ski MRG Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 I'm hoping the wetstorm 12/6 can roll itself up enough to clog up the flow. I think if we get a monster out of that in the martimes we see the changes weatherfella has been dreaming about since June. I'm shocked. You disagree? I'm shocked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 December is probably not going to be an extremely wintry and cold month. It may be one of those "take what you can get" months, meaning that the overall pattern isn't very wintry, but may offer a few chances. Maybe it ends up better, but that is how I'm approaching it right now. At least it doesn't look like a total train wreck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 18z GEFS are still quite cold for us in a well defined gradient pattern past D9. The temp gradient is pretty impressive for that far out on an ensemble mean. It definitely looks like we'd have some chances based on that. Euro ensembles are a bit more precarious though not horrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 Is the concern that we never see cold, or lack of storminess, or both? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 Is the concern that we never see cold, or lack of storminess, or both? The concern is the latitude of the cold...how far south can the deeper cold get. We'll want a good enough push so we can withstand WAA in a SWFE. I think the storms will be there...they frequently are in gradient patterns. Get a strong thermal gradient and storminess will happen. The concern is the gradient gets too tilted and we end up on the bad side of it. I'm hoping the -EPO gives a strong enough push of the cold...it often does, but nothing is guaranteed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 The concern is the latitude of the cold...how far south can the deeper cold get. We'll want a good enough push so we can withstand WAA in a SWFE. I think the storms will be there...they frequently are in gradient patterns. Get a strong thermal gradient and storminess will happen. The concern is the gradient gets too tilted and we end up on the bad side of it. I'm hoping the -EPO gives a strong enough push of the cold...it often does, but nothing is guaranteed. I'd take the 18z GEFS in a heartbeat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 You disagree? I'm shocked. So when does it snow again in Boston Pete? Accumulating snows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 I'd take the 18z GEFS in a heartbeat. We all would Something is wrong there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 December is probably not going to be an extremely wintry and cold month. It may be one of those "take what you can get" months, meaning that the overall pattern isn't very wintry, but may offer a few chances. Maybe it ends up better, but that is how I'm approaching it right now. At least it doesn't look like a total train wreck. Judging by some of the posts today you'd think the entire month was going be above normal with no snow..Sure glad we don't live in the midatlantic or anywhere near DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 Judging by some of the posts today you'd think the entire month was going be above normal with no snow..Sure glad we don't live in the midatlantic or anywhere near DC We certainly do run the risk of getting screwed in this pattern...but hopefully we don't. The further south you go though, the pattern does become just brutal for any type of winter wx threat. Again, we want to see this -EPO give us a solid push of cold air that can try and establish itself over us and SE Canada for a time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 So when does it snow again in Boston Pete? Accumulating snows Well, Boston is of little concern to me. Frankly, other than the fact that I like Jerry, Scott and the rest of the eastern gang, I would be perfectly happy to see them have a Winter of mixed events as long as I cashed in here in the distant, elevated interior. That said, I think it's reasonable to expect they'll see some snow by mid month. I'm selfishly only concerned with my area and points North. I'm optimistic that I'll be the benificiary of multiple low end warning events with perhaps a few Bombs thrown in for good measure in the second half. I think that cold is the real deal and I also think it will make it's presence felt in the GL/NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 Judging by some of the posts today you'd think the entire month was going be above normal with no snow..Sure glad we don't live in the midatlantic or anywhere near DC Or CT. can you imagine!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ScituateWX Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 December is probably not going to be an extremely wintry and cold month. It may be one of those "take what you can get" months, meaning that the overall pattern isn't very wintry, but may offer a few chances. Maybe it ends up better, but that is how I'm approaching it right now. At least it doesn't look like a total train wreck. I think you just hit it right on! You had mentioned it a while back along with others, Decembers have been very kind tothe majority for the past several years, you come to expect it to be good when you get spoiled with the goods so to speak. Obviously what I expect in my area and what someone further to the NW expects is different for December. Ifyou can cash in on a chance or two when things break your way with some decentcold in place then you might just get what you are suppose to average for themonth, it does not always have to be a monster! Maybe it’s the kind of winter where most nickel and dime their way to average who knows really! I am just going to take what we have now and deal with it! Like others have said also I would really be bothered if we went hard early and then things went to hell in a hand basket come the middle of winter. I am just going to roll with it and hopefully we can maybe start to shake things up as wehead toward the 2nd half of December and beyond. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 I think we need a strong CF with a couple of days of strong CAA to drive the thermal boundary south, skim the warm layer off the SSTs, knock down the ridge axis and we score. -EPO, Santa Ana winds, Arctic air nearby, I would be very surprised if there is not a short lead winter storm after the 10th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 From Ryan Maue's site.... another reason why the 18z GFS is likely far too cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 The redskins have better blocking than these maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 From Ryan Maue's site.... another reason why the 18z GFS is likely far too cold. As you can see it's only the horrific runs that are higher in the index and of course..are more likely to be right based on a 3 week stinkfest on the models/the GFS has been at this for weeks now and has been terrible. The only ice we'll be seeing will be on the rocks at the bottom of our glasses Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 As you can see it's only the horrific runs that are higher in the index and of course..are more likely to be right based on a 3 week stinkfest on the models/the GFS has been at this for weeks now and has been terrible. The euro hasn't been much better. I think the models were just way to gung ho in breaking down the +AO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 Judging by some of the posts today you'd think the entire month was going be above normal with no snow..Sure glad we don't live in the midatlantic or anywhere near DC Based on the information seen today and the past couple days besides the 12/1/11 18z GFS, then yes most of this month is going to suck. When the gradient sets up over montreal instead of NYC then I'd say were in for a good part of the month being above normal with rain or being normal or below normal with no snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 If that upsets you do not look at the Euro ENS, yikes fortunately i dont get have access lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 From Ryan Maue's site.... another reason why the 18z GFS is likely far too cold. Sad part is, the 18z gfs wasn't even thaaaat cold...yes slightly below average at times, but nothing amazing.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 It's not worth getting depressed about. Any event won't probably be able to be seen on the models until 4 or 5 days out, especially if that cold plays havoc with the modeling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 Do you mean this? http://www.cpc.ncep....ent.ascii.table The funniest thing right now is how bad the 10 day NAO ensemble forecasts were, for example we verified around +1.6, the Day 10 forecast was around -0.1 thanks for the link if i'm reading this correctly, then the NAO in december 2007 was 0.34 thats a big difference from where it is now, and goes along with my suspicions.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 Sad part is, the 18z gfs wasn't even thaaaat cold...yes slightly below average at times, but nothing amazing.. Well I was more referring to the monster dump into the northern Plains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 It's not worth getting depressed about. Any event won't probably be able to be seen on the models until 4 or 5 days out, especially if that cold plays havoc with the modeling. Wait... I shouldn't be tying the noose yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 fortunately i dont get have access lol They are on Allan's weather page right here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 Wait... I shouldn't be tying the noose yet? Don't let the anchors see you swinging from the rafters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 Wait... I shouldn't be tying the noose yet? Take what we can get month. It could be worse, that's for sure. Hopefully that cold dump has some legs as it moves east. There should be storms riding along that boundary for sure, obviously we know what the risks our if the trough out west gets too strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 Well I was more referring to the monster dump into the northern Plains. Ahh, yeah screwing with the NAO long term will give you skewed cold like that.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 We need something to press the heights in E Canada down a bit...hopefully the EPO is enough to do it with the model biases of under estimating -EPO cold...but we run the risk of having the SE ridge too tilted vertical which would screw us and maybe even NNE too. Its marginal as it is for us, we'll need all the help we can get. amen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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