CT Rain Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 Take what we can get month. It could be worse, that's for sure. Hopefully that cold dump has some legs as it moves east. There should be storms riding along that boundary for sure, obviously we know what the risks our if the trough out west gets too strong. Yeah it's December. Like you've posted many times we've been spoiled with our Decembers recently.... I've gone through many horrible Decembers only to have things pick up decently after Christmas. If we start seeing the storm track set up to our NW around Dec 15 and see strong signs of the +EPO coming back then I'll start to worry a bit more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 From Ryan Maue's site.... another reason why the 18z GFS is likely far too cold. Call me confused if you want but the 18 Z GFS is showing a mainly positive AO and has been for quite some time now. So if the operational run is showing colder weather on the horizon and the AO is positive..then that must mean that there is another reason that the cold air is shown on an increase to the region.. Lets see you have the GGEM ensembles showing a gradient pattern setting up with a colder over all look from about the 9th on... You have the GFS ensembles showing a gradient pattern setting up with a colder over all look from about the 9th on.. You have the ECM ensembles showing the same type of look as above..... And what do all these ensemble means have in common that is making them all colder over all (colder as in compared to november so call it seasonal for the sake of argument).... There has to be something that is being over looked by mets here and i think if Gibbs ( can't remember his exact name but was a pro met at eastern) I think he would say its the power of the negative EPO! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 amen. I think you should be in a decent spot there...there's a few solutions we've seen that stunk even that far north, but I'd feel pretty good there. Down here, we'll be worrying about latitude issues perhaps. We'll just have to wait and see how good this cold push is and how the models handle this EPO cold dump...if past performance is any indication, they don't tend to handle it all that well. So we are kind of in a wait and see mode WRT the cold even though we have a general idea of the pattern. The difference will be in the details. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 Yeah it's December. Like you've posted many times we've been spoiled with our Decembers recently.... I've gone through many horrible Decembers only to have things pick up decently after Christmas. If we start seeing the storm track set up to our NW around Dec 15 and see strong signs of the +EPO coming back then I'll start to worry a bit more. It's just been so boring lately. Not even a crappy clipper system ending as some flakes, type deal. Just complete boredom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 Yeah it's December. Like you've posted many times we've been spoiled with our Decembers recently.... I've gone through many horrible Decembers only to have things pick up decently after Christmas. If we start seeing the storm track set up to our NW around Dec 15 and see strong signs of the +EPO coming back then I'll start to worry a bit more. LOL hmmmmm... whens the last time we saw that? CoastalWx said "It's just been so boring lately. Not even a crappy clipper system ending as some flakes, type deal. Just complete boredom." lately? its really been boring since I'd say The tulip trouncer.... We've had 3 major events spread out two months apart, with absolute boredom in between.... June 1 2 month Boringness Irene 2 month monotony Halloweenie 1 month of hell, probably about to be 2 months SREFs come out in 5 minutes... can't wait! SkiMRG said " No snow for you this Winter. It's a done deal. You should take some time off. Maybe take up stamp collecting." Lol... If I'm not getting snow, you're not getting snow seeing I have latitude and longitude on you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 It's just been so boring lately. Not even a crappy clipper system ending as some flakes, type deal. Just complete boredom. By 12/25 Kevin will start getting excited about a screaming sou'easter cutting up near Buffalo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 They are on Allan's weather page right here thanks for the tip Ginxy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 BTW - Kevin was expecting 1-2" tomorrow. Enjoy!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 It's just been so boring lately. Not even a crappy clipper system ending as some flakes, type deal. Just complete boredom. Old proverb/curse: May you live in interesting times Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 BTW - Kevin was expecting 1-2" tomorrow. Enjoy!!!! Minor WINDEx cancel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 I think you should be in a decent spot there...there's a few solutions we've seen that stunk even that far north, but I'd feel pretty good there. Down here, we'll be worrying about latitude issues perhaps. We'll just have to wait and see how good this cold push is and how the models handle this EPO cold dump...if past performance is any indication, they don't tend to handle it all that well. So we are kind of in a wait and see mode WRT the cold even though we have a general idea of the pattern. The difference will be in the details. we'll see. the euro 12z run really threw me for a loop, but i just have to remind myself its one run of the op. but its trends would not be surprsing to me. we need the NAO to do something, even if its not tank.....just a little would go a long way with that huge SE ridge. hopefully you are rigfht about the EPO being underdone. ive definitely been disappointed so far by the 2 modeled cold pushes into S quebec which havent really materialized to date. thats alarming, though u r right, an EPO may go a long way in helping that situation. but we've had warm crap winters here too......its not like we are immune. usually right about the same time you guys get them too lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 LOL hmmmmm... whens the last time we saw that? CoastalWx said "It's just been so boring lately. Not even a crappy clipper system ending as some flakes, type deal. Just complete boredom." lately? its really been boring since I'd say The tulip trouncer.... We've had 3 major events spread out two months apart, with absolute boredom in between.... June 1 2 month Boringness Irene 2 month monotony Halloweenie 1 month of hell, probably about to be 2 months SREFs come out in 5 minutes... can't wait! No snow for you this Winter. It's a done deal. You should take some time off. Maybe take up stamp collecting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 LOL hmmmmm... whens the last time we saw that? CoastalWx said "It's just been so boring lately. Not even a crappy clipper system ending as some flakes, type deal. Just complete boredom." lately? its really been boring since I'd say The tulip trouncer.... We've had 3 major events spread out two months apart, with absolute boredom in between.... June 1 2 month Boringness Irene 2 month monotony Halloweenie 1 month of hell, probably about to be 2 months SREFs come out in 5 minutes... can't wait! A hurricane and KU event in October are extremely rare here.......i look at it like the non-winter months were fairly exciting around the northeast. We normally dont see anything exciting at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 BTW - Kevin was expecting 1-2" tomorrow. Enjoy!!!! Wouldn't you love to let Kev be an on air weenie for a month.lol Villagers with pitchforks and torches marching up Mt.Tolland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 thanks for the link if i'm reading this correctly, then the NAO in december 2007 was 0.34 thats a big difference from where it is now, and goes along with my suspicions.... Yes, of course those are the CPC values though. There is supposedly another NAO index calculation that is more weighted than that, I personally do not know where or if it is available online. But I recently read an AMS paper regarding the 1994-95 and 1995-96 winters and they mention the NAO index averaged -3.40 and +3.30 or so in those winters which is nothing close to the CPC numbers so there must be another calculation done elsewhere. As a matter of fact, according to their calculations, at least as of 2001 those were the highest and lowest respective winter NAO values since 1900, obviously last winter probably beat the 1995-96 one though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 Call me confused if you want but the 18 Z GFS is showing a mainly positive AO and has been for quite some time now. So if the operational run is showing colder weather on the horizon and the AO is positive..then that must mean that there is another reason that the cold air is shown on an increase to the region.. Lets see you have the GGEM ensembles showing a gradient pattern setting up with a colder over all look from about the 9th on... You have the GFS ensembles showing a gradient pattern setting up with a colder over all look from about the 9th on.. You have the ECM ensembles showing the same type of look as above..... And what do all these ensemble means have in common that is making them all colder over all (colder as in compared to november so call it seasonal for the sake of argument).... There has to be something that is being over looked by mets here and i think if Gibbs ( can't remember his exact name but was a pro met at eastern) I think he would say its the power of the negative EPO! A lot of people are talking about the NAO and AO but not the EPO. The EPO is just as important as the NAO and AO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 A lot of people are talking about the NAO and AO but not the EPO. The EPO is just as important as the NAO and AO. 1993-94 and 2002-03 showed that, the NAO was very positive in 1993-94 and spent a good portion of 2002-03 after December in the positive phase, but both years were aided by a -AO, the AO was generally slightly negative in 1993-94 and raging negative in 2002-03. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 1993-94 and 2002-03 showed that, the NAO was very positive in 1993-94 and spent a good portion of 2002-03 after December in the positive phase, but both years were aided by a -AO, the AO was generally slightly negative in 1993-94 and raging negative in 2002-03. Looks to me like January of 1994 was a + AO Yet do your remember how the month of January turned out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 Nothing to click on the bottom of the page to change the skin..... . ugh! good thing they did this during a crappy pattern LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 Naturally while this is occurring..the gfs has a long duration snow event for northern New England.. particularly VT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 Well I can't see half of the posts, lol. Gotta wait until the switch for turning off the subscription filer is back...eek is working on it now. GFS is actually good for NNE next week, lol. Not sure I buy it, but obviously that would be a better solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 Well I can't see half of the posts, lol. Gotta wait until the switch for turning off the subscription filer is back...eek is working on it now. GFS is actually good for NNE next week, lol. Not sure I buy it, but obviously that would be a better solution. You thinking ice storm like me? Looks classic verbatim GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 Well I can't see half of the posts, lol. Gotta wait until the switch for turning off the subscription filer is back...eek is working on it now. GFS is actually good for NNE next week, lol. Not sure I buy it, but obviously that would be a better solution. I had the skin setting at the bottom of the page and switched to another that i don't like but now its gone for me to change to something else... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 I had the skin setting at the bottom of the page and switched to another that i don't like but now its gone for me to change to something else... Hitt the back button on your browser until you get back to where you changed it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 You thinking ice storm like me? Looks classic verbatim GFS For where? S VT/NH? 850 is cold enough in most of central and northern VT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 What's the gfs doing at156? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 You thinking ice storm like me? Looks classic verbatim GFS GFS def would be a little bit of concern for some ice, particularly in a narrow band just south of the snow...but the airmass isn't overly cold. You'd like to see the high a little stronger. GFS is a bad model to use anyway for shallow cold air drainage. You never know though...sometimes these things sneak up on you as they get closer...like 12/11-12/08 did..the sfc didn't look that impressively cold until about 3 days out. This is even assuming we got a setup like that...still could be a lake cutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 Hitt the back button on your browser until you get back to where you changed it. No good....boo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 seems better now...both gfs and board Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 Sneaky low on that GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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