CT Rain Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 what exactly did you take issue with me in my post? I said decent cold into the northeast for a few days...how are the anomalies I posted not indicative of that? I also mentioned the lack of SW trough would lead to a lower chance of storminess. I didn't take issue with anything in your post. I just posted for the sake of SNE posters what the Euro's "decent" cold would mean for our backyards. No reason to be all emotional about the definition of decent cold. Anyway... I am interested to see the Euro ensembles. I'm curious to see if there as bullish as the op run in spreading the cold south and east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 You are such a board drama queen. Yes we do see a cool down. Maybe a day or two a bit below average in SNE. As I (and others) have mentioned the biggest cold would be in NNE and upstate NY. Unfortunately the cool down is transient and not particularly impressive. Classy weatherside non banter thread post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 CPC is having a problem initializing the AO domain as of late, no doubt. They've been correcting it periodically every 3 or so days, only to have the initializations disconnect from verification all over again. The verification curve has a downward turn already of nearly 3SD to just +1.5, yet the initialization as of last night was up are +4. So something is hugely amiss. Initialization aside it doesn't necessarily mean that the unilaterally member reduction in the index going out in time is wrong. There are evidences to the contrary et al in the hemisphere. they've also been biased way way too low going back a solid 10 days now - one of the worst verifications in recent memory over such an extended period..so it's tough to trust them going forward right now, imho. perhaps that's what you are implying by verification and initialization... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 they've also been biased way way too low going back a solid 10 days now - one of the worst verifications i recent memory over such an extended period..so it's tough to trust them going forward right now, imho. Fair enough - There are just beginning evidences now, however, that a dropping AO is in the cards. Just not sure when to say, "hit me" - lol. Anyway, there is some moderation in the 50hpa level temperatures modeled to occur in the D7-15 range now above 60N. Also, there is a strengthening easterly QBO wave right now in the stratosphere/tropopausal depths of 30N, and that is often compensated by an opposing wind tendency - ie, blockng- near 60N out in time. Hard to say when all that comes together but; sure, the GFS mean may indeed be rushing it along ... wouldn't be the first time. But I could see the AO falling over the next 2 weeks regardless of whether the GFS cluster has the timing/spatial relaships to the patter at large, correctly, do in part to these other observations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 I didn't take issue with anything in your post. I just posted for the sake of SNE posters what the Euro's "decent" cold would mean for our backyards. No reason to be all emotional about the definition of decent cold. Anyway... I am interested to see the Euro ensembles. I'm curious to see if there as bullish as the op run in spreading the cold south and east. I'd prefer not to get called names...I thought what you posted was argumentative and not appreciating the totality of what I was saying...but if it wasn't...it's all good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 Fair enough - There are just beginning evidences now, however, that a dropping AO is in the cards. Just not sure when to say, "hit me" - lol. Anyway, there is some moderation in the 50hpa level temperatures modeled to occur in the D7-15 range now above 60N. Also, there is a strengthening easterly QBO wave right now in the stratosphere/tropopausal depths of 30N, and that is often compensated by an opposing wind tendency - ie, blockng- near 60N out in time. Hard to say when all that comes together but; sure, the GFS mean may indeed be rushing it along ... wouldn't be the first time. But I could see the AO falling over the next 2 weeks regardless of whether the GFS cluster has the timing/spatial relaships to the patter at large, correctly, do in part to these other observations. Yeah some subtle warming in the 10mb and 50mb layer..especially 10mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 they've been about as bad as they can be. i can't believe them until they get something right again. whats your opinion of ESRL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 lol. It is funny how it doesn't matter what tone a discussion takes, certain groups (mainly SNE) folks just get freaking gang banged. . . . Very odd culture, but I haven't been around for 10-12 years like some. Petiness and jealousy by those with a snow obsession that spend too much time and vestment over faceless internet voices, who, because of the former mentality, they consider foes. pathetic is a turn that leaps to mind... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 EPO is definitely in our favor...the other indices are not though. I think there is some evidence for a decreasing but remaining positive AO and a decreasing but remain positive NAO from the euro sources, too. The NCEP progs are likely way too bullish with the change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 Classy weatherside non banter thread post. LOL, welcome to our world Heavy heavy LL cold, -EPO starting to get in the models heads. Euro +ePO is transient Ryan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 Must be the new board skin making everyone dilusional... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 2, 2011 Author Share Posted December 2, 2011 I put the toaster in the tub and survived after seeing the long term Euro. Oh wait...I have to get in? Low level Euro temps are way lower than I'd expect given the H5 setup in the final panels. Not sure of that's a signal or just wrong.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 LOL, welcome to our worldHeavy heavy LL cold, -EPO starting to get in the models heads. Euro +ePO is transient Ryan. My ot "hatred" of SNE is mostly just joking around, and im not really in the no banter at all in threads camp, but it really doea make it hard to read sometimes, which sucks because there are a lot of mets and others that i enjoy reading and respect a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 whats your opinion of ESRL can't really say i have one. there still based off GFS. i assume they calculate their domain area differently...i don't check them as regularly as the basic CPC site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 I put the toaster in the tub and survived after seeing the long term Euro. Oh wait...I have to get in? Low level Euro temps are way lower than I'd expect given the H5 setup in the final panels. Not sure of that's a signal or just wrong.... low thicknesses Jerry. Dec 08 5H heights 550 plus while we sat in the 20's with heavy snow for a weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 Yeah some subtle warming in the 10mb and 50mb layer..especially 10mb. I'd also add that temperature moderation in its self is probably not enough, until such time as a measure downward mass propagation is verified, but since the QBO has decided to become interesting as of late, the two together gets interesting rather abruptly in my mind. The moderating temperatures could be like a metaphor for pre-stress on the system because of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 My ot "hatred" of SNE is mostly just joking around, and im not really in the no banter at all in threads camp, but it really doea make it hard to read sometimes, which sucks because there are a lot of mets and others that i enjoy reading and respect a lot. its been tame in here nothing really OT other than Ryan throwing Nick under the bus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 Just a fantastic day 6-10 Euro run today. Unreal how it flipped Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 One potential kick in the nads with this cold shot. It's possible that the orientation on the shot aligns itself such that any sort of low pressure along the coast forms well out at sea, and the only chance of precip is when the pattern becomes more zonal towards mid month. What I mean is that the trough is too positively tilted to fire up a low on the coast like some of the models try to do. A situation where you have the colder air, but no moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 One potential kick in the nads with this cold shot. It's possible that the orientation on the shot aligns itself such that any sort of low pressure along the coast forms well out at sea, and the only chance of precip is when the pattern becomes more zonal towards mid month. What I mean is that the trough is too positively tilted to fire up a low on the coast like some of the models try to do. A situation where you have the colder air, but no moisture. you should probably take a break from the board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 I don't how this winter can be one of the worse when it has not started yet........ ohai, meteorologically speaking, we are on day #2 of Winter and you call yourself a wxweenie! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 One potential kick in the nads with this cold shot. It's possible that the orientation on the shot aligns itself such that any sort of low pressure along the coast forms well out at sea, and the only chance of precip is when the pattern becomes more zonal towards mid month. What I mean is that the trough is too positively tilted to fire up a low on the coast like some of the models try to do. A situation where you have the colder air, but no moisture. Yeah, I see what you mean Scott, Rather then neutral or negative Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 you should probably take a break from the board. This has been a difficult period for all of us. The pattern has clearly gotten to Scott. His posts are rambling pieces of nonsense. Time for a break... or a noose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 you should probably take a break from the board. Probably right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 One potential kick in the nads with this cold shot. It's possible that the orientation on the shot aligns itself such that any sort of low pressure along the coast forms well out at sea, and the only chance of precip is when the pattern becomes more zonal towards mid month. What I mean is that the trough is too positively tilted to fire up a low on the coast like some of the models try to do. A situation where you have the colder air, but no moisture. cold and dry, just the WX Ray loves. Snow making will be good, upslope and excellent 5H Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 This has been a difficult period for all of us. The pattern has clearly gotten to Scott. His posts are rambling pieces of nonsense. Time for a break... or a noose. LOL, thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 This has been a difficult period for all of us. The pattern has clearly gotten to Scott. His posts are rambling pieces of nonsense. Time for a break... or a noose. He fluctuates more than the GFS Our own little Crazy Uncle (jk... he's just telling what he sees) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 LOL, thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 ohai, meteorologically speaking, we are on day #2 of Winter and you call yourself a wxweenie! No, Thats true, But there are not many that experiance any real winter weather only being 2 days in, Basically for most, Its not until mid to the end of the month depending on location.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 He fluctuates more than the GFS Our own little Crazy Uncle (jk... he's just telling what he sees) I'm not fluctuating, I'm just bringing up something. You get that feeling today, but we are also really far out. It's just another question with this pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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