weathafella Posted December 1, 2011 Author Share Posted December 1, 2011 winter is coming the only one forecaster that is staying with his winter forecast is steve from ny weather he is good. . -nao is coming winter weather pattern is coming . The weather pattern is changing every day since Nov will take two more weeks but will get into colder stormy pattern for the east coast . those that say winter will be warm will be wrong . Southern New england will get two good snowstorms during dec and above normal snowfall for the winter season just like last winter. Just because Nov and start of Dec is warm doesn't mean winter will be warm . But likely be cold and stormy. Blizz...this is a great post...it is vintage blizz....HOF worthy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 Why do you guys put so much faith in the op GFS runs. i just can't understand it. Everyone lives and dies with the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 Why do you guys put so much faith in the op GFS runs. i just can't understand it. Everyone lives and dies with the GFS hvy hvy above normal temperatures Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 Why do you guys put so much faith in the op GFS runs. i just can't understand it. Everyone lives and dies with the GFS 'Cuz it's the only GFS we've got? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 Why do you guys put so much faith in the op GFS runs. i just can't understand it. Everyone lives and dies with the GFS I think people were just talking about what it showed after next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 I think people were just talking about what it showed after next week. All the negativity and folks hurling themselves down the stairs all starts everyday with the GFS. I go into this GFS rage every winter. It shouldn't be used. period. For anything. If it was a great run today, everyone would be jumping for joy..when it sucks everyone gouges their eyes out. It's ridiculous. I toss it out good or bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 I can recall years when this kind of thing happens to the Maritimes as we gleefully enjoy being in the just the right spot for the snow events to run the coast. By that I mean the cold always dies on approach to them as they sit too much under the ridge position. Now I understand the misery of it. Now we know what it's like when we get one snow storm after another and Halifax goes to rain every time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 I could easily see a +3 or higher month around sne, easily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 All the negativity and folks hurling themselves down the stairs all starts everyday with the GFS. I go this GFS rage every winter. It shouldn't be used. period. For anything. If it was a great run today, everyone would be jumping for joy..when it sucks everyone gouges their eyes out. It's ridiculous. I toss it out good or bad. :lol: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 All the negativity and folks hurling themselves down the stairs all starts everyday with the GFS. I go this GFS rage every winter. It shouldn't be used. period. For anything. If it was a great run today, everyone would be jumping for joy..when it sucks everyone gouges their eyes out. It's ridiculous. I toss it out good or bad. Noting how the GFS sucks in the longer range isn't sucking down an exhaust pipe...I think people know the GFS op and Euro op beyond day 7 are anyone's guess. The beloved euro op after day 7 isn't much better at all. It's within 6 days where it seems to shine, or at least perform better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 So today's Euro will be a huge then. We're inside six days of the Midweek thing.... Noting how the GFS sucks in the longer range isn't sucking down an exhaust pipe...I think people know the GFS op and Euro op beyond day 7 are anyone's guess. The beloved euro op after day 7 isn't much better at all. It's within 6 days where it seems to shine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 Noting how the GFS sucks in the longer range isn't sucking down an exhaust pipe...I think people know the GFS op and Euro op beyond day 7 are anyone's guess. The beloved euro op after day 7 isn't much better at all. It's within 6 days where it seems to shine. My point is everyone is ok until the GFS comes out. Depending on how the run turns out peple either cream their jeans, or go slam their heads in the car door. I wish we could all just try one day not looking at it..and just see how much better people's forecasts were/are Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 All the negativity and folks hurling themselves down the stairs all starts everyday with the GFS. I go into this GFS rage every winter. It shouldn't be used. period. For anything. If it was a great run today, everyone would be jumping for joy..when it sucks everyone gouges their eyes out. It's ridiculous. I toss it out good or bad. I haven't even looked at it. That said, we're approaching Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 My point is everyone is ok until the GFS comes out. Depending on how the run turns out peple either cream their jeans, or go slam their heads in the car door. I wish we could all just try one day not looking at it..and just see how much better people's forecasts were/are You can say the same about the euro op in la la land. Rule of thumb for everyone....don't worry about the op run past day 7....don't even blink. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 1, 2011 Author Share Posted December 1, 2011 Ensembles are not much better considering the muting from the mean. Overall, plan on departures of +2-+5 over the next 2 weeks. This pattern is locked and loaded and we're fooked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 You can say the same about the euro op in la la land. Rule of thumb for everyone....don't worry about the op run past day 7....don't even blink. But the point Danstorm made earlier is very relevant and is being glossed over. Most of the time in the past when we had a screaming pattern change we had some indices sharply in our favor. We've really got nothing like that this time. What we have is things coming off the super extremes. IF today the Euro and its ens are a gas pipe very long term again.....we would have to assume this cold shot is very transient and then it's back to decembers version of the torcharoosky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 You can say the same about the euro op in la la land. Rule of thumb for everyone....don't worry about the op run past day 7....don't even blink. The GFS can't even get day 2 right. Ryan always posts MEX/MOS. It struggles with thermal profiles..it's verification scores aren't good enough to wipe diarreah off a man's azz, it predicts ridges when there's actually troughs...it's just plain garbage day 1 to day 21 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 1, 2011 Author Share Posted December 1, 2011 The GFS can't even get day 2 right. Ryan always posts MEX/MOS. It struggles with thermal profiles..it's verification scores aren't good enough to wipe diarreah off a man's azz, it predicts ridges when there's actually troughs...it's just plain garbage day 1 to day 21 Accept the torch...its here for the foreseeable future with occasional short breaks. Maybe we'll get lucky by late month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 1, 2011 Author Share Posted December 1, 2011 And I'm putting a few bucks aside each day for the 2 meals I will be buying messenger. We'll enjoy the food at least! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 My point is everyone is ok until the GFS comes out. Depending on how the run turns out peple either cream their jeans, or go slam their heads in the car door. I wish we could all just try one day not looking at it..and just see how much better people's forecasts were/are the good thing is, i don't think anyone here bases their entire thinking off the GFS. you have to weight it in though. including one of your other favorites...this bad boy: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 Ensembles are not much better considering the muting from the mean. Overall, plan on departures of +2-+5 over the next 2 weeks. This pattern is locked and loaded and we're fooked. Ensembles are actually a good bit better if you look closely. I don't think we're going into a deep winter pattern either..but we're not in the same pattern we've been in and I think +2 to +5 is high.it Couple of telling things. Look how warm Alaska is (it might rain in Anchorage) Trough position in the west is now over the Rockies vs off the west coast so even though core of cold is there..much easier to get pieces east and not modified as much Ridge position in the atlantic is farther east meaning the cooler air masses will pack a little more punch and also have a little more staying power. Again, I thnk maybe a 0.5- +1.5 should do it once past next Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 If it was just the op GFS I'm sure we wouldn't take it seriously. The GFS can't even get day 2 right. Ryan always posts MEX/MOS. It struggles with thermal profiles..it's verification scores aren't good enough to wipe diarreah off a man's azz, it predicts ridges when there's actually troughs...it's just plain garbage day 1 to day 21 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 Ensembles are actually a good bit better if you look closely. I don't think we're going into a deep winter pattern either..but we're not in the same pattern we've been in and I think +2 to +5 is high.it Couple of telling things. Look how warm Alaska is (it might rain in Anchorage) Trough position in the west is now over the Rockies vs off the west coast so even though core of cold is there..much easier to get pieces east and not modified as much Ridge position in the atlantic is farther east meaning the cooler air masses will pack a little more punch and also have a little more staying power. Again, I thnk maybe a 0.5- +1.5 should do it once past next Tuesday. wow this is you circa 2008 when i joined the board...you actually posted something with some reasoning...not just AWT or finding a tweet you like. you should do this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 wow this is you circa 2008 when i joined the board...you actually posted something with some reasoning...not just AWT or finding a tweet you like. you should do this. yes I agree, more Met less copy. He actually has a point too. -EPO signal right there usually indicates lower thickness than models show. But things are bleaker overall than they were last week at this time on all counts. Day by day. Hope we get an 08 surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 But the point Danstorm made earlier is very relevant and is being glossed over. Most of the time in the past when we had a screaming pattern change we had some indices sharply in our favor. We've really got nothing like that this time. What we have is things coming off the super extremes. IF today the Euro and its ens are a gas pipe very long term again.....we would have to assume this cold shot is very transient and then it's back to decembers version of the torcharoosky. I'm not suggesting it's wrong or anything, I'm saying no matter what regime...no matter the time of year...the operational runs (especially this time of year) can be highly volatile after 180 hrs...hell after 96 hrs sometimes. Ensembles aren't always correct, but they give you a much better ideal of the pattern considering they have many different members with different physics packages and perturbations to help mimic chaos in the atmosphere. And of course, it's not wrong to post them and discuss, my point is for those that sometimes people take them more seriously than they should. I look at them for entertainment purposes and put any interesting solutions in the back of my head for a later time. I will say one thing about them...sometimes (and I mean this loosely) they can signal some sort of a change if they all of the sudden show radical solutions...either warm or cold. I've seen it before. However, it's kind of fuzzy area because it can be just volatility too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 wow this is you circa 2008 when i joined the board...you actually posted something with some reasoning...not just AWT or finding a tweet you like. you should do this. LOL..That's what you guys are here for. I thought I made some very compelling points TBH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 Who took Kevin's keyboard? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 Ensembles are actually a good bit better if you look closely. I don't think we're going into a deep winter pattern either..but we're not in the same pattern we've been in and I think +2 to +5 is high.it Couple of telling things. Look how warm Alaska is (it might rain in Anchorage) Trough position in the west is now over the Rockies vs off the west coast so even though core of cold is there..much easier to get pieces east and not modified as much Ridge position in the atlantic is farther east meaning the cooler air masses will pack a little more punch and also have a little more staying power. Again, I thnk maybe a 0.5- +1.5 should do it once past next Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 Who took Kevin's keyboard? LOL.. I am a met you know Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 No question more cold is getting dumped into the CONUS so that's a plus. If only we'd get some signals that it can consistently progress east enough to help us. A scenario like the GFS has midweek for the Interior is very possible, but I just couldn't let myself get into that yet since it's such a hit and miss prospect. If that is still there inside like 72 hours then I'm in...... Ensembles are actually a good bit better if you look closely. I don't think we're going into a deep winter pattern either..but we're not in the same pattern we've been in and I think +2 to +5 is high.it Couple of telling things. Look how warm Alaska is (it might rain in Anchorage) Trough position in the west is now over the Rockies vs off the west coast so even though core of cold is there..much easier to get pieces east and not modified as much Ridge position in the atlantic is farther east meaning the cooler air masses will pack a little more punch and also have a little more staying power. Again, I thnk maybe a 0.5- +1.5 should do it once past next Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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