CT Rain Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 I'm hoping we can start tracking something in the next week. I think something will try to make a run at us from the southwest, but obviously details TBD. I'm hoping maybe the GEFS and EC ensembles can compromise, because that wouldn't be that bad. Either way, we've beaten this whole thing like a dead horse..lol. Lets just hope something comes. Yeah with the gradient pattern eventually we're going to get something that poses a wintry threat. I guess right now my concern is that we keep setting the boundary up too far to our northwest and wind up with cutter after cutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 Unfortunately no reasonable person can look at these model runs and find anything positive. Things just look really, really bad. For next week? LOL. Your chance will come after, but maybe a weenie can get lucky next week. My words were not really my words. I'm hopeful, always am in December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 Yeah with the gradient pattern eventually we're going to get something that poses a wintry threat. I guess right now my concern is that we keep setting the boundary up too far to our northwest and wind up with cutter after cutter. Yeah always have to watch out for that. Maybe we also can get something like the GFS op has and have an overrunning chance or two, but those warmer solutions are there as well. I think we'll have overrunning chances in New England once the cold air finally comes, but way too early to go much further than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 My words were not really my words. I'm hopeful, always am in December. They were very hurtfull.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 My words were not really my words. I'm hopeful, always am in December. Oh...lol. At least the EC got a little better, but I wish it wouldn't lower heights in AK. I think we are running out of words to describe everything. We all know what the negatives are, but dam...even an advisory would make me happy. Hoping for that or better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 Oh...lol. At least the EC got a little better, but I wish it wouldn't lower heights in AK. I think we are running out of words to describe everything. We all know what the negatives are, but dam...even an advisory would make me happy. Hoping for that or better. Any snow is good snow right now, Just to lift the spirit, I am actually happy to see frost this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 Can't believe there's not more discussion on the 06z gfs ... it finally separates the front and the low.. its still 7 days out, but more interesting than the frontal low crap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 How warm will next week be? Are we talking 60's again? Mon - Thurs? Or just Mon and Tues? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 How warm will next week be? Are we talking 60's again? Mon - Thurs? Or just Mon and Tues? A little unsure given that we don't know how everything will pan out, but Sunday and Monday will be mild. Euro tries to warm sector Wednesday, but next week is sort of up in the air. It will def avg out above normal for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 Can't believe there's not more discussion on the 06z gfs ... it finally separates the front and the low.. its still 7 days out, but more interesting than the frontal low crap Probably because the 0z did not show it, And its the 1st run that has it, Plus its the GFS out in never never land, If its starts showing up on the Euro, There will be plenty of convo then.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 Euro ensembles have the +EPO returning by the end of the run (again). This has been a feature that keeps popping up. It's the period after a brief return to snowless normal temps that is of most cocern right now. He's happy about all this. He and Messenger love it.. Things are getting shaken up in AK and that will bear fruit for us before long. Define long Pete if you're going to criticize a met. A week, two weeks, two months? That way when it snows in January you can't say you knew it all along. Well, he is Debbie Downer and Messenger calls himself a wet towel. I think there are some positive signs and I don't share te pessimism one bit. We've turned the page. The month finished with near record or record departures everywhere of 3+. Ski resorts lost trails and some closed. The only ice is in peoples freezers and there's no snowmobiling anywhere to speak of. On a wintry note Kev's lawn in springtime green, there's some flowers in bloom and in just 14 days we start gaining minutes on sunset. Unfortunately no reasonable person can look at these model runs and find anything positive. Things just look really, really bad. There's plenty of reasons to be positive, take a few hits of a Jeffrey, stroke the furry wall and stare that the maps longer and you'll see. Probably because the 0z did not show it, And its the 1st run that has it, Plus its the GFS out in never never land, If its starts showing up on the Euro, There will be plenty of convo then.. And for most of us it's still not cold enough. The euro had a little more dip and strength in the tail of the trough but it was overall a little less organized. Still a feature to watch as it slides into the 140-150 hour timeframe where models will either kill it off or start to show something more defined. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 It's the period after a brief return to snowless normal temps that is of most cocern right now. below Define long Pete if you're going to criticize a met. A week, two weeks, two months? That way when it snows in January you can't say you knew it all along. below The month finished with near record or record departures everywhere of 3+. Ski resorts lost trails and some closed. The only ice is in peoples freezers and there's no snowmobiling anywhere to speak of. On a wintry note Kev's lawn in springtime green, there's some flowers in bloom and in just 14 days we start gaining minutes on sunset. below There's plenty of reasons to be positive, take a few hits of a Jeffrey, stroke the furry wall and stare that the maps longer and you'll see. below And for most of us it's still not cold enough. The euro had a little more dip and strength in the tail of the trough but it was overall a little less organized. Still a feature to watch as it slides into the 140-150 hour timeframe where models will either kill it off or start to show something more defined. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 Eventually it all changes Ray. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 Ray is usually pretty calm when he strokes his furry weenie. play nice up there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 I apologize, this isn't a banter thread. Post deleted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 I apologize, this isn't a banter thread. Post deleted. Too late busted, 20 lashes or 20 days no snow , your call. Every day is a new day, maybe we get some -EPO LL colder than progged days coming up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 It's the period after a brief return to snowless normal temps that is of most cocern right now. Define long Pete if you're going to criticize a met. A week, two weeks, two months? That way when it snows in January you can't say you knew it all along. The month finished with near record or record departures everywhere of 3+. Ski resorts lost trails and some closed. The only ice is in peoples freezers and there's no snowmobiling anywhere to speak of. On a wintry note Kev's lawn in springtime green, there's some flowers in bloom and in just 14 days we start gaining minutes on sunset. There's plenty of reasons to be positive, take a few hits of a Jeffrey, stroke the furry wall and stare that the maps longer and you'll see. And for most of us it's still not cold enough. The euro had a little more dip and strength in the tail of the trough but it was overall a little less organized. Still a feature to watch as it slides into the 140-150 hour timeframe where models will either kill it off or start to show something more defined. Great post and I agree. The hints of pattern change are just that, hints... and they are only popping up at day 6-7+ There are some pattern changes that are slam dunks, even at day 7 - the Jan 2007 snap was about as drastic a change as it could be ... but that had support of the major indexes. Unfortunately, nothing in the long range points to a pattern restructuring - sure, a tweak of the PV here, a transient -NAO there, a few flakes in the hills on the backside WNW flow behind the storms... storms which will continue to ride the baro gradient ... a gradient that, given the major players on the field, will continue to set up to our NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 1, 2011 Author Share Posted December 1, 2011 Too late busted, 20 lashes or 20 days no snow , your call. Every day is a new day, maybe we get some -EPO LL colder than progged days coming up. So true! I was thinking that we may get lucky and have the EPO ridge not break down so fast. Wouldn't that be sweet? My bet is the weeklies towards evening will show later weeks with intense cold in Canada and warm to the south. Where will the boundary be? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 Regarding the mother ridge ...that stretches from Lisbon to Richmond. and we can't seem to be rid of.... I have been watching wx since the 70's and this it is often very hard to kill the sub tropical ridge in the late Fall/Early Winter. Eventually it will be vanquished, but seems like the models underestimate it's resiliency. Until we get an upper level pattern that helps out....the ridge just hangs on for a long time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 Great post and I agree. The hints of pattern change are just that, hints... and they are only popping up at day 6-7+ There are some pattern changes that are slam dunks, even at day 7 - the Jan 2007 snap was about as drastic a change as it could be ... but that had support of the major indexes. Unfortunately, nothing in the long range points to a pattern restructuring - sure, a tweak of the PV here, a transient -NAO there, a few flakes in the hills on the backside WNW flow behind the storms... storms which will continue to ride the baro gradient ... a gradient that, given the major players on the field, will continue to set up to our NW. This sums it up beautifully. We have two things going on. Pattern Creep and Weenie Creep and both result in the same thing. Disappointment. I have more faith in our shots coming on the downside transition to cold than I do on resident cold air being overrun as it pertains to areas around the Pike and south. Also as you have mentioned some previous examples of major shifts coming after this type of pattern weren't Pearl Harbors....they were well 'known" in advance. So true! I was thinking that we may get lucky and have the EPO ridge not break down so fast. Wouldn't that be sweet? My bet is the weeklies towards evening will show later weeks with intense cold in Canada and warm to the south. Where will the boundary be? Happy Birthday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 1, 2011 Author Share Posted December 1, 2011 Happy Birthday. Thank you Scott! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 Thank you Scott! Happy birthday bro./ congrats on the official SS age, mine is 66 and 6+ months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 Eventually it all changes Ray. When life hands you a jeffrey ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 Thank you Scott! Happy birthday!! Here's to a snowy winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 Happy Birthday oldtimer..from another oldtimer!..hey at least we got to see some of the great storms of the 60's..have a good one Jerry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 When life hands you a jeffrey ... One of the better movies in recent years in terms of raw laughs. Reminds me of how funny/groundbreaking Naked Gun was. My point to the snowanistas is of course it's going to snow again in Boston, Worcester, Providence..if it didn't we'd have the all time record worst snow winters by a long shot. But snow doesn't mean a pattern has changed it just means we're not living on Mercury. GFS rolling in, most important run of our lives for next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 speaks to how mild the water is for the time of year when this air mass is generating an ocean-induced SC deck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 speaks to how mild the water is for the time of year when this air mass is generating an ocean-induced SC deck LOL actually just mentioned that on the air Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 One of the better movies in recent years in terms of raw laughs. Reminds me of how funny/groundbreaking Naked Gun was. My point to the snowanistas is of course it's going to snow again in Boston, Worcester, Providence..if it didn't we'd have the all time record worst snow winters by a long shot. But snow doesn't mean a pattern has changed it just means we're not living on Mercury. GFS rolling in, most important run of our lives for next week well said BIGGEST MODEL RUN OF OUR LIVES!!! ...until the 12z Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 LOL actually just mentioned that on the air LOL. pretty stupid to see. it's like an early october cold shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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