weatherMA Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 Southeast gale for Kevin. Nah, he already tossed all gfs runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 gfs loses 30+mb in 24 hours with that low on thursday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 gfs loses 30+mb in 24 hours with that low on thursday Wild, damaging, southeast gale. He gets his wish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 Wonder what the euro will do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 Wild, damaging, southeast gale. He gets his wish. yep. heavy damage. once-in-a-lifetime destruction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 Kind of funny to have a storm cut west with a high like that. I bet that would probably be more of a mixed event in the interior..esp far interior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 I don't think phased is going to be our friend this winter. Most of the time if a phase a occurs we get screwed. We want gradient events like the multiple wave situation. Hope it reverts back to that and the last one cant end as some snow. That's all I'm really interested in for the next week...that and can some LES make it here. Beyond that who cares about the pattern beyond 10 days...it will do what it will do.... Not at all, But it just shows from run to run the GFS is having trouble with the cold and the placement of the ridge, The cold air looked like it was further SE into canada moving into the NE, And phases into 1 large storm instead of being strung out along the frontal boundry, Looking at last nights Euro, It has the storm but it was offshore heading NE of the benchmark, Take the middle road between the Euro and GFS and someone would be getting a decent snowstorm.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 Kind of funny to have a storm cut west with a high like that. I bet that would probably be more of a mixed event in the interior..esp far elevated interior. Hi. FYP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 yep. heavy damage. once-in-a-lifetime destruction. Kestrel time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 Kind of funny to have a storm cut west with a high like that. I bet that would probably be more of a mixed event in the interior..esp far interior. Take that low track and center it between the GFS and Euro.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 Kind of funny to have a storm cut west with a high like that. I bet that would probably be more of a mixed event in the interior..esp far interior. I get a nice snowstorm haha. Wet snow though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 Take that low track and center it between the GFS and Euro.... It's a weird track, so my money would be a little more east IF that verified. It's silly to comment though since we have solutions all over the place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 Looks like a couple inches of snow on the front end verbatim here. Hopefully the rest of the global suite makes a similar shift in bringing that nrn piece and associated cold front through here sooner setting the stage for the system from the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 Kind of funny to have a storm cut west with a high like that. I bet that would probably be more of a mixed event in the interior..esp far interior. What evolution do you think makes sense? With a high like that, would it be more like a snow->ice>rain? I know its all speculation and could be all rain as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 Kestrel time? i'd welcome rain gauge time at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 I don't think phased is going to be our friend this winter. Most of the time if a phase a occurs we get screwed. We want gradient events like the multiple wave situation. Hope it reverts back to that and the last one cant end as some snow. That's all I'm really interested in for the next week...that and can some LES make it here. Beyond that who cares about the pattern beyond 10 days...it will do what it will do.... Not right now in this pattern, The Euro developed the low on the end of the front once it was well east of here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 It's actually not truly phased... Not much cold air gets drawn into it. Which begs the question...why should it explosively deepen like that?..and over the cordillera to even. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 It's a weird track, so my money would be a little more east IF that verified. It's silly to comment though since we have solutions all over the place. Yeah, From run to run, There has been big differences not just subtle ones, Especially if you compare 06z and 12z GFS, It seems to handling the cold to the north and the ridge to the SE differently Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 wow...missed that 64F at BOS for tuesday on the 00z MOS. ridiculous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 Just in general also...I think most phasing would equal cutters in this La Nina regime. Noreasters may be non-existent....unless you count a Miller B clipper that bombs off NE en route to NS... That could happen.... Not right now in this pattern, The Euro developed the low on the end of the front once it was well east of here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 It's actually not truly phased... Not much cold air gets drawn into it. Which begs the question...why should it explosively deepen like that?..and over the cordillera to even. Thats a pretty rapid intensification for being over land, You would expect that if it was over the gulf stream Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 wow...missed that 64F at BOS for tuesday on the 00z MOS. ridiculous. It's in the mid/upper 50s for most of us at 12z on Tuesday 12/6...55 for a low and low 60s for a high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 Just in general also...I think most phasing would equal cutters in this La Nina regime. Noreasters may be non-existent....unless you count a Miller B clipper that bombs off NE en route to NS... That could happen.... Yeah, I think more Miller B types would be prevelant along with SWFE, This pattern does not look like it would yield to many Miller A's right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 It intensifies over land rapidly because you have a very potent vortmax negatively tilted riding up through PA and NYS...that supercedes any coastal baroclinicity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 It's a Catch 22. The only reason cold air can bleed down ahead is because the energy holds back so far west. If that happens you get a low that winds up too far west for us ultimately. What evolution do you think makes sense? With a high like that, would it be more like a snow->ice>rain? I know its all speculation and could be all rain as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 Wild, damaging, southeast gale. He gets his wish. If he can make it out of buffalo with that wild lake effect event that's ongoing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 What evolution do you think makes sense? With a high like that, would it be more like a snow->ice>rain? I know its all speculation and could be all rain as well. Well I'm just speculating. It could be an inside runner if it really blows up like that. Usually the GFS loves to run lows right into NNE even in cold air damming situations so I figure it probably would not look like that, but if it is that strong..it very well could be mild...even if the low is a little more east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 Poor Kevin isn't having much luck. I probably have to go out to Hamilton, Ontario over the next week/10 days and I am definitely going to pick the day with the best LES potential..... If he can make it out of buffalo with that wild lake effect event that's ongoing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 wonder if the ensembles are split between fairly flat out-to-sea wave and something more robust...the mean is pretty non-descript...but there is some waa that develops over SNE so some members must be going west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 There's an outside chance that we may have to watch for ice in the interior with that system next Wed/Thu. We'll just have to see how much push the northern stream in Canada has to create some good LL cold in New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.