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December moving forward...pattern disco


weathafella

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2 things

1) Some posts that don't include the longer range looking crappy and torching for the holidays

2) Having my back in the OT threads instead of joining the southerners in the rump roast

I will say the new board looks awesome on the iphone. I was at the gym lifting and playing around with it and very impressed. Big improvement from before.

And as for number 1 who cares? As many have said and many have not wanted to believe the pattern gets "OK" for a period around D10 and then it has an ugly look beyond D15. Whether or not the ugly look comes to fruition is to be determined but I don't think anyone can look at last nights euro ensembles and get overly excited about anything.

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I will say the new board looks awesome on the iphone. I was at the gym lifting and playing around with it and very impressed. Big improvement from before.

And as for number 1 who cares? As many have said and many have not wanted to believe the pattern gets "OK" for a period around D10 and then it has an ugly look beyond D15. Whether or not the ugly look comes to fruition is to be determined but I don't think anyone can look at last nights euro ensembles and get overly excited about anything.

Reality is unwelcome here. Please talk snow, ice, impending pattern change that's always 15 days away blah blah.

I've never seen a time when WIll/Scott/Ryan/OSU/Brian/Phil are all saying almost exactly the same thing and yet there's still some discontent.

Weatherfella, I agree with DT but am not sold on the eventualy change. I'm 60/40 it goes back to crappy instead of a flip to colder but there's only a 20% change of that.

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Still awaiting that friend request acceptance. Tricky to find I know

Reality is unwelcome here. Please talk snow, ice, impending pattern change that's always 15 days away blah blah.

I've never seen a time when WIll/Scott/Ryan/OSU/Brian/Phil are all saying almost exactly the same thing and yet there's still some discontent.

Weatherfella, I agree with DT but am not sold on the eventualy change. I'm 60/40 it goes back to crappy instead of a flip to colder but there's only a 20% change of that.

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Yes def colder here...SE ridge is more beat down this run. I'm sure its going to change a bit back and forth. It does't drop so much energy into the SW post D6.

what do low-level/sfc temps look like over NYS at 96 hours? It looks kinda icy on Allen's site with the 1031 mb high to the north and some warmer 850mb temperatures.

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But it doesn't change the general imby tenor of 95% of your posts....

I mean, what else is there to talk about? +10 temps and how warm it'll get? If it was going to snow in northern Maine, at this point I'd bring it up due to the lack of wintry weather. I've lost the whole "whats it going to do in my place?" but I mean when there is nothing to talk about why not bring it up? Atleast its something in this miserable pattern.

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what do low-level/sfc temps look like over NYS at 96 hours? It looks kinda icy on Allen's site with the 1031 mb high to the north and some warmer 850mb temperatures.

Thank you for bring it up..I didn't want to bring it up again because I didn't want to be crucified again for bringing up some wintry weather for someone...

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Yes def colder here...SE ridge is more beat down this run. I'm sure its going to change a bit back and forth. It does't drop so much energy into the SW post D6.

Critical to keeping lower heights over the NE. The Alaskan Ridge is pushed further E over the Yukon lowering heights over the Northeast.

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what do low-level/sfc temps look like over NYS at 96 hours? It looks kinda icy on Allen's site with the 1031 mb high to the north and some warmer 850mb temperatures.

Its warm at the sfc...the 32F line remains N of the Canadian border. Winds at the sfc too southerly...the low is elongated up into NE NY...kind of the opposite of a CAD signal where we want to see the high pressure isobars nosing SW.

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Its warm at the sfc...the 32F line remains N of the Canadian border. Winds at the sfc too southerly...the low is elongated up into NE NY...kind of the opposite of a CAD signal where we want to see the high pressure isobars nosing SW.

hmm...okay. The winds on Wunderground are NNE...but the temps at the surface are way too warm. Need to see some more confluence to the NE for something more interesting I guess.

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Yes def colder here...SE ridge is more beat down this run. I'm sure its going to change a bit back and forth. It does't drop so much energy into the SW post D6.

Pretty big difference from 00z, I hope we are heading in the direction thats depicted with the 12z as it really beats down the ridge and brings the cold over towards the Northeast

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Euro much more impressive with the cold push through 168h compared to last few runs.

The overnight GFS ensemble derived teleconnector layout took the cold signal that I discussed yesterday and came in even more aggressive.

In fact, there is now a rising PNA progged beyond D7, in tandem with a sharply declining NAO - one that actually goes negative in every member by D10.

That's colder and sooner than many are thinking I suspect. Let's wait another night to really bite -

As an early caution: Trust me folks, with the cryosphere reflecting a cold momentum in the NH to date, any, ...and I mean any tendency for chill back will likely come in abruptly. There is snow from the Canadian border with the U.S. ...clear across the polar regions into southern Siberia at this point, with complete polar sea ice coverage intervening - we're really playing with matches and gas here in holding onto these warm anomalies; we're on the bubble. Think outside the boundary of that buggle. Anyone rolling their eyes at this ...your wrong. Period. sorry - gotta be blunt.

Also, there are subtle signs of a stratospheric warming in the models and whether directly related or not, does time with this new falling AO suggestion.

It's a complicated time.

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