danstorm Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 its the pig arse SE ridge that is killing us Yeah, and its orientation/position also isn't good for SNE... sometimes we can get away with it and sneak a few storms over the top... but this b*tch is sticking her nose up and deflecting everything before it reaches us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 Well with that cold outbreak on either model, they'll definitely be disturbances riding along the east side of it. If we can time it, that would make for some wintry events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 Its just laughable at this point 12z 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 Yeah, and its orientation/position also isn't good for SNE... sometimes we can get away with it and sneak a few storms over the top... but this b*tch is sticking her nose up and deflecting everything before it reaches us. Couple of Dms less and an elongation east and its game on. Having that cold in canada is pretty sweet, living on the edge, dam breaks before we know it. Sure looks like a 08 type setup to me cept for the orientation of the PAR ( pig arse ridge) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 Its just laughable at this point 12z 18z The GFS broke off part of a PV so it's solution probably should be taken with a grain of salt unless 00z shows it. I don't think it's unreasonable, given the ridge up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 1, 2011 Author Share Posted December 1, 2011 Its just laughable at this point Jack's going to rise from the grave and you'll have an answer to the long riddle of who is Mr. Whobityourcockoff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 If you don't mind me asking, what do they show for the rest of the country? Canadian prairies torch in week 2 but lower rockies and SW are cold...week 3 the whole west including Canada is cold. Week 4 is similar but not as cold...upper plains back to torching in week 4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 Jack's going to rise from the grave and you'll have an answer to the long riddle of who is Mr. Whobityourcockoff. shhhh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 There's going to be a ton of cold air in our side of the NHEM. That differentiates this year from 2001-02. Hopefully, the AO/NAO/SE ridge/PNA/EPO can all start working in tandem. The SE ridge response is entirely secondary to no NAO as in nothing to stop it. Can you imagine how hot last winter would have been without the NAO? I think there are positive developments showing up Jerry. I'm hopeful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 I don't really see a change with the GFS... its fooking putrid... It sucks knowing you won't see an advisory event until at least the 26th. Every time the cold comes in, the high is over the northeast and then when a storm comes it goes to that gross place in the Atlantic... What the hells the point of cold if its just going to be dry? This pattern absolutely blows. ================================================ How long have you had the gift of clairvoyance? BTW, today is 12/1. I'm going to Cali from the 18th to the 25 to I have about 2 weeks for snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tacoman25 Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 Canadian prairies torch in week 2 but lower rockies and SW are cold...week 3 the whole west including Canada is cold. Week 4 is similar but not as cold...upper plains back to torching in week 4. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 Couple of Dms less and an elongation east and its game on. Having that cold in canada is pretty sweet, living on the edge, dam breaks before we know it. Sure looks like a 08 type setup to me cept for the orientation of the PAR ( pig arse ridge) I say that cold wins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 I don't really see a change with the GFS... its fooking putrid... It sucks knowing you won't see an advisory event until at least the 26th. Every time the cold comes in, the high is over the northeast and then when a storm comes it goes to that gross place in the Atlantic... What the hells the point of cold if its just going to be dry? This pattern absolutely blows. How long have you had the gift of clairvoyance? BTW, today is 12/1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 The GFS broke off part of a PV so it's solution probably should be taken with a grain of salt unless 00z shows it. I don't think it's unreasonable, given the ridge up there. I'm hoping the wetstorm 12/6 can roll itself up enough to clog up the flow. I think if we get a monster out of that in the martimes we see the changes weatherfella has been dreaming about since June. I say that cold wins. I'm shocked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 1, 2011 Author Share Posted December 1, 2011 I'm hoping the wetstorm 12/6 can roll itself up enough to clog up the flow. I'm shocked. I think with a gradient pattern even if we're well below the gradient, you get bowling balls but nothing huge. We need a monster, a ginxy gale. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 I think anyone in their right mind would take that gfs run in a heart beat. What a difference from 12z. Models are having a really tough time with this pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 I think with a gradient pattern even if we're well below the gradient, you get bowling balls but nothing huge. We need a monster, a ginxy gale. We need something to press the heights in E Canada down a bit...hopefully the EPO is enough to do it with the model biases of under estimating -EPO cold...but we run the risk of having the SE ridge too tilted vertical which would screw us and maybe even NNE too. Its marginal as it is for us, we'll need all the help we can get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 Garbage in..garbage out..Weenies down weenies up..One thing we can get count on every 6 hours on a daily basis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 And that se ridge ain't going nowhere....there is going to be one hell of a battle somewhere. And if we're on the losing end it's going to be ugly with a cutter. I do think our threat for wintry weather comes in around the 15th +/- a couple days if the storm track is able to ooze southeast enough. I am very worried that the SE ridge flexes enough to bump the storm track too far north. I think anything overly amplified to our west becomes an ugly cutter. +EPO return after Dec 15 is a big concern beyond the 20th for cold in eastern CONUS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 And if we're on the losing end it's going to be ugly with a cutter. I do think our threat for wintry weather comes in around the 15th +/- a couple days if the storm track is able to ooze southeast enough. I am very worried that the SE ridge flexes enough to bump the storm track too far north. I think anything overly amplified to our west becomes an ugly cutter. +EPO return after Dec 15 is a big concern beyond the 20th for cold in eastern CONUS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 I think anyone in their right mind would take that gfs run in a heart beat. What a difference from 12z. Models are having a really tough time with this pattern. I think the ensembles have been in reasonably good shape... it's when we're looking at D8-D10 op runs and seeing big changes that really shouldn't be a big surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 Agree with Jerry we need a bonafide gulf monster to track up into the lakes, establish some sort of blocking and 50/50, until then its rinse repeat with an outside chance of western nne getting some junk. Still early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 Well his concerns are valid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 Agree with Jerry we need a bonafide gulf monster to track up into the lakes, establish some sort of blocking and 50/50, until then its rinse repeat with an outside chance of western nne getting some junk. Still early. We aren't getting any blocking any time soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 I think the ensembles have been in reasonably good shape... it's when we're looking at D8-D10 op runs and seeing big changes that really shouldn't be a big surprise. I disagree...I think the indices forecasts are a pretty good indicator that even the ensembles are not handling the hemispheric pattern well in the medium range. The main players are there...but it seems like there are some real modeling issues with re: gradient and how strong the SE ridge is. The models don't know whether or not to get the good cold air into the midwest and northeast or just leave it up in south Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 Agree with Jerry we need a bonafide gulf monster to track up into the lakes, establish some sort of blocking and 50/50, until then its rinse repeat with an outside chance of western nne getting some junk. Still early. Even if we had that, I don't think it would shake things up...maybe a transient block, but it may go right back. The conditions making the +AO stable aren't going anywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 I disagree...I think the indices forecasts are a pretty good indicator that even the ensembles are not handling the hemispheric pattern well in the medium range. The main players are there...but it seems like there are some real modeling issues with re: gradient and how strong the SE ridge is. The models don't know whether or not to get the good cold air into the midwest and northeast or just leave it up in south Canada. Which for a D8-D10 forecast is going to be a b_tch to figured out. We really shouldn't be surprised to see the op runs swinging wildly in that time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 Weeklies look ok but not great. Looks like +EPO return for a period and just in general anti-blocking ugly looking Pacific through New Years. At least we're not talking about monster + departures by the end of the month but there's not much to be excited about in the weeklies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 Time to name these the euro wrecklies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 Even if we had that, I don't think it would shake things up...maybe a transient block, but it may go right back. The conditions making the +AO stable aren't going anywhere. I understand Scooter, but even a narrow window would be something, better than what we have, the only thing not transient over the last 3 months is the inferno, oh well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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