weathafella Posted December 1, 2011 Author Share Posted December 1, 2011 Happy birthday!! Here's to a snowy winter Thank you Sam. If I get my age in inches it's now a good winter!...lol.. Happy Birthday oldtimer..from another oldtimer!..hey at least we got to see some of the great storms of the 60's..have a good one Jerry Thank you Keith! Remember a week prior to 12/11-12/60? Wow was it warm! I was downcast with no end in sight seemingly. What a great blizzard that was! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 Because I'm bored and procrastinating ... I think the 12z GFS actually looks very very good at hr30. This run should have a nice blizzard for SNE around Dec 7-10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 Because I'm bored and procrastinating ... I think the 12z GFS actually looks very very good at hr30. This run should have a nice blizzard for SNE around Dec 7-10 Shades of 06z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 Thank you Sam. If I get my age in inches it's now a good winter!...lol.. Thank you Keith! Remember a week prior to 12/11-12/60? Wow was it warm! I was downcast with no end in sight seemingly. What a great blizzard that was! i was only 2 Jerry..but I know it was a classic pre Christmas blizzard..goes to show anything can happen.First real snowstorm I ever followed was Dec 24th 1966..made me a snow and weather lover followed by Feb 8th 1967 and then Lindsay..very active time!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 Because I'm bored and procrastinating ... I think the 12z GFS actually looks very very good at hr30. This run should have a nice blizzard for SNE around Dec 7-10 Who are you and what have you done with Sam? I swear I've never seen you this weenied out before over the past couple weeks.. either the monotonous weather is getting to you or you must have gotten laid ------------ In response to below... that's kinda how I feel too.. people always lambaste you for posting a day 7 of the gfs, but what the hell else are we gonna talk about??? Id rathet talk about a small threat od snow than what the GFS depicts at day 16 of a possible pattern change...the pattern sucks and it ain't gonna get better soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 Who are you and what have you done with Sam? I swear I've never seen you this weenied out before over the past couple weeks.. either the monotonous weather is getting to you or you must have gotten laid well I was legit feeling pretty good about this period for a while a week or so ago. Kinda gone downhill since. So I mean aside from getting laid, nothing better to do than recklessly extrapolate model runs out 7 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 If there were a SE ridge index, it would be off the charts lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 Interesting...much less amped at 114 versus 120/06z. I would think the less amped it is before it reaches the coast would result in a better solution for us. Less time for this thing to get super amped and ride west of us. (ala the EURO) EDIT: Scratch that...I'll let it play out before speculating. 850 configuration looks less favorable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 If there were a SE ridge index, it would be off the charts lol. Strengthening every run........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 Interesting...much less amped at 114 versus 120/06z. I would think the less amped it is before it reaches the coast would result in a better solution for us. Less time for this thing to get super amped and ride west of us. (ala the EURO) EDIT: Scratch that...I'll let it play out before speculating. 850 configuration looks less favorable. It is if you like +RN instead of RN, Its a hugger and plenty of warm air to boot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 gfs would suggest we *maybe* have 1 below normal day in the next 7 (saturday - which is close anyway) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 1, 2011 Author Share Posted December 1, 2011 Happy birthday bro./ congrats on the official SS age, mine is 66 and 6+ months. Thanks Steve! Not official yet...mine's also 66. But the nice thing of being born on the 1st is you're eligible the month before. eg: My first check comes next 11/1 vs 12/1. I found that out when the SS lady called me to clarify my medicare. re: The pattern: One thing that bothers me and why I think December is so important. It is rare to have a torch autumn and above normal December and salvage the winter. We have notable exceptions the most recent being 1993 I think but looking at the stinker snow years, many match what we're going through. So to have a good winter we have to buck a trend. It can happen but I'm scratching my head regarding how. Still banking on the squirrels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 Concerning the backlash advertised, I'll quote Herman Cain. "Ain't gonna happen" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 Beat down the SE ridge and shift that storm 100 miles east and its game on............. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 Concerning the backlash advertised, I'll quote Herman Cain. "Ain't gonna happen" there isn't even one there really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 No cold air to be found after that storm. Endless summer more like spring continues! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 The Sultan should be on stand-by. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 Beat down the SE ridge and shift that storm 100 miles east and its game on............. Maybe even 50 miles for NNE from you on west... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 gfs would suggest we *maybe* have 1 below normal day in the next 7 (saturday - which is close anyway) Next week will avg out pretty mild. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 1, 2011 Author Share Posted December 1, 2011 I think we may be staring at 2001-02 for awhile. Funny how I alluded to that in May in Will's winter thoughts thread. What we don't know is the behavior of the NAO after 3 weeks from now...even beyond d7. But right now we're in a highly positive rut which allows the SE ridge to do what it did that winter. Now we're in a negative regime but in negative and positive regimes, you do get years of opposite signs. All you have to do is look at 1995-96 to show that. So despite me saying NAO can kiss my behind, it's the nearby teleconnector and in this pattern, we need it to dampen that freaking ridge in a negative PNA. The problem is, all are related. NAO will have a hard time going negative with an AK vortex, a negative PNA, and a SE ridge running free. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 this gfs run is very similar to yesterday's 12z debacle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 this gfs run is very similar to yesterday's 12z debacle. It's horrible...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 LOL. pretty stupid to see. it's like an early october cold shot. It will work to regional advantage when the cold finally comes for the obvious reason of creating a stronger than normal ambient baroclinicity. Thermodynamic gradient - Yes the 06z GFS was a big hit in a short period of time. That said, with the +PNAP in a westerly bias, trough bifurcation in the east is preferred as they dive out of Canada and encounter the SE ridge wall. In the means that means the northern parts of troughs tend to shear east, and the S/SW regions sever, get stranded as open waves that tend to quasi-close off if there is enough dynamics that need be conserved - if not, dampage. Believe it or not, the Oct 29 snow event was similar in the former sense, although got a late N stream assist. Anyway ... the trough split notion on this run is synoptically supported, what happens afterward is difficult. Jet stream interactions at higher latitudes as a piece of arctic engery interacts with the injection over the top of that PNA ridge is going to be huge for determining what happens 2-3 days later in the OV. If there is more stream phasing that we drill in a whopper of a powerhouse ...more full latitude open wave and probably a big cold fropa wind event on either side of the boundary type thing. If there is weak stream interaction, the trough will come down and split with the northern part shearing eastward with weak cyclogen curling up into the Maritimes, while the SW severed aspect damps ...or possibly induces a weak wet wave for the MA. If there is moderate stream interaction... that may actually be the 06z solution incarnate. ******************************************************************************************************* Interesting changes in the overnight CPC index values. AO sharply beginning a decent beyond D4 or 5, and then dropping from +3 to nearly 0SD in just 10 days. This took place prior to the Halloween snow bomb and I believe still contributed. A well time +PNA spike took place near the nadir of that AO fall leading, and the two came to a temporal nexus right around the 25th of the month ... we ran an impulse(s) into that spatial implication for cold from the OV-NE and the rest was history. There is word out there that the QBO is entering the easterly phase. I believe their is a lag in that correlation so I'd extend caution there. The current U-vector wind anomaly shows a strengthening positive anomaly, currently, and that actually opposes the negative AO phase state. Last year demonstrated that predominating statistical correlators don't always work - we really saw a pretty impressive -AO/-NAO late autumn with little preceding wind and temperature anomalies in the middle and upper altitudes of the PV. In fact, I recall a Meteorologist commenting/posting that a discussion at a recent conference left few answers. There's clearly physical drives in the system that are less well understood, duh. I am aware that the MJO is raging in late 3, entering 4, and is progged by the CEF to be almost historic in 5 and 6 going forward, and that pretty much ends winter during a weak-moderate NINA event. Thankfully if you are a winter weather enthusiast, there is a significant disconnect between the AO and the MJO. Even NCEP (rightfully so) conceded earlier on this year that winters in the N-tier to the OV-NE are often more determined by the AO. Much of this may play into other's "gradient pattern" ideas - agreed - but it also may simply herald in a period of storminess in general, as these background thermal source and sinks vie for proxy hemispherically. You end up with big cold sitting next to seasonally anomalous warmth on a continental scale. Anyone thinking that is Meteorologically boring going forward is probably deeply internally conflicted on some level or another. The only trouble is, this falling AO (also reasonably seen in the NAO progs as well), was only hinted prior to last night's more robust signature. I'd like to see some support from the Euro mean there, as well as a couple more nights of momentum in the GFS cluster. One thing that is somewhat intriguing about this is that the GLAAM is slightly negative and there is currently a negative region propagating polarward through 30N as they tend to do so... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 I think we may be staring at 2001-02 for awhile. Funny how I alluded to that in May in Will's winter thoughts thread. What we don't know is the behavior of the NAO after 3 weeks from now...even beyond d7. But right now we're in a highly positive rut which allows the SE ridge to do what it did that winter. Now we're in a negative regime but in negative and positive regimes, you do get years of opposite signs. All you have to do is look at 1995-96 to show that. So despite me saying NAO can kiss my behind, it's the nearby teleconnector and in this pattern, we need it to dampen that freaking ridge in a negative PNA. The problem is, all are related. NAO will have a hard time going negative with an AK vortex, a negative PNA, and a SE ridge running free. 12/10...12/25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 2001 vs. 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 well I was legit feeling pretty good about this period for a while a week or so ago. Kinda gone downhill since. So I mean aside from getting laid, nothing better to do than recklessly extrapolate model runs out 7 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 1, 2011 Author Share Posted December 1, 2011 12/10...12/25 I'm glad I left the year off..... Yeah that's going to bust I think....but we should wait for verification. This pattern is knocking down everything in its path and I'm just standing on the sideline in awe of how it can reduce people who study these things for years... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 I'm glad I left the year off..... Yeah that's going to bust I think....but we should wait for verification. This pattern is knocking down everything in its path and I'm just standing on the sideline in awe of how it can reduce people who study these things for years... i'm just messin. at this point, i'd be content to string together 3 or 4 negative departures in a row. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzard24 Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 winter is coming the only one forecaster that is staying with his winter forecast is steve from ny weather he is good. . -nao is coming winter weather pattern is coming . The weather pattern is changing every day since Nov will take two more weeks but will get into colder stormy pattern for the east coast . those that say winter will be warm will be wrong . Southern New england will get two good snowstorms during dec and above normal snowfall for the winter season just like last winter. Just because Nov and start of Dec is warm doesn't mean winter will be warm . But likely be cold and stormy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 Gotta get all excited her about my 6 hours of snow on Wednesday surrounded by a sea of mild wx.... Well I'm glad the dart landed on me this run for a chance at snow, but otherwise the run is abysmal as usual. this gfs run is very similar to yesterday's 12z debacle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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