Tropopause_Fold Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 Yeah even a compromise would be good. You probably could put more weight on the euro ensembles, but account for some GEFS. everytime i want to do that, i just think about how the individual ec members have a better resolution than the op GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 Waiting until the 4th quarter to pick a winner isn't juju.It's cheating. You have to put your jujus up on the table and make things happen.That's true juju. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 everytime i want to do that, i just think about how the individual ec members have a better resolution than the op GFS This is a weather forum there is no room for kooky logic like this. Resolution and performance shouldn't be the determing factor in which model you accept, only the amount of cold and snow shown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 Well no kidding an ensemble is better than the weeklies. These reforecast ensembles are based off the GFS..but take into account the biases from what I understand. Let's go with these. Toss Euro ens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 everytime i want to do that, i just think about how the individual ec members have a better resolution than the op GFS Yeah I know. You normally can't beat them, but sometimes they can have a bias. I still side with them until proven wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 Epic epic epic epic epic fail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 It's dumbfounding that a forecast can be that bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 Epic epic epic epic epic fail. it's remarkable. when they finally catch on to the super + regime, maybe then we can expect it to go negative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 Epic epic epic epic epic fail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 it's remarkable. when they finally catch on to the super + regime, maybe then we can expect it to go negative. The EC teleconnections that I can see might be configured a little differently...maybe using 500mb heights, but I'm not sure. Looking back about 2 weeks ago, it was running about 1.5SD too low. So it too has struggled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 Epic epic epic epic epic fail. wow thats sum +AO. Stratosphere is very cold across the Arctic. It would take a while for it to warm up, to be susceptible for blocking to form. I just dont see any -AO forming till at least early January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 The EC teleconnections that I can see might be configured a little differently...maybe using 500mb heights, but I'm not sure. Looking back about 2 weeks ago, it was running about 1.5SD too low. So it too has struggled. Its been a case of which model is the least bad for identifying the problem in the AO. Last year we frequently saw the bias in the other direction...always forecasting the AO too high. It seems when we get a stubborn and stable setup, the models always want to break it down way too quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 12z gfs @75 hrs a little colder over the Greens and White then 06z @ 81 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 Its been a case of which model is the least bad for identifying the problem in the AO. Last year we frequently saw the bias in the other direction...always forecasting the AO too high. It seems when we get a stubborn and stable setup, the models always want to break it down way too quickly. Yeah exactly. It's pretty amazing though and shows you that questioning a downturn in those indices is probably a good idea until you get closer and have more data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 Its been a case of which model is the least bad for identifying the problem in the AO. Last year we frequently saw the bias in the other direction...always forecasting the AO too high. It seems when we get a stubborn and stable setup, the models always want to break it down way too quickly. yeah felt the same way in 09-10 as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 The EC teleconnections that I can see might be configured a little differently...maybe using 500mb heights, but I'm not sure. Looking back about 2 weeks ago, it was running about 1.5SD too low. So it too has struggled. I think part of the trouble for all the models is they tend to like to form strong ridges at times. almost for as long as I can remember, the Euro ahs been a little overzzealous with forecasting blocking over Greenland. That last night's ens mean has a positive nao through the forecast is pretty telling. People shouldn't be surprised about the GFS ensembles underpredicting the ao and nao as it has been doing that pretty much since OCt. What is surprising is how strong the ao has gotten, a 4 SD ao is like wow. Remeinds me of the massive negative one from the past two years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 Yeah the 12ZGFS had a change of though and now holding so much energy back to the southwest that it allows the boundary to slip south of us Tuesday. We'll see. 12z gfs @75 hrs a little colder over the Greens and White then 06z @ 81 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 I think part of the trouble for all the models is they tend to like to form strong ridges at times. almost for as long as I can remember, the Euro ahs been a little overzzealous with forecasting blocking over Greenland. That last night's ens mean has a positive nao through the forecast is pretty telling. People shouldn't be surprised about the GFS ensembles underpredicting the ao and nao as it has been doing that pretty much since OCt. What is surprising is how strong the ao has gotten, a 4 SD ao is like wow. Remeinds me of the massive negative one from the past two years. Yes very strong for sure...defintely not common to see when it is 4 SD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 Yeah the 12ZGFS had a change of though and now holding so much energy back to the southwest that it allows the boundary to slip south of us Tuesday. We'll see. Vastly different, wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 You have to go back to the winter of 2007-2008 to find the last time the AO got that positive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 You have to go back to the winter of 2007-2008 to find the last time the AO got that positive. Oh my. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 gfs is really bombing that low as it moves NE from the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 I don't think I'd take this GFS run too seriously unless the Euro backs it up.... BTW ...the ECM never updated on weaher underground last night. I hope it's fixed today. Vastly different, wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 You have to go back to the winter of 2007-2008 to find the last time the AO got that positive. Another reason why I think its a decent analogue to use for this Winter. Now 2007-08 did not have a huge AK Vortex in December which maybe the outcome this year but it did feature a similar Atlantic/ENSO pattern thus far. Do you have the MJO charts from 2007-08? Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 I don't think I'd take this GFS run too seriously unless the Euro backs it up.... BTW ...the ECM never updated on weaher underground last night. I hope it's fixed today. Not at all, But it just shows from run to run the GFS is having trouble with the cold and the placement of the ridge, The cold air looked like it was further SE into canada moving into the NE, And phases into 1 large storm instead of being strung out along the frontal boundry, Looking at last nights Euro, It has the storm but it was offshore heading NE of the benchmark, Take the middle road between the Euro and GFS and someone would be getting a decent snowstorm.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 You have to go back to the winter of 2007-2008 to find the last time the AO got that positive. In a sick, twisted way I want that +6 member to verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 Southeast gale for Kevin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 Southeast gale for Kevin. I'm still laughing at Ryan's avatar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 I'm still laughing at Ryan's avatar. Yeah that's a good one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 Southeast gale for Kevin. I guess, Well over 2" qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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