CoastalWx Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 GEFS would be nice for a SWFE or two, if they panned out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 GEFS would be nice for a SWFE or two, if they panned out. Now we're cooking. This is like white on rice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 We should all throw in 20 bucks and pick the departure for December at the 4 major's, closest one wins the pot and buys a round or two at a Jan G2G Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 We should all throw in 20 bucks and pick the departure for December at the 4 major's, closest one wins the pot and buys a round or two at a Jan G2G We're not having one in January. Grab your ballz and come to the one next weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 We should all throw in 20 bucks and pick the departure for December at the 4 major's, closest one wins the pot and buys a round or two at a Jan G2G My 20 is in and here are my guesses..... BOS +4.1 ORH +4.9 PVD +2.3 BDL +3.4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 And I'm putting a few bucks aside each day for the 2 meals I will be buying messenger. We'll enjoy the food at least! Or we can double down and bring the wives. Your choice. There's not much on the models that makes me think the first 15 or so days of December are going to be anything but 1.5+ in Bos and PVD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 Now we're cooking. This is like white on rice Notice I said if they panned out. Selective reading FTL. Still think we'll have a chance or two, but the GEFS are showing a better pattern than the EC is. Wish it were the other way around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 1, 2011 Author Share Posted December 1, 2011 Well let's cash in during the period of opportunity and hope like sometimes it starts a change for the better long term. I've seen that happen time and time again so there's always hope. But the guidance is overall not encouraging unless we get some blocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 We're not having one in January. Grab your ballz and come to the one next weekend Impossible and 6 hrs round trip driving after a few beers does not make a lick of sense, so I have to spend the night and I just cant do it that weekend. Hopefully next time, or we can finally do one in CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 Actually GEFS are caving to the euro a bit, and the euro ensembles may have taken a step towards the GEFS overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 Actually GEFS are caving to the euro a bit, and the euro ensembles may have taken a step towards the GEFS overall. Do ce do your partna..round and round we go.. left hand, right hand,,now promenade Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 Having a + December isn't a terrible thing. We did it in 2008. My guess is the first half if Dec is positive and possibly the whole month, but this isn't the Mid Atlantic where + temp departures means no snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 Is there a site for ensemble skill scores? I only seem to find stuff for the operational models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 Having a + December isn't a terrible thing. We did it in 2008. My guess is the first half if Dec is positive and possibly the whole month, but this isn't the Mid Atlantic where + temp departures means no snow. Thats true, however this torch might be a little different, I could see the south coast getting totally shutout of accumulating snow for the month, we just need a freeze down here for the LOVE OF GOD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 Is there a site for ensemble skill scores? I only seem to find stuff for the operational models. yeah emc has it.. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/GEFS/verif.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 I'm actually pretty encouraged.. it looks like this -EPO might have some staying power. And we've got a nice PV sitting in Canada so some decent cold up there. Should be plenty of chances in a pattern like this. It depends where the gradient sets up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 yeah emc has it.. http://www.emc.ncep..../GEFS/verif.php GEFS and GFS have really ripped it up accuracy wise. Weatherfellas squirrels verified better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 yeah emc has it.. http://www.emc.ncep..../GEFS/verif.php so the ensembles only do better D6+ ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 Ok this is the ECMWF run that's going to break the abysmal pattern. Let it begin............... so the ensembles only do better D6+ ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 Ok this is the ECMWF run that's going to break the abysmal pattern. Let it begin............... lol....Lets just hope there are some subtle changes.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 lol....Lets just hope there are some subtle changes.. Yet there is hope ala 08, some similarities here 08 5H Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 Concerning the backlash advertised, I'll quote Herman Cain. "Ain't gonna happen" I'm convinced that mets only forecast that to cover their azzes in the 1 time in a decade that it actually occurs. Scott....only messn... you have done well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 Yet there is hope ala 08, some similarities here 08 5H That se ridge keeps flexing its muscle will will end up + departures for dec as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 That se ridge keeps flexing its muscle will will end up + departures for dec as well 08 +1 - +1.5 with 20-32 inches I would take a positive no prob Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 08 +1 - +1.5 with 20-32 inches I would take a positive no prob But that is only one year...doesn't mean we get that much this December with positive departures... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 But that is only one year...doesn't mean we get that much this December with positive departures... No thats for sure , did not mean to imply that at all. I was showing how a bad pattern can produce, does not mean it will but it can. Weather has a way of not following computer simulation, works that way sometimes. All of a sudden like happened in 08 during a crap pattern 4 days out something popped up. Never said it would but it can. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 08 +1 - +1.5 with 20-32 inches I would take a positive no prob I would not either, Except this gradient looks to set up for the time being further north and west with the strength of the ridge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 I would not either, Except this gradient looks to set up for the time being further north and west with the strength of the ridge actually if you believe GEFS it is pretty similar but yea that pig arse ridge sucks. First the Death Vortex now when we kill that we get a pig arse ridge. Right now all we need is Jerrys fooking elephant for the second half of the winter, LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 Euro has some brutal brutal cold coming down the canadian prairies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 All the negativity and folks hurling themselves down the stairs all starts everyday with the GFS. I go into this GFS rage every winter. It shouldn't be used. period. For anything. If it was a great run today, everyone would be jumping for joy..when it sucks everyone gouges their eyes out. It's ridiculous. I toss it out good or bad. " All the negativity in this town sucks. It sucks, and it stinks, and it sucks.....Dec 2007 is not walking through that door, fans.....December 1970 or December 2008 are not walking through that door. And if they do, they're gonna get blown to hell by the PAC jet". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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