CoastalWx Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 SSTs still in the mid 50s south of SNE. Powderkeg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 That is one hell of a long duration, light overrunning event for N Vt! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 Powderfreak just fainted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 GFS at least brings the cold in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 GFS at least brings the cold in. Yeah, albeit the pattern vis-a-vis storminess couldn't be any more boring... zzzzzzz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 2, 2011 Author Share Posted December 2, 2011 Thie GFS did a180 from 12 ro 18Z and now continues the theme of cold after we get fropa later next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 SSTs still in the mid 50s south of SNE. Powderkeg. If we had a good pattern with the AO/EPO and some blocking, there would be some serious sh** going down with those ocean temperatures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 Yeah, albeit the pattern vis-a-vis storminess couldn't be any more boring... zzzzzzz Well that's step 1 anyways. At this point, I want to see that first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 If we had a good pattern with the AO/EPO and some blocking, there would be some serious sh** going down with those ocean temperatures. I had stratocu to my east today with temps in the 40s...lol. What does that tell you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 2, 2011 Author Share Posted December 2, 2011 So the pattern change begins 12/10 after all.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 Well that's step 1 anyways. At this point, I want to see that first. Big start, with minimum changes that's an 08 type low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 So the pattern change begins 12/10 after all.... Eh, I'm not convinced yet Jerry. Moderate MJO impulse though 4-5 and the stratosphere remains very cold. I think the PV remains over the Davis Straight & Greenland until 12/15-12/20 and we may see SE Ridge impulses until then if the Pacific is anything short of great. By Christmas we should have some signs of blocking coming back on guidance. If not, we may be in trouble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 Heavy heavy SSTs to my east. This is why I need my HP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 Weenie run but hey..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 2, 2011 Author Share Posted December 2, 2011 Eh, I'm not convinced yet Jerry. Moderate MJO impulse though 4-5 and the stratosphere remains very cold. I think the PV remains over the Davis Straight & Greenland until 12/15-12/20 and we may see SE Ridge impulses until then if the Pacific is anything short of great. By Christmas we should have some signs of blocking coming back on guidance. If not, we may be in trouble. Just spent the last few minutes wiping your flying birds off of my iPad. I think the EPO dump duration is the key. That's how other very warm starts were saved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 Just spent the last few minutes wiping your flying birds off of my iPad. I think the EPO dump duration is the key. That's how other very warm starts were saved. Lol!! The snow birds will bring the goods eventually. The EPO is a major player for sure. We will know a lot more two weeks from now in regards to where we are going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 Lol!! The snow birds will bring the goods eventually. The EPO is a major player for sure. We will know a lot more two weeks from now in regards to where we are going. Did you see the paper from HA about 12/26/10?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 Did you see the paper from HA about 12/26/10?? Sorry, I mean from SUNY Albany? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 Did you see the paper from HA about 12/26/10?? Nope, haven't seen it yet. Link me up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 Nope, haven't seen it yet. Link me up. https://www.google.com/#sclient=psy-ab&hl=en&site=&source=hp&q=Analysis+of+Banding+in+26-27+December+2010+East+Coast+Blizzard&pbx=1&oq=Analysis+of+Banding+in+26-27+December+2010+East+Coast+Blizzard&aq=f&aqi=&aql=&gs_sm=e&gs_upl=2242l2242l0l2327l1l0l0l0l0l0l0l0ll0l0&bav=on.2,or.r_gc.r_pw.,cf.osb&fp=5fef1c2b59861573&biw=1600&bih=775 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 There is a ridge bridge from the GOA into ne Siberia on the GEFS. Cold has no where to go, but south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 2, 2011 Author Share Posted December 2, 2011 There is a ridge bridge from the GOA into ne Siberia on the GEFS. Cold has no where to go, but south. The guidance is improving again... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 The guidance is improving again... GEFS just went into the icebox. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 The guidance is improving again... GFS giveth and taketh. I'm sure 06z will have the SE ridge in full force. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 36 hours on the 850 0C line ...or maybe 10 miles west of it. ..But a lot better than earlier runs. Then the GFS showers the love on us right through 360 hours! That is one hell of a long duration, light overrunning event for N Vt! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 2, 2011 Author Share Posted December 2, 2011 Well friends, tonight's ensembles and op run says the pattern change begins...12/10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 GEFS try to flatten the ridge in the GOA, but then in the last minute pump up heights just a hair. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 GEFS try to flatten the ridge in the GOA, but then in the last minute pump up heights just a hair. The little nudge of ridging from the North Atlantic towards Greenland got me excited from 340 - 384 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 Well the increase in cold from the -EPO is a good sign...we'll need that to be on the right side of the gradient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 Well the increase in cold from the -EPO is a good sign...we'll need that to be on the right side of the gradient. You have to be feeling good about your chances up that way..Pike on north. Especially given what you said about the models underestimating the cold from a -EPO. Down this way it could be a little more iffy as to which side of the gradient we're on. I'm game for a icestorm though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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