Tropopause_Fold Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 i really wish there weren't an atmospheric freeway extending from PEI to England right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 The 12Z GFS is resolutely refusing to bite on the 0Z ECM idea on driving the next cold shot (the post 144 hrs) so far southwest and setting up the gradient, etc..... It gets at or below normal for awhile in the Northeast on the GFS, but any bitter air locked up in Canada with that vortex in northern HB region. The 00z Euro ensembles in the long range past about D12 or 13 look kind of like an electrical bath pattern. Most of the CONUS is above avg. Hopefully its breaking down the western ridging too quickly. I'm with Scooter that the D9-10 time frame def has potential for some type of winter threat...we'll just hope it doesn't get too amped up into a cutter. But that time period has been on the radar for awhile looking at the general pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 The GFS bomb at Hr 384 is back..........lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 The 12Z GFS is resolutely refusing to bite on the 0Z ECM idea on driving the next cold shot (the post 144 hrs) so far southwest and setting up the gradient, etc..... It gets at or below normal for awhile in the Northeast on the GFS, but any bitter air locked up in Canada with that vortex in northern HB region. I don't think we'll get any bitter air. With any luck, we can get enough cold seepage south. That atmospheric highway the Phil speaks of, courtesy of the se ridge, could help us out with something of a more coastal type low...or could easily flex and send everything west. You could get the sense of something around hr 180 trying to get going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 The 00z Euro ensembles in the long range past about D12 or 13 look kind of like an electrical bath pattern. Most of the CONUS is above avg. Hopefully its breaking down the western ridging too quickly. I'm with Scooter that the D9-10 time frame def has potential for some type of winter threat...we'll just hope it doesn't get too amped up into a cutter. But that time period has been on the radar for awhile looking at the general pattern. Good post I agree with this 100%. I think we may get lucky around D10 but if the storm track is too far NW we're toast. I think the growing consensus is we may have to get concerned again about the ugly pattern reloading past D15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 Actually, looking at the temps at 2m and 850...theres a pretty good set up for ice in northern VT on the gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 The 12Z GFS is resolutely refusing to bite on the 0Z ECM idea on driving the next cold shot (the post 144 hrs) so far southwest and setting up the gradient, etc..... It gets at or below normal for awhile in the Northeast on the GFS, but any bitter air locked up in Canada with that vortex in northern HB region. But if you look at certain periods, say 180 hours on the 12z vs 192 last night the "plunge" of cold air into NE is muted and it's more directed towards Chicago. The western edge is also blunted too. Instead of being a more broad area, it's got a deeper bend to it and later an associated system develops well ENE of us. I'll ride the Euro. The GFS being too cold isn't a shocker even though the "new" GFS only has one year under its belt I'm not going to be surprised if in this pattern it has a persistent cold bias. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 2, 2011 Author Share Posted December 2, 2011 Actually, looking at the temps at 2m and 850...theres a pretty good set up for ice in northern VT on the gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 hopefully thu-sat of next week we can finally string together consecutive normal or slightly below temps....though could easily still be +1 to +4 type of stuff. edit: for that matter, they way we've seen the ridging want to fight...lets get 1 below day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 hopefully thu-sat of next week we can finally string together consecutive normal or slightly below temps....though could easily still be +1 to +4 type of stuff. edit: for that matter, they way we've seen the ridging want to fight...lets get 1 below day. Now I see you've come to your senses. It's seasonable today, a good start and hopefully we can build on this in the days and weeks ahead. I hope to see a serious cold shot on the Euro over the next day or two that hits us. The GFS has been really bad in this pattern and I just can't believe any of it until it actually has identifiably rebounded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 i'm realizing how tired i am of talking about this weather pattern. we're going on 4 weeks now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 Join the fun in my OT topic. I wish I could. Lol. BTW Anything east of the Ct. River is the coastal plain. Interior stars just west of 91. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 GEFS didn't change all that much except to bring up heights out west and in the GOA. The EC ensembles also tried to do this in the final 24 hours, but not before knocking down that GOA ridge and allowing for a more unfavorable regime near mid month. It's still very unclear what will happen around mid month, but I's take a compromise for sure. If I had to guess..we may be seeing a little too much bias with each model. It still a little too close for comfort with the se ridge, but we'll have to deal. Hoping we can get something in the 8-10 day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 i'm realizing how tired i am of talking about this weather pattern. we're going on 4 weeks now. I am as well, but I still do...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 It was talked about last night... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 I wish I could. Lol. BTW Anything east of the Ct. River is the coastal plain. Interior stars just west of 91. Don't quit your day job and become a met. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 hopefully thu-sat of next week we can finally string together consecutive normal or slightly below temps....though could easily still be +1 to +4 type of stuff. edit: for that matter, they way we've seen the ridging want to fight...lets get 1 below day. It looks like one of those patterns where PHL is +10, BDL/BOS is avg and BTV is -10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 I am as well, but I still do...lol. oh i know...same here. i'm tired of the warm air, but i think even more tired of going 7 days between meaningful weather systems. it's an absolute snooze-fest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 It's better than Gibbs and Ryan discussing snowless Decembers ad nauseum I am as well, but I still do...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 Don't quit your day job and become a met. I especially love when he reminds us that he is in the interior "high" terrain. Not just interior...but high terrain. I'm glad that is cleared up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 i'm realizing how tired i am of talking about this weather pattern. we're going on 4 weeks now. A few days ago I mentioned that it was brutal to have nothing to track. At least there are a few opportunities now showing up so the worst is behind us presumably. I don't see any signs we're going back into the pattern we are just exiting now. As Scott is saying probably a compromise between what we'd really like to have and what we're just exiting. Beats a stick in the eye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 It looks like one of those patterns where PHL is +10, BDL/BOS is avg and BTV is -10 i'll take average over what we've seen/are seeing. the way the GFS dumps the cold down into the conus, it holds onto the WSW flow through all levels. that's such a craptastic way to get cold into new england, especially given lack of snow cover to our west and time of year. that looks like one of those deals where it's actually well below normal out by the lakes but we're still in the middle 40s without much trouble. i guess beggars can't be choosers at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 Don't quit your day job and become a met. LOL. My forecasts would be awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 Nah ...actually the coastal plain is anything east of the Helderberg Escarpment. I wish I could. Lol. BTW Anything east of the Ct. River is the coastal plain. Interior stars just west of 91. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 i'll take average over what we've seen/are seeing. the way the GFS dumps the cold down into the conus, it holds onto the WSW flow through all levels. that's such a craptastic way to get cold into new england, especially given lack of snow cover to our west and time of year. that looks like one of those deals where it's actually well below normal out by the lakes but we're still in the middle 40s without much trouble. i guess beggars can't be choosers at this point. I'm hoping that high in the middle of the country has some staying power. At least the flow is nw at the surface which should help to cool us off, but I know what you mean. You don't want the cold air to hit a wall near the Lakes and deflect to the north. I guess if anything...there may be a gradient nearby and associated storm track, so that's a plus. I'm still semi optimistic for something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 2, 2011 Author Share Posted December 2, 2011 It was talked about last night... But it doesn't change the general imby tenor of 95% of your posts.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 I especially love when he reminds us that he is in the interior "high" terrain. Not just interior...but high terrain. I'm glad that is cleared up. Massachusetts Alps. DT did his update last night for those that haven't read it http://www.wxrisk.com/2011/12/was-it-over-when-the-germans-bombed-peral-harbor/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 i'll take average over what we've seen/are seeing. the way the GFS dumps the cold down into the conus, it holds onto the WSW flow through all levels. that's such a craptastic way to get cold into new england, especially given lack of snow cover to our west and time of year. that looks like one of those deals where it's actually well below normal out by the lakes but we're still in the middle 40s without much trouble. i guess beggars can't be choosers at this point. Yes. The much heralded pattern change will bring in average at best wx over a 5 day period (hopefully a snow event too) and then unfortunately it looks like we could set up for a reload of the older crappier pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 I'm hoping that high in the middle of the country has some staying power. At least the flow is nw at the surface which should help to cool us off, but I know what you mean. You don't want the cold air to hit a wall near the Lakes and deflect to the north. I guess if anything...there may be a gradient nearby and associated storm track, so that's a plus. I'm still semi optimistic for something. anything is better than 54F and sunny at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 Yes. The much heralded pattern change will bring in average at best wx over a 5 day period (hopefully a snow event too) and then unfortunately it looks like we could set up for a reload of the older crappier pattern. Just incessant Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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