CoastalWx Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 I think HM alluded to this, but the 10mb temp anomalies and 50mb temp anomalies have shown a little more positive numbers in the last 24 hrs. That may be the descending -QBO wave doing its work, but it is really too early to say. Any effects usually take a long time to play out, but something to keep an eye on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 What you really want, is for AK to fry and have your long haired friend tell us how bad it is there. When that happens, we cash in. I'll be there from the 18th to 20th, so I can guarantee a raging torch there and a major snowstorm for New England then lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 What you really want, is for AK to fry and have your long haired friend tell us how bad it is there. When that happens, we cash in. Lol. Looking at their forecast we're in trouble. BTW, Pete doesn't have long hair. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 I'll be there from the 18th to 20th, so I can guarantee a raging torch there and a major snowstorm for New England then lol spoken like a true weather weenie. hopefully we can manage something between the 9th and 15th. that's kind of the period i'm looking to for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 Lol. Looking at their forecast we're in trouble. BTW, Pete doesn't have long hair. Another Pete? LOL, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 I think HM alluded to this, but the 10mb temp anomalies and 50mb temp anomalies have shown a little more positive numbers in the last 24 hrs. That may be the descending -QBO wave doing its work, but it is really too early to say. Any effects usually take a long time to play out, but something to keep an eye on. Hey Sam do I have that right? In your mind, what how would the downwelling wave warm the stratosphere? Disturbing the vortex or BD type circulation? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 The Euro ensembles are slightly better...but I think there is still an implied torch on the horizon after Dec 15 or so. I like Phils Dec 9-15 period for possibly getting something in here...mostly likely a SWFE since its a gradient looking pattern. The flattening out of the AK ridge and more troughing on the WC implies that we go back to a torch pattern...we'll have to see...that part is a little ambiguous at the moment. We could try and stay closer to normal up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 I think HM alluded to this, but the 10mb temp anomalies and 50mb temp anomalies have shown a little more positive numbers in the last 24 hrs. That may be the descending -QBO wave doing its work, but it is really too early to say. Any effects usually take a long time to play out, but something to keep an eye on. One small step for weenies... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 The Euro ensembles are slightly better...but I think there is still an implied torch on the horizon after Dec 15 or so. I like Phils Dec 9-15 period for possibly getting something in here...mostly likely a SWFE since its a gradient looking pattern. The flattening out of the AK ridge and more troughing on the WC implies that we go back to a torch pattern...we'll have to see...that part is a little ambiguous at the moment. We could try and stay closer to normal up here. It looks like it could muster a SWFE, but agreed on the post 15th description. Maybe we can get some sort of a compromise with the GEFS. I'm not sure if the EC is too aggressive in lowering heights in AK, but it is also the better ensemble statistically. Of course, it doesn't mean it is more correct, but they are pretty good for a 11-15 day window. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 The Euro ensembles are slightly better...but I think there is still an implied torch on the horizon after Dec 15 or so. I like Phils Dec 9-15 period for possibly getting something in here...mostly likely a SWFE since its a gradient looking pattern. The flattening out of the AK ridge and more troughing on the WC implies that we go back to a torch pattern...we'll have to see...that part is a little ambiguous at the moment. We could try and stay closer to normal up here. Will, Was that at the end of the run that it shows that? Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 CPC on board for some major cooling in the east. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 Will, Was that at the end of the run that it shows that? Thanks Yes...it starts flattening out around D12-15 on the ensembles...its not extreme so there is probably some uncertainty in the ensembles, but if we do return to lower height anomalies over AK with the way the Atlantic is, then that means: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 Another Pete? LOL, Pete and Re-Pete. I'll forego a toaster bath until it's a brown Christmas. If that happens, push the plunger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 Kevin will see the results of his last application of Lesco before he knows it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 Yes...it starts flattening out around D12-15 on the ensembles...its not extreme so there is probably some uncertainty in the ensembles, but if we do return to lower height anomalies over AK with the way the Atlantic is, then that means: Better at the end of the run then the next 7 days.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 CPC on board for some major cooling in the west. LOL Yeah it looks good out there....lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 The ensembles at least offered a couple of chances, but it wouldn't be too hard to go mild with those. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 CPC on board for some major cooling in the east. LOL FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS: BELOW AVERAGE, 2 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5, DUE TO POOR AGREEMENT BETWEEN TELECONNECTIONS FROM THE FORECAST RIDGE IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN AND TELECONNECTIONS FROM THE RIDGE FORECAST IN THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 The next gtg will have Funky Murphys front windows open Shorts and sundresses We can play hackey sack in the parking lot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS: BELOW AVERAGE, 2 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5, DUE TO POOR AGREEMENT BETWEEN TELECONNECTIONS FROM THE FORECAST RIDGE IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN AND TELECONNECTIONS FROM THE RIDGE FORECAST IN THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. Yes but that doesn't mean it could only be colder....can also assume they may not be warm enough in that period of time. In the last few weeks none of the forecasts have been warm enough at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 Hey Sam do I have that right? In your mind, what how would the downwelling wave warm the stratosphere? Disturbing the vortex or BD type circulation? Yeah, I mentioned that also yesterday; that the Euro is showing some warming around 10mb later next week, with the vortex becoming a little less symmetric. I think this projected warming is a response to a mountain torque event, so the vertically propagating wave disturbs the polar vortex. In general though, yeah the easterly QBO wave is now descending at a good clip, and the November QBO should come in <-5m/s. This will tend to promote a warmer upper stratosphere, making it easier for the PV to become disturbed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 December 1990 keeps showing up in the analogs a lot recently for GEFS and GGEM ensembles. What a terrible month that was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 Yeah, I mentioned that also yesterday; that the Euro is showing some warming around 10mb later next week, with the vortex becoming a little less symmetric. I think this projected warming is a response to a mountain torque event, so the vertically propagating wave disturbs the polar vortex. In general though, yeah the easterly QBO wave is now descending at a good clip, and the November QBO should come in <-5m/s. This will tend to promote a warmer upper stratosphere, making it easier for the PV to become disturbed. What's the typical lag time for something like that to positively influce our inferno? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 December 1990 keeps showing up in the analogs a lot recently for GEFS and GGEM ensembles. What a terrible month that was. you should probably take a few days off from the board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 I can't recall any good snowstorms that winter. I checked and only 31" fell in 90-91 in Saugerties...below ALB. Perhaps it was better here. ALB only got 29" that winter..... December 1990 keeps showing up in the analogs a lot recently for GEFS and GGEM ensembles. What a terrible month that was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 Yeah, I mentioned that also yesterday; that the Euro is showing some warming around 10mb later next week, with the vortex becoming a little less symmetric. I think this projected warming is a response to a mountain torque event, so the vertically propagating wave disturbs the polar vortex. In general though, yeah the easterly QBO wave is now descending at a good clip, and the November QBO should come in <-5m/s. This will tend to promote a warmer upper stratosphere, making it easier for the PV to become disturbed. Not to get OT, but have you done any stratospheric research with Koermer yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 you should probably take a few days off from the board. We should be focusing on the snow event next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 December 1990 keeps showing up in the analogs a lot recently for GEFS and GGEM ensembles. What a terrible month that was. thought those were from GFS not GEFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 What's the typical lag time for something like that to positively influce our inferno? I don't think we'll see much effect from it. Maybe a slackening of the raging +AO for the second half of December Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 For parts of sne there were two major stinkers recently...06-07 and 09-10. A friend of mind who is a met seems to think the bottom is gonna drop out for Jan/Feb too so we will find out i guess in another month or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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