CoastalWx Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 The "torch" could end up being more N-C US than New England, given the amount of cold air that will exist in eastern Canada. Yes, the NAO will be positive but I agree with tip that the amount of cold air needs to be considered. An annoying December for sure, especially for New England. At least in the Mid-Atlantic, we know we are screwed outside of CAD areas. Once the cold gets into the interior...it's a b*tch to scour out. Will, Ryan, and I were hoping maybe hr 180-hr 240 or so will hold something for New England. I'm hoping the trough isn't too positively tilted like the euro and ensembles have and any low pressure is well out at sea. There is still plenty of time to wait and see on that. Otherwise the next threat might be mid month, but then the more widespread cold may be missing. It would be nice to get some action here regardless....what an awfully boring pattern so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 Yeah seems like late next week or weekend would be the timeframe for that..then hopefully the warmup is brief before the 20-23rd threat. Dec still comes in above normal but don;t think these calls of of +3 to +5 will verify lol... this has to be a joke right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 I was just going to post that. I think we're seeing just how deep and strong that cold air over Canada is. This might be the best Euro run in weeks What a horror show of a Euro run. Little storminess, a bout of near normal temperatures, and we emerge at D10 to a CONUS torch with a +EPO returning. What a nightmare. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 There is so much weenie fodder in here now. The point is that while the pattern isn't very favorable, we may have a shot or two in the next couple of weeks....maybe a warm up, and then hopefully a cool down towards the end of the month. I'm certainly not impressed by what we have whatsoever, but I don't think climo snowfall is out of reach. It's going to depend on what the EPO does. If it stays flat even during mid month, than we may have to deal with a zonal flow regime and PAC taint. If it can gain any amplitude, we'll have a surge or two of colder air and possible threats. It is what it is...not a terribly wintry pattern, but it could be worse for sure. Lets just hope the mid month warmer period doesn't last long, because there is a risk that it could. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 The "torch" could end up being more N-C US than New England, given the amount of cold air that will exist in eastern Canada. Yes, the NAO will be positive but I agree with tip that the amount of cold air needs to be considered. An annoying December for sure, especially for New England. At least in the Mid-Atlantic, we know we are screwed outside of CAD areas. well this sounds encouraging, given the lack to date of any cold air in eastern canada.....so you see that the changes being advertised by the GFS / euro upcoming will be lingering....? good news. i also read an outlook from Tornado Girl and she foresees a big pattern change coming shortly for the east, in her winter outlook. i dont know about her longterm forecasting, but she is excellent forecasting short term events several days out. encouraged. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 The 18z run never fails...like it's initialized in Kevin's basement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 The 18z run never fails...like it's initialized in Kevin's basement. Why is it so wonky? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 Talk about a Dead Zone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 It seems like this MJO wave is going to have trouble advancing through the Pacific though. Between unfavorable MJO phases and an ice cold stratrosphere with little blocking I'm not sure how to get much long lasting cold in here. Hey Ryan...just wondering what the correlation between the temperature in the strato. and our chances at a cold shot are, or if you could just point me at something I can read about it? Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 NOV QBO is -9.09 good news imho because it didn't flat line around OCT's number of -3.05 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 Hey Ryan...just wondering what the correlation between the temperature in the strato. and our chances at a cold shot are, or if you could just point me at something I can read about it? Thanks! A cold startosphere correlates to an undisturbed polar vortex\+AO.....warm stratosphere to a disturbred polar vortex\-AO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 Gee, I think there are some positive signs in today's guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 3, 2011 Author Share Posted December 3, 2011 The exact time many are calling for a nasty torch. My house money is on Rutgers and HM Who is calling for a torch at that time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 The 00z GFS op looks very cold right through hr384. Take it FWIW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 Latest run of the GFS looks beautiful. If only it were on to something! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 Latest run of the GFS looks beautiful. If only it were on to something! LOL@ hr 180...verbatim it isn't snow but from 180 to 192 verabtim it has a good chunk of NH picking up 2-3" of qpf. Look at how cold in gets just N of the border at the end of the run...wow. Certainly doesn't look like a torch at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 LOL@ hr 180...verbatim it isn't snow but from 180 to 192 verabtim it has a good chunk of NH picking up 2-3" of qpf. Look at how cold in gets just N of the border at the end of the run...wow. Certainly doesn't look like a torch at all. And 00z GEFS looks even better! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 And 00z GEFS looks even better! Where do you look at the GEFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 Where do you look at the GEFS? http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 Canadian is interesting at 144 hours: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 The ECMWF doesn't seem to be updating on weather underground yet.... Or is it a problem with my browser? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 The ECMWF doesn't seem to be updating on weather underground yet.... Or is it a problem with my browser? It's okay you're not missing much..except a -502 meter anomaly off the coast of Greenland: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 The ECMWF doesn't seem to be updating on weather underground yet.... Or is it a problem with my browser? No its not updating but the ECM tonight gets pretty cold..Here is 192 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 We keep getting hi qpf events...they come with great regularity for like 4 months. If that continues we will get a lot of snow, at least up here, in December. There is enough cold air to our north it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 What a sullen bunch. Let's get through Tuesday and things will get better. Flakes in the forecast for many of us on Wednesday night as it is. Make final lawn preprations over the next couple days. Winter about to ensue. 27.8/25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 Have we discussed the 00z GGEM? Nice storm in fantasy land at hour 144. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 Have we discussed the 00z GGEM? Nice storm in fantasy land at hour 144. No--everyone seems to be focusing on how the unfortunate pattern will reload incessently. 28.0/25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 No--everyone seems to be focusing on how the unfortunate pattern will reload incessently. 28.0/25 Well it is a day 7 Canadian prog...haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 Gfs is cold and snowy in the long range...even for mid Atlantic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 Nice overnight model runs ..Once past next Wed winter is here. Big hit on the GGEM and to a lesser extend on the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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