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December moving forward...pattern disco


weathafella

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6z GFS spring a coastal with interior snow in that d7 period. We get a little wave forming on the tail end of the front, in the SE, after it clears our region, and then the ejecting energy out of the SW helps it strengthen. This will only change about 28 times over the next 7 days.

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6z GFS spring a coastal with interior snow in that d7 period. We get a little wave forming on the tail end of the front, in the SE, after it clears our region, and then the ejecting energy out of the SW helps it strengthen. This will only change about 28 times over the next 7 days.

Not expecting anything here but it would be great for NNE and the ski areas.

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6z GFS spring a coastal with interior snow in that d7 period. We get a little wave forming on the tail end of the front, in the SE, after it clears our region, and then the ejecting energy out of the SW helps it strengthen. This will only change about 28 times over the next 7 days.

At least there's a glimmer of hope, if only for six hours.

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It's funny for awhile..but the constant negative posts gets old and incessant. Whenever anyone posts anything positiive he combats it with something negative

Well, he is Debbie Downer and Messenger calls himself a wet towel. I think there are some positive signs and I don't share te pessimism one bit. We've turned the page.

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Preliminaries through today... I'll do a more detailed stats breakdown in a few days so we can include some co-ops too...

           BDL   BDR   BOS   PVD   ORH
---------------------------------------
Nov Dep    +4.1  +4.3  +5.8  +4.0  +6.5
Fall Avg   56.3  58.9  58.5  57.1  54.5
Fall Dep   +3.6  +3.4  +3.9  +3.1  +3.7
Fall Rank    1 	1 	1 	1 	1

Those ranks are different than what the NWS has.

BOSTON 58.4...WARMEST ON RECORD /RECORD 58.3 IN 1931/ HARTFORD/BDL 55.7...UNOFICIALLY 5TH WARMEST /RECORD 57.7 IN 1931/ PROVIDENCE 57.1...UNOFICIALLY 3RD WARMEST /RECORD 57.7 IN 1946/ WORCESTER 54.5...UNOFICIALLY 3RD WARMEST /RECORD 54.7 IN 1915/

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It's funny for awhile..but the constant negative posts gets old and incessant. Whenever anyone posts anything positiive he combats it with something negative

Unfortunately no reasonable person can look at these model runs and find anything positive. Things just look really, really bad.

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Unfortunately no reasonable person can look at these model runs and find anything positive. Things just look really, really bad.

The next 2 weeks are not the worst, its what has been showing up at the very end of some of the recent GFS runs that are scary, I'm thinking we definitely see something like the below depiction at some point the 15th-30th.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/NARR/1984/us1229.php

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It will bear fruit cuz everything is blooming again

Orange groves in S CT

Lol. I'm finally getting my leaves cleared today. As warm as it's been, my two prior attempts to have it done were put on hold due to snow cover.

We've gotten lucky through the crappy pattern and many of us are well above normal in the snowfall department. Let's hope we can continue a lucky streak as the pattern improves.

32.1/24

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The next 2 weeks are not the worst, its what has been showing up at the very end of some of the recent GFS runs that are scary, I'm thinking we definitely see something like the below depiction at some point the 15th-30th.

http://www.meteo.psu...1984/us1229.php

Yeah the end of the Euro ensembles look really bad.

So we dip to average if we're lucky for week 2 and then a return to a +EPO pattern?

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The next 2 weeks are not the worst, its what has been showing up at the very end of some of the recent GFS runs that are scary, I'm thinking we definitely see something like the below depiction at some point the 15th-30th.

http://www.meteo.psu...1984/us1229.php

Why would anyone be looking at any part of any GFS runs? The verification has been so bad it's not even worthwhile. GEFS sure..but not the op

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The euro ensembles are a little better, but they still lower heights in AK fairly significantly. I wish that would go away. Either way, something in the 11th-15th window perhaps.

The one thing that sux and was mentioned last night, is the tendency for these cold shots to go away. The troughs just lift out and weaken as they approach. It's warm for another week before the cold shot on the 9th. That one looks like it has legs, but hopefully it doesn't lift out as we get closer. Maybe we'll get lucky next week with any wave, but still think it is a long shot.

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The euro ensembles are a little better, but they still lower heights in AK fairly significantly. I wish that would go away. Either way, something in the 11th-15th window perhaps.

The one thing that sux and was mentioned last night, is the tendency for these cold shots to go away. The troughs just lift out and weaken as they approach. It's warm for another week before the cold shot on the 9th. That one looks like it has legs, but hopefully it doesn't lift out as we get closer. Maybe we'll get lucky next week with any wave, but still think it is a long shot.

Yeah I agree with this. I just don't think there's much to get excited about looking right now.

Maybe some higher elevation NNE snow on 12/8 and an overrunning event in the 11-15 window but in general the pattern looks warm and not very good for SNE.

Euro ensemble mean would be our worst nightmare as we approach 12/15.

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The euro ensembles are a little better, but they still lower heights in AK fairly significantly. I wish that would go away. Either way, something in the 11th-15th window perhaps.

The one thing that sux and was mentioned last night, is the tendency for these cold shots to go away. The troughs just lift out and weaken as they approach. It's warm for another week before the cold shot on the 9th. That one looks like it has legs, but hopefully it doesn't lift out as we get closer. Maybe we'll get lucky next week with any wave, but still think it is a long shot.

You are not a reasonable person.

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Yeah I agree with this. I just don't think there's much to get excited about looking right now.

Maybe some higher elevation NNE snow on 12/8 and an overrunning event in the 11-15 window but in general the pattern looks warm and not very good for SNE.

Euro ensemble mean would be our worst nightmare as we approach 12/15.

I'm hoping we can start tracking something in the next week. I think something will try to make a run at us from the southwest, but obviously details TBD. I'm hoping maybe the GEFS and EC ensembles can compromise, because that wouldn't be that bad.

Either way, we've beaten this whole thing like a dead horse..lol. Lets just hope something comes.

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