NorEastermass128 Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 Encouraging to see some improvements on the GFS tonight. Hopefully we can get a string of good runs over the next couple of days and then something is bound to pop up for us to track. PS - I like the new format! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 You have to be feeling good about your chances up that way..Pike on north. Especially given what you said about the models underestimating the cold from a -EPO. Down this way it could be a little more iffy as to which side of the gradient we're on. I'm game for a icestorm though. Eh, I feel so-so. I'm still worried this SE ridge gets too tilted to the N...but hopefully the -EPO comes through for us. I'd like to see the lower heights press a little further into SE Canada than we've been seeing. That can be the difference between us barely cashing in nicely on a gradient pattern and getting screwed completely...even pretty far into NNE. The further north, the better for sure though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 where is the SE ridge on the GFS ensembles?...it's hardly even there anymore lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 Canadian is into the freezer too http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/CMC_0z/f204.gif http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/CMC_0z/f240.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 2, 2011 Author Share Posted December 2, 2011 Looks like the Euro is heading the same way. Rapid shift in th guidance from 12Z to 0Z. Hope it holds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 There were a lot of conflicting signals... Maybe things have reached a tipping point in guidance and they will all jump on board. Looks like the Euro is heading the same way. Rapid shift in th guidance from 12Z to 0Z. Hope it holds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 2, 2011 Author Share Posted December 2, 2011 It looks like the GFS jumped the gun and the Euro's solution is not the straight on plunge but a classic gradient. I know who my money's on... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 2, 2011 Author Share Posted December 2, 2011 Euros always a good reality check in either side of the guidance. I thought the cutoff developing NE of HI by the end of the run was a good sign which could help keep more ridging in AK. Nothing great on the euro, cool, cold, rain, showers, cool..etc. However as Will and others have noted the cold part of these patterns is frequently underdone. I'm not sure I'd bet on that in this regime.. And the end of the run offers some signs that we'd at least be somewhat normal in the big picture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 I only looked at the Euro to H180 on the weather undergound maps.... But I noted that the Euro is dumping a lot of energy into the far Southwest while the GFS and GGEM much less. This could go to the ECM bias there.... In the 84-120 hour period I'd probably side more with the Euro. Euros always a good reality check in either side of the guidance. I thought the cutoff developing NE of HI by the end of the run was a good sign which could help keep more ridging in AK. Nothing great on the euro, cool, cold, rain, showers, cool..etc. However as Will and others have noted the cold part of these patterns is frequently underdone. I'm not sure I'd bet on that in this regime.. And the end of the run offers some signs that we'd at least be somewhat normal in the big picture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 Things continue to slowly improve in the modelworld this morning. Looks like a decent setup for wintry precip events as we move past the 10th. Tossing all op GFS runs as we should. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 Well euro ensembles still suggest the same. They are not bullish like the GEFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 I think models maybe giving the se ridge a little too much credit, while its damn impressive so is the gathering cold in Canada, perhaps some surprises mid month, actually pretty encouraging this morning. I wonder if we start to see some real threats showing up on models by Sunday or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 Models are having a tough time with this pattern, Changes every run, At least the GFS anyways which is pretty useless, Have to go with the Euro until proven wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 Models are having a tough time with this pattern, Changes every run, At least the GFS anyways which is pretty useless, Have to go with the Euro until proven wrong I don't think the GFS is as bad as people are saying in the 6-10 day. I don't see the euro op as much better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 Euro ensembles suggest either a long duration or dual event between hr 192 and hr 240. I can tell by the precip probs it is spitting out. Too early to say what right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 I don't think the GFS is as bad as people are saying in the 6-10 day. I don't see the euro op as much better. I really don't take what the models output is after day 7 with much credibility anyway, I will look at the ensembles going forward from there, Pretty stark differences with the GFS and the Euro from 1-6 days though, I would have to side with the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 Well euro ensembles still suggest the same. They are not bullish like the GEFS. Are they manageable though? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 I think models maybe giving the se ridge a little too much credit Usually - USUALLY - the models are too quick to break down the SE ridge beyond Day 5, not too strong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 Donny baseball on board I agree. There might be an opportunity for some frozen precipitation in the Dec. 10-15 +/- a few days timeframe. Hopefully, that opportunity will be realized. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 Euro ensembles suggest either a long duration or dual event between hr 192 and hr 240. I can tell by the precip probs it is spitting out. Too early to say what right now. There's our crippling icestorm we've been after Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 Are they manageable though? Yeah they are for the most part, but remember it is an ensemble mean, so you won't be able to tell if we get colder storms or cutters. Mid month may get mild again, but it's early to get specific with details. That threat I mentioned a post back looks like it's on the table for something wintry so that might be our first trackable event. However, it could also be a mix to rain as well. I think this threat has some legs to it, but you can't hype it up yet at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 Things really looking up today, very encouraged, like Will and Scooter were discussing yesterday, the vodka cold in Canada could only be a good thing, but this pattern will break hearts some will dance in dendrties while others rant in raindrops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 Things really looking up today, very encouraged, like Will and Scooter were discussing yesterday, the vodka cold in Canada could only be a good thing, but this pattern will break hearts some will dance in dendrties while others rant in raindrops. I don't things have changed all that much. We're still in that time frame where we don't exactly know what will transpire and mid month could revert back to a crappier pattern temporarily. I guess I'm semi-optimistic about this next threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 I am optimistic for the next threat Scooter, at least perhaps something to track, one week at a time, one threat at a time, I think wild extremes will be unavoidable in this pattern. I dont see anything that screams sustained cold but some is better than none, and hopefully we can time things right for the holidays. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 I am optimistic for the next threat Scooter, at least perhaps something to track, one week at a time, one threat at a time, I think wild extremes will be unavoidable in this pattern. I dont see anything that screams sustained cold but some is better than none, and hopefully we can time things right for the holidays. If I lived in the interior and NNE I would have higher hopes too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 Maybe if we play our cards right, we can get more of a cstl low as there are signs it could happen, but I would play it safe and just hope for some sort of SWFE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 Maybe if we play our cards right, we can get more of a cstl low as there are signs it could happen, but I would play it safe and just hope for some sort of SWFE. Classic Scooter caution. I like that it's become more interesting and in true MRG fashion I will say that big big winter is incoming and surprises may be imminent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 I don't things have changed all that much. We're still in that time frame where we don't exactly know what will transpire and mid month could revert back to a crappier pattern temporarily. I guess I'm semi-optimistic about this next threat. When does the data on the stratosphere come out? We have had at least a couple days of it warming. Hopefully it can continue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 When does the data on the stratosphere come out? We have had at least a couple days of it warming. Hopefully it can continue It comes out every model cycle. Right now, it's very minor and has a lot of work to do, but I'm keeping an eye on it to see how it transpires. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 Yeah they are for the most part, but remember it is an ensemble mean, so you won't be able to tell if we get colder storms or cutters. Mid month may get mild again, but it's early to get specific with details. That threat I mentioned a post back looks like it's on the table for something wintry so that might be our first trackable event. However, it could also be a mix to rain as well. I think this threat has some legs to it, but you can't hype it up yet at all. "Mixes to rain" count as wintry, too in my book. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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