Cold Miser Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 Just might do that Might as well. Warm and toasty is all we got. Although Saturday looks to be the coolest of upcoming days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 At least its at the end of the run so things can change We assume change can be good....could also be an inferno change too. CPC not budging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 wow, just saw the 12z euro op run in full, what an unmitigated disaster. i mentioned a while back that NNE may be hardpressed to see any real snow of value in the first 10-15 days of december....and well the euro puts the hammer down.....but we'll see what happens moving forward. sure there may be a gradient but its been hanging out over central ontario and cannot push further S E it seems, all fall and it just doesnt look to be budging..... even though the cold backed off in SNE several days ago, it is now backing off all the way back through huron by the day creeping westwards. does someone have the link to the indices data from the past....you know that white page that just has bunch of numbers on it that give you the mean indice for each month? my feeling is that yeah, there is a +NAO but right now its too positive even for here to even get cold air establsihed (ie Step 1) and beat down the SE ridge, and in its current state....just total garbage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 Hard to remember a year when santa anas were blowing when we did not get some decent winter weather within a week Another round of strong winds was expected Thursday afternoon, producing gusts of 60 to 80 mph, according to the National Weather Service. The peak gust was 97 mph, reported at Whitaker Peak on Wednesday night. On Thursday morning, the highest recorded gusts were also at Whitaker Peak at 61 mph. Pasadena, Sierra Madre and other foothill communities of the San Gabriel Valley were the hardest hit by windstorm. You can't remember now ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 wow, just saw the 12z euro op run in full, what an unmitigated disaster. i mentioned a while back that NNE may be hardpressed to see any real snow of value in the first 10-15 days of december....and well the euro puts the hammer down.....but we'll see what happens moving forward. sure there may be a gradient but its been hanging out over central ontario and cannot push further S E it seems, all fall and it just doesnt look to be budging..... even though the cold backed off in SNE several days ago, it is now backing off all the way back through huron by the day creeping westwards. does someone have the link to the indices data from the past....you know that white page that just has bunch of numbers on it that give you the mean indice for each month? my feeling is that yeah, there is a +NAO but right now its too positive even for here to even get cold air establsihed (ie Step 1) and beat down the SE ridge, and in its current state....just total garbage. If that upsets you do not look at the Euro ENS, yikes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 You can't remember now ? No usually we get the Goods when intermountain highs set up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 wow, just saw the 12z euro op run in full, what an unmitigated disaster. i mentioned a while back that NNE may be hardpressed to see any real snow of value in the first 10-15 days of december....and well the euro puts the hammer down.....but we'll see what happens moving forward. sure there may be a gradient but its been hanging out over central ontario and cannot push further S E it seems, all fall and it just doesnt look to be budging..... even though the cold backed off in SNE several days ago, it is now backing off all the way back through huron by the day creeping westwards. does someone have the link to the indices data from the past....you know that white page that just has bunch of numbers on it that give you the mean indice for each month? my feeling is that yeah, there is a +NAO but right now its too positive even for here to even get cold air establsihed (ie Step 1) and beat down the SE ridge, and in its current state....just total garbage. Do you mean this? http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/norm.nao.monthly.b5001.current.ascii.table The funniest thing right now is how bad the 10 day NAO ensemble forecasts were, for example we verified around +1.6, the Day 10 forecast was around -0.1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 It's hard to see that tremendous cold air pouring into most of Canada and then realize that apparently very little of it ever reaches us. I think it would easier to take if the Pacific was just overwhelming everything and we weren't teased at all. wow, just saw the 12z euro op run in full, what an unmitigated disaster. i mentioned a while back that NNE may be hardpressed to see any real snow of value in the first 10-15 days of december....and well the euro puts the hammer down.....but we'll see what happens moving forward. sure there may be a gradient but its been hanging out over central ontario and cannot push further S E it seems, all fall and it just doesnt look to be budging..... even though the cold backed off in SNE several days ago, it is now backing off all the way back through huron by the day creeping westwards. does someone have the link to the indices data from the past....you know that white page that just has bunch of numbers on it that give you the mean indice for each month? my feeling is that yeah, there is a +NAO but right now its too positive even for here to even get cold air establsihed (ie Step 1) and beat down the SE ridge, and in its current state....just total garbage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 I hope that system out west gets crunched in the confluent flow as it heads east...that would mean less SE ridging getting pumped up and obviously more cold for us....and a SWFE that would probably be snow. I like the cold in Canada a lot this run but we are in danger of a lakes cutter if there is too much phasing out west. I'd like to see some flattening of the heights in SE Canada on future runs. That 1045+ high though to our north is a good sign...it probably was underplaying the cold that thing would deliver. I agree. That's some serious cold. It's on the move and looking for trouble. Perhaps a cutter will be the price we have to pay to shuffle the deck. Though I could see an air mass like that crushing the SE ridge a bit while at the same time pumping up heights out west.lol Just sayin'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 1, 2011 Author Share Posted December 1, 2011 Pull the plug on 12/1-10. However, I'm hopeful that we can get the cold beyond 12/10 and maybe it will start the pattern change after all? Where the fook are those straws..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 Weeklies are in. Looks like the week preceding Christmas is warmest according to them. I don't really see anything God awful in them, but It's not a very wintry pattern either. They cool down a little bit in the last week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 Weeklies are in. Looks like the week preceding Christmas is warmest according to them. I don't really see anything God awful in them, but It's not a very wintry pattern either. They cool down a little bit in the last week. They looks weird...almost like in week 2 it wants to have a SE Canada vortex or something....because New England is slightly below avg temps Dec 13-19 but nobody else is in the eastern half of US. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 Weeklies are in. Looks like the week preceding Christmas is warmest according to them. I don't really see anything God awful in them, but It's not a very wintry pattern either. They cool down a little bit in the last week. Does it resemble, Dec 07 and 93? The pattern over the next few weeks will likely be gradient IMO with a uncertain Pacific and no blocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 Weeklies are in. Looks like the week preceding Christmas is warmest according to them. I don't really see anything God awful in them, but It's not a very wintry pattern either. They cool down a little bit in the last week. Well, it's a start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 They looks weird...almost like in week 2 it wants to have a SE Canada vortex or something....because New England is slightly below avg temps Dec 13-19 but nobody else is in the eastern half of US. Yeah don't know.....it's tough to tell with a weekly average, what it going on day to day. I don't really see why they would do that, other than the last 2 frames of the ensembles showing feeble troughing, but not like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 They looks weird...almost like in week 2 it wants to have a SE Canada vortex or something....because New England is slightly below avg temps Dec 13-19 but nobody else is in the eastern half of US. There's our wintry week AMOUT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 Weeklies are in. Looks like the week preceding Christmas is warmest according to them. I don't really see anything God awful in them, but It's not a very wintry pattern either. They cool down a little bit in the last week. So roughly 3 weeks above and the last week cools off a smidge...with a few cold shots mixed in? For Big Steve Ginx...Big Joe Bastardi tweeted "Get used to it though, thats the type of la nina winter we can have this year..troughs dropping south down the coast" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 1, 2011 Author Share Posted December 1, 2011 Weeklies have improved. WE will probably have chances during the mid December week followed by a torch during the week prior to Christmas followed by HM's cold and snow beyond 12/20. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 Does it resemble, Dec 07 and 93? The pattern over the next few weeks will likely be gradient IMO with a uncertain Pacific and no blocking. No it's not like Dec '07 right now because the ridge near AK is lacking amplitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 No it's not like Dec '07 right now because the ridge near AK is lacking amplitude. its the pig arse SE ridge that is killing us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 So roughly 3 weeks above and the last week cools off a smidge...with a few cold shots mixed in? Well verbatim yeah, but if we're going to have overrunning events....850 temps wil be above normal...even with all snow. Basically imo, it sort of continues the status quo. I don't see any big changes, other than the week 2 weird phenomenon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 No it's not like Dec '07 right now because the ridge near AK is lacking amplitude. There does seem to be some movement of the AO starting in a couple of weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 18z GFS unleashes the arctic into the Plains. I hope that comes east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 1, 2011 Author Share Posted December 1, 2011 There does seem to be some movement of the AO starting in a couple of weeks. There's going to be a ton of cold air in our side of the NHEM. That differentiates this year from 2001-02. Hopefully, the AO/NAO/SE ridge/PNA/EPO can all start working in tandem. The SE ridge response is entirely secondary to no NAO as in nothing to stop it. Can you imagine how hot last winter would have been without the NAO? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 There's going to be a ton of cold air in our side of the NHEM. That differentiates this year from 2001-02. Hopefully, the AO/NAO/SE ridge/PNA/EPO can all start working in tandem. The SE ridge response is entirely secondary to no NAO as in nothing to stop it. Can you imagine how hot last winter would have been without the NAO? As hot as you tonight when Momma gives you your 65th birthday present in her see through Teddy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 And that se ridge ain't going nowhere....there is going to be one hell of a battle somewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 Record cold I think in the Plains if that happened. Don't know if this run is a kook run or if it's on to something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 Record cold I think in the Plains if that happened. Don't know if this run is a kook run or if it's on to something. The placement of the SE ridge looks more euro-like in that its slightly elongated and displaced to the east, thus allowing for more arctic air to work in. We'll see where it goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 What a difference. Jeez. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tacoman25 Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 They looks weird...almost like in week 2 it wants to have a SE Canada vortex or something....because New England is slightly below avg temps Dec 13-19 but nobody else is in the eastern half of US. If you don't mind me asking, what do they show for the rest of the country? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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