weathafella Posted November 30, 2011 Author Share Posted November 30, 2011 Nothing very encouraging...D10 looks half decent, but nothing special. It beats the op GFS though...but quite a wide margin but as Ryan said...not hard to do.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 All those deaths, burnings, and throwing selevs down the stairs over the GFS for nothing. Euro FTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 So the Euro is mild, cools down later next week with a chance of a little mixing in far NNE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 That's from this morning..but Mon has always been warm Yeah, they kept in in their 1PM update unchanged... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 It beats the op GFS though...but quite a wide margin but as Ryan said...not hard to do.. Yes the GFS was worse, but the Euro overall is still fairly lousy, IMHO. We'll see what the ensembles say, but I'm not expecting much different. They recently have seemed to want to break down the AK ridge quite fast...last night's ensembles actually brough us nearly full circle and had a trough and low heights back over AK by the end of the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 All those deaths, burnings, and throwing selevs down the stairs over the GFS for nothing. Euro FTW I don't see the euro as any better really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 30, 2011 Author Share Posted November 30, 2011 Yes the GFS was worse, but the Euro overall is still fairly lousy, IMHO. We'll see what the ensembles say, but I'm not expecting much different. They recently have seemed to want to break down the AK ridge quite fast...last night's ensembles actually brough us nearly full circle and had a trough and low heights back over AK by the end of the run. Say over and over again.....1993, 1993, 1993. After 12/28 if we're still dead ratter, say....it feels good outside...it feels good outside.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 lol - When we're talking "mixed bag" for the northern portions, it's just not a good sign. Well, Its better because it was rain at 0z.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 From here on out until the Euro ens straighten themselves out..let's roll with the GFS ens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 Even if we had a combo of the EC ensembles and GEFS..it would offer the chance of a SWFE or two since it doesn't mutilate the ridge like the EC does. I hope that's a bias, because the EC ensembles have been ugly the past few runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 the part that bothers me is the pattern is just so boring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 the part that bothers me is the pattern is just so boring. Agreed. It's beyond boring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 The term i like to use for the pattern is It Blows.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Girl 22 Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 What does the 12Z Euro ensembles say? I'm new to finding the info. and learning a lot reading posts. Thanks. I guess the 12/6 threat is history in SNE then.? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 Well maybe the ECM is holding back too much energy next week ...closing off that low in TX.... If so maybe the front can sag a little further south and we get a gradient flow event that produces some snow on the nw flank. We only needed about another 50 miles here for some of that to be snow as the wave moves along to the south. Even if we had a combo of the EC ensembles and GEFS..it would offer the chance of a SWFE or two since it doesn't mutilate the ridge like the EC does. I hope that's a bias, because the EC ensembles have been ugly the past few runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 The model hugging has gotten out of hand. Suicides or euphoria. It will all work out. Don't worry, be happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 Now the euro ensembles are keeping heights higher in AK again...at least through hr 240. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 What does the 12Z Euro ensembles say? I'm new to finding the info. and learning a lot reading posts. Thanks. I guess the 12/6 threat is history in SNE then.? Not out yet... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Girl 22 Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 Weather Girl 22, on 30 November 2011 - 01:57 AM, said: I'm liking the Euro at 168 hours and beyond for that front/storm. It's further south and trend is better . Not sure why all the complaining earlier. This looks optimistic to me ORH_wxman said: It has a chance, but the pattern overall still looks pretty cruddy...we'll have some chances, but it doesn't mean we have to like the pattern....we often have chances of snow with a crappy pattern because of our latitude...but its like playing craps against loaded dice. Maybe we fair better than NYC or PHL...maybe 40-45% vs 15-20%, but it still stinks. From the other thread: I see what you mean, it's too mild at this point.. maybe NNE/CNE? and the day 10 threat is better at this juncture. . But that is way out there. I'm waiting for Ensembles to come out and be posted as I can't see them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Girl 22 Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 Not out yet... Okay, Thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 Now the euro ensembles are keeping heights higher in AK again...at least through hr 240. I think the waffling is due to the models struggling with Jerry's pattern change. Change begins 12/10, complete by 12/25. The low that just crashed into South Central AK will help shake things up. IMHO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 All those deaths, burnings, and throwing selevs down the stairs over the GFS for nothing. Euro FTW From here on out until the Euro ens straighten themselves out..let's roll with the GFS ens. You've lost me here Kevin... At least I have finals and tons of work to distract me from the torch for the next couple of weeks. After finals are done, it's game on! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 I think the waffling is due to the models struggling with Jerry's pattern change. Change begins 12/10, complete by 12/25. The low that just crashed into South Central AK will help shake things up. IMHO What you really want, is for AK to fry and have your long haired friend tell us how bad it is there. When that happens, we cash in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 What you really want, is for AK to fry and have your long haired friend tell us how bad it is there. When that happens, we cash in. oh like this WWAK81PAFC_AKZ101 ----------------- AKZ101-111-010100- ...MUCH WARMER WEATHER STILL ON ITS WAY... A SECONDARY LOW IN THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA YESTERDAY STRENGTHENED MORE THAN ANTICIPATED WHICH PUSHED THE MAJORITY OF THE WARM AIR TO THE EAST OF ANCHORAGE. IT ALSO KEPT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKER OVER THE ANCHORAGE AREA WHICH PREVENTED THE WARM CHINOOK WINDS FROM DEVELOPING. MORNING TEMPERATURES IN THE ANCHORAGE BOWL TODAY HAVE BEEN IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S. TEMPERATURES RISE RAPIDLY WITH ELEVATION AND ALSO ALONG TURNAGAIN WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN ABOVE FREEZING IN THESE AREAS. IN SPITE OF THIS FIRST WARM PUSH NOT PACKING AS MUCH PUNCH...THE STRONGER WARM UP IS STILL TO COME BY THE WEEKEND. A MIXED BAG OF PRECIPITATION TYPES IS LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS INCLUDES THE POSSIBILITY OF FREEZING RAIN. THE STRONGEST PUSH OF WARM AIR WILL ARRIVE IN FULL BY SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING STRONG CHINOOK WINDS WITH RAIN. THEREFORE LOOK FOR A WARM, WET, AND WINDY WEEKEND. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 What you really want, is for AK to fry and have your long haired friend tell us how bad it is there. When that happens, we cash in. It's already changed up there. I always look at Fairbanks highs and lows. They've gone from -30 and lower to well abobe zero. So there has been a change up there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 It's already changed up there. I always look at Fairbanks highs and lows. They've gone from -30 and lower to well abobe zero. So there has been a change up there They'll always be changes for sure, but I mean more prolonged change...so much so that his friend complains that skiing sucks there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 oh like this WWAK81PAFC_AKZ101 ----------------- AKZ101-111-010100- ...MUCH WARMER WEATHER STILL ON ITS WAY... A SECONDARY LOW IN THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA YESTERDAY STRENGTHENED MORE THAN ANTICIPATED WHICH PUSHED THE MAJORITY OF THE WARM AIR TO THE EAST OF ANCHORAGE. IT ALSO KEPT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKER OVER THE ANCHORAGE AREA WHICH PREVENTED THE WARM CHINOOK WINDS FROM DEVELOPING. MORNING TEMPERATURES IN THE ANCHORAGE BOWL TODAY HAVE BEEN IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S. TEMPERATURES RISE RAPIDLY WITH ELEVATION AND ALSO ALONG TURNAGAIN WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN ABOVE FREEZING IN THESE AREAS. IN SPITE OF THIS FIRST WARM PUSH NOT PACKING AS MUCH PUNCH...THE STRONGER WARM UP IS STILL TO COME BY THE WEEKEND. A MIXED BAG OF PRECIPITATION TYPES IS LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS INCLUDES THE POSSIBILITY OF FREEZING RAIN. THE STRONGEST PUSH OF WARM AIR WILL ARRIVE IN FULL BY SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING STRONG CHINOOK WINDS WITH RAIN. THEREFORE LOOK FOR A WARM, WET, AND WINDY WEEKEND. About 10 days to effect us here, Or is it transient....lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 Well the ensembles finished a little cooler over the northeast compared to 00z, but they still lower heights in AK, so it might not mean much in the way of good things beyond mid month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 They'll always be changes for sure, but I mean more prolonged change...so much so that his friend complains that skiing sucks there. Even in the tourchiest of winters the Talkeetna MTns get hammered, probably more so in those conditions. Land of never ending snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 I just don't like that trough in AK with zonal flow into Canada. At least it has a threat for an overrunning deal possibly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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