CT Rain Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 old news , phil posted this two hours ago. Bears repeating with an all out torch Dec 2-8. Torch has been the way to go. When in doubt go warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 Probably high dews Wed as well. LOL remember like Sunday or Monday when Phil posted about how the euro had 20s for sne next Wednesday? Good times... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 Bears repeating with an all out torch Dec 2-8. Torch has been the way to go. When in doubt go warm. that seems to be the theme...like "when in drought, forecast drought" would be nice to wake-up tomorrow morning and see the cold modeled a day closer...and not 9 days away, again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 The GFS op FWIW....(and it may not be much) I think has been beating the euro in the 6-10 day. It's like the euro is catching up to the GFS. The euro today is a lot more like the GFS last night. Something to think about going forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 The GFS op FWIW....(and it may not be much) I think has been beating the euro in the 6-10 day. It's like the euro is catching up to the GFS. The euro today is a lot more like the GFS last night. Something to think about going forward. completely anecdotal, but i'm finding the euro to be wildly erratic in the long range right now. and not just erratic, also extreme. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 Bears repeating with an all out torch Dec 2-8. Torch has been the way to go. When in doubt go warm. Just bustin ya. Hey I posted an 08 map a while back and damn if it doesn"t look like we are heading down that path. -EPO LL cold seems the way to go. We will need a flattening of the pig arse ridge a tad, some undercutting and we are gold. Ray says no way but we shall see, seen worse setups first week Of Dec pan out sweet midmonth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 completely anecdotal, but i'm finding the euro to be wildly erratic in the long range right now. and not just erratic, also extreme. That was also true last winter, day 7 forward is bizarre Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 completely anecdotal, but i'm finding the euro to be wildly erratic in the long range right now. and not just erratic, also extreme. Well I just went back and looked at the run from 12z/23 and the euro op is defintely closer to what we are having now, but it seems like after day 8, it can go nuts. I guess I can't claim a winner and loser going forward just yet, but it does seem erratic. Seems very quick to flood areas in the west with Pacific air in one run, only to look like the GFS 12 hrs later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 That was also true last winter day 7 forward is bizarre yeah that's entirely possible. i don't know. and the reality is, the "numbers" might say otherwise, but at least for the CONUS, and this region, i feel like it's had a bad run of late in the long range. more so with just wild run-to-run shifts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 yeah that's entirely possible. i don't know. and the reality is, the "numbers" might say otherwise, but at least for the CONUS, and this region, i feel like it's had a bad run of late in the long range. more so with just wild run-to-run shifts. Good thing we have ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 yeah that's entirely possible. i don't know. and the reality is, the "numbers" might say otherwise, but at least for the CONUS, and this region, i feel like it's had a bad run of late in the long range. more so with just wild run-to-run shifts. I haven't thought the GFS was much better..because I remember the GFS bringing the serious cold in the northeast and the lakes. As I was posting earlier, I think that ridiculous +AO may be playing havoc with the models later in the medium range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 yeah that's entirely possible. i don't know. and the reality is, the "numbers" might say otherwise, but at least for the CONUS, and this region, i feel like it's had a bad run of late in the long range. more so with just wild run-to-run shifts. What is disconcerting and probably true with all models is we are getting delayed and muted signals every day. The Euro weeklies seem better than the OP, Ens 8-14. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 Good thing we have ensembles. I think the ensembles have changed considerably too, but definitely better. They were overzealous in bringing the cold east, too....barring a flip flop, of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 I think the ensembles have changed considerably too, but definitely better. They were overzealous in bringing the cold east, too....barring a flip flop, of course. Well I mean more for the fact that they usually have more reasonalble solutions, as compared to the op run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 What is disconcerting and probably true with all models is we are getting delayed and muted signals every day. The Euro weeklies seem better than the OP, Ens 8-14. Speaking of the weeklies, When do they come out again? Is it Today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 completely anecdotal, but i'm finding the euro to be wildly erratic in the long range right now. and not just erratic, also extreme. I'm not sure if there is any statistical data on it but I'd imagine the Euro may have a tendency to perform worse in a -PNA pattern or even a +PNA pattern where the ridge is centered more in the GOA than on the West Coast because of its problem cutting off disturbances in the SW. One thing is for sure, the Euro has a man crush on developing cutters in the long range which never verify. You can usually bank on the Euro being right when the GFS shows a storm as well but when the Euro shows a cutter and the GFS shows nothing or just a weak system I find more often than not that the GFS winds up being right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 Very zonal looking flow at the end of the euro ensembles after the cold outbreak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 BOX is on FB now, just posted Kevs driveway pic from last year on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 Very zonal looking flow at the end of the euro ensembles after the cold outbreak. At least its at the end of the run so things can change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 Very zonal looking flow at the end of the euro ensembles after the cold outbreak. the cold outbreak in Canada or is this after 240 hours? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 That was also true last winter, day 7 forward is bizarre Torch week 1 as expected, should be a great weekend to fire up the pit, you burning this weekend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 the cold outbreak in Canada or is this after 240 hours? The end of the ensembles after 300 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 We get new weeklies this evening as well. Weeks 2/3 should be interesting to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 the cold outbreak in Canada or is this after 240 hours? It's after d12 basically. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 Torch week 1 as expected, should be a great weekend to fire up the pit, you burning this weekend? . . . I'm going to have a fire Saturday night. Come on by and we can relive winter days of old. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 It's after d12 basically. great... lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 great... lol Well I mean when the flow turns more zonal. The chunk of the cold still looks like it plunges into the Plains, but we should get a piece of it. I don't see arctic cold or anything right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 A little more warmer anomalies showing up at 10mb and 50mb with each day. Lets get this to work down more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 . . . I'm going to have a fire Saturday night. Come on by and we can relive winter days of old. Just might do that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 Hard to remember a year when santa anas were blowing when we did not get some decent winter weather within a week Another round of strong winds was expected Thursday afternoon, producing gusts of 60 to 80 mph, according to the National Weather Service. The peak gust was 97 mph, reported at Whitaker Peak on Wednesday night. On Thursday morning, the highest recorded gusts were also at Whitaker Peak at 61 mph. Pasadena, Sierra Madre and other foothill communities of the San Gabriel Valley were the hardest hit by windstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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