS. If the teleconnectors are to be believed, you have the NAO/AO dropping to almost neutral in that timeframe, I'd have to think a more southerly solution is in the cards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 It's a lot flatter than the GFS. If the teleconnectors are to be believed, you have the NAO/AO dropping to almost neutral in that timeframe, I'd have to think a more southerly solution is in the cards. Good post! It was one of the ideas I wanted to hit at this morning, in that though the indexes are positive through the frames in question there is a significant enough declination to assist lesser westerward track out in time. Unfortunately, that means there is a background differential going on upon each consecutive model run, so determinism is a commodity for the time being. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 It's a lot flatter than the GFS. If the teleconnectors are to be believed, you have the NAO/AO dropping to almost neutral in that timeframe, I'd have to think a more southerly solution is in the cards. I wish the Reg precip type site would go to 144, nice look at 120. Lets see what Dr No says Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 I wish the Reg precip type site would go to 144, nice look at 120. Lets see what Dr No says Looks suppressed. Flow is too zonal to allow for any amplification. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 Looks suppressed. Flow is too zonal to allow for any amplification. Not bad for a 5 day, North trend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 Looks suppressed. Flow is too zonal to allow for any amplification. If the trough weren't so broad and flat with this PV, we could be in for something. Just something to chew on for the next few days. Also the 12z Euro has another sw out in Idaho that has to round the base of the trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 Not bad for a 5 day, North trend? It's possible imo. All depends on that PV feature and where it inevitable ends up and the shape of it. Might be something where we don't want it to beat down the SE ridge too much so it allows for a more SW-NE alignment as opposed to W-E. I'm scaring myself here as I analyze 5h maps since I have zero educational background in the science. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 I appreciate the breakdown that you folks are providing. I'll sit back and watch how things unfold. Carry on! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 I wish the Reg precip type site would go to 144, nice look at 120. Lets see what Dr No says He says NO....lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 It's possible imo. All depends on that PV feature and where it inevitable ends up and the shape of it. Might be something where we don't want it to beat down the SE ridge too much so it allows for a more SW-NE alignment as opposed to W-E. I'm scaring myself here as I analyze 5h maps since I have zero educational background in the science. Me either Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 It's possible imo. All depends on that PV feature and where it inevitable ends up and the shape of it. Might be something where we don't want it to beat down the SE ridge too much so it allows for a more SW-NE alignment as opposed to W-E. I'm scaring myself here as I analyze 5h maps since I have zero educational background in the science. If the PV is retrogressing any at all west in Canada the trough will sharpen, will not take much. OTS seems as plausible as a GFS bomb, middle ground would mean a chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 Presumably it focused on an earlier impulse which cut west and pulled the front rapidly down ..so the the next one is well offshore and irrelevant. Are the wx underground ecmwf maps defunct? I was holding out for them.... Looks suppressed. Flow is too zonal to allow for any amplification. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 If the PV is retrogressing any at all west in Canada the trough will sharpen, will not take much. OTS seems as plausible as a GFS bomb, middle ground would mean a chance. Yeah, I had mentioned that earlier, A solution between the 2 would be ideal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 If the PV is retrogressing any at all west in Canada the trough will sharpen, will not take much. OTS seems as plausible as a GFS bomb, middle ground would mean a chance. There's a couple threats in there imo, staring late next week through the weekend. The first is the solution that would be suppressed somewhat as the PV is dropping into the Hudson Bay area, the 2nd system is the one that could be the bigger player. The latter still does not look great but it all depends upon the progression of that PV. As I write this I see the 12z Euro going with the uber phased solution with a SLP over CHI at 168h. Big snowstorm out there per the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 Presumably it focused on an earlier impulse which cut west and pulled the front rapidly down ..so the the next one is well offshore and irrelevant. Are the wx underground ecmwf maps defunct? I was holding out for them.... Still there. Does not look like todays run is loaded yet. http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/?zoom=4&rad=0&wxsn=0&svr=0&cams=0&sat=0&riv=0&mm=1&mm.mdl=GFS&mm.type=SURPRE&mm.hour=0&mm.opa=100&mm.clk=0&hur=0&fire=0&tor=0&ndfd=0&pix=0&dir=0&ads=0&tfk=0&fodors=0&ski=0&ls=0&rad2=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 That sounds kinda bizarre. Not much continuity run to run on the Euro.... There's a couple threats in there imo, staring late next week through the weekend. The first is the solution that would be suppressed somewhat as the PV is dropping into the Hudson Bay area, the 2nd system is the one that could be the bigger player. The latter still does not look great but it all depends upon the progression of that PV. As I write this I see the 12z Euro going with the uber phased solution with a SLP over CHI at 168h. Big snowstorm out there per the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 Last time it updated was 12Z yesterday.... Still there. Does not look like todays run is loaded yet. http://www.wundergro...i=0&ls=0&rad2=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 That sounds kinda bizarre. Not much continuity run to run on the Euro.... The 00z and 12z runs today do not look all to dissimilar on the Euro. Both runs have both systems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 12z GEFS keep the Northeast in the icebox beyond next weekend. 850's don't go above 0C. Both threats look to be there. The 1st threat, late next week is clearly there on the run. 2nd threat is tougher to discern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 If the trough weren't so broad and flat with this PV, we could be in for something. Just something to chew on for the next few days. Also the 12z Euro has another sw out in Idaho that has to round the base of the trough. I was gonna say, the Jet streak over BC looks amazing. If we had a right entrance region upstream than you''d get a tripple phaser in the Mississippi valley with that setup.. But since the upstream features aren't in place you will probably get a weak strung out lakes cutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 LOL the Euro is a torch for next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 humbug Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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