earthlight Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 If you really want to grasp for straws, the very end of the GEFS show the Polar Vortex finally on the move away from Greenland and the Davis Straight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 Euro ensembles have the +EPO returning by the end of the run (again). This has been a feature that keeps popping up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 6z GFS spring a coastal with interior snow in that d7 period. We get a little wave forming on the tail end of the front, in the SE, after it clears our region, and then the ejecting energy out of the SW helps it strengthen. This will only change about 28 times over the next 7 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 6z GFS spring a coastal with interior snow in that d7 period. We get a little wave forming on the tail end of the front, in the SE, after it clears our region, and then the ejecting energy out of the SW helps it strengthen. This will only change about 28 times over the next 7 days. Not expecting anything here but it would be great for NNE and the ski areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 6z GFS spring a coastal with interior snow in that d7 period. We get a little wave forming on the tail end of the front, in the SE, after it clears our region, and then the ejecting energy out of the SW helps it strengthen. This will only change about 28 times over the next 7 days. At least there's a glimmer of hope, if only for six hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 Not expecting anything here but it would be great for NNE and the ski areas. Of course you're not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 HAPPY BIRTHDAY JERRY !!!! The deck is getting shuffled as we speak. Pattern change begins Dec 10th and is complete by 12/25. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 Of course you're not No because the pattern looks horrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 Of course you're not He's happy about all this. He and Messenger love it.. Things are getting shaken up in AK and that will bear fruit for us before long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 He's happy about all this. He and Messenger love it.. Things are getting shaken up in AK and that will bear fruit for us before long. It's funny for awhile..but the constant negative posts gets old and incessant. Whenever anyone posts anything positiive he combats it with something negative Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 It will bear fruit cuz everything is blooming again Orange groves in S CT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 It's funny for awhile..but the constant negative posts gets old and incessant. Whenever anyone posts anything positiive he combats it with something negative Well, he is Debbie Downer and Messenger calls himself a wet towel. I think there are some positive signs and I don't share te pessimism one bit. We've turned the page. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 Preliminaries through today... I'll do a more detailed stats breakdown in a few days so we can include some co-ops too... BDL BDR BOS PVD ORH --------------------------------------- Nov Dep +4.1 +4.3 +5.8 +4.0 +6.5 Fall Avg 56.3 58.9 58.5 57.1 54.5 Fall Dep +3.6 +3.4 +3.9 +3.1 +3.7 Fall Rank 1 1 1 1 1 Those ranks are different than what the NWS has. BOSTON 58.4...WARMEST ON RECORD /RECORD 58.3 IN 1931/ HARTFORD/BDL 55.7...UNOFICIALLY 5TH WARMEST /RECORD 57.7 IN 1931/ PROVIDENCE 57.1...UNOFICIALLY 3RD WARMEST /RECORD 57.7 IN 1946/ WORCESTER 54.5...UNOFICIALLY 3RD WARMEST /RECORD 54.7 IN 1915/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 It's funny for awhile..but the constant negative posts gets old and incessant. Whenever anyone posts anything positiive he combats it with something negative Unfortunately no reasonable person can look at these model runs and find anything positive. Things just look really, really bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 It will bear fruit cuz everything is blooming again Orange groves in S CT Stop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 Unfortunately no reasonable person can look at these model runs and find anything positive. Things just look really, really bad. Phil, Will and Scooter did last night. They had plenty of good things to point out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 Phil, Will and Scooter did last night. They had plenty of good things to point out Really? Not that I saw lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 Unfortunately no reasonable person can look at these model runs and find anything positive. Things just look really, really bad. The next 2 weeks are not the worst, its what has been showing up at the very end of some of the recent GFS runs that are scary, I'm thinking we definitely see something like the below depiction at some point the 15th-30th. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/NARR/1984/us1229.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 It will bear fruit cuz everything is blooming again Orange groves in S CT Lol. I'm finally getting my leaves cleared today. As warm as it's been, my two prior attempts to have it done were put on hold due to snow cover. We've gotten lucky through the crappy pattern and many of us are well above normal in the snowfall department. Let's hope we can continue a lucky streak as the pattern improves. 32.1/24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allenson Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 This will only change about 28 times over the next 7 days. Well at least there's some consistency. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 The next 2 weeks are not the worst, its what has been showing up at the very end of some of the recent GFS runs that are scary, I'm thinking we definitely see something like the below depiction at some point the 15th-30th. http://www.meteo.psu...1984/us1229.php Yeah the end of the Euro ensembles look really bad. So we dip to average if we're lucky for week 2 and then a return to a +EPO pattern? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 The next 2 weeks are not the worst, its what has been showing up at the very end of some of the recent GFS runs that are scary, I'm thinking we definitely see something like the below depiction at some point the 15th-30th. http://www.meteo.psu...1984/us1229.php Why would anyone be looking at any part of any GFS runs? The verification has been so bad it's not even worthwhile. GEFS sure..but not the op Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 Why would anyone be looking at any part of any GFS runs? The verification has been so bad it's not even worthwhile. GEFS sure..but not the op Solid question. Why the pearl-clutching over the end of the GFS run or Euro ensembles? That would normally warrant a or three. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 Need not look past 7 days, All fantasy from there on out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 1, 2011 Author Share Posted December 1, 2011 HAPPY BIRTHDAY JERRY !!!! The deck is getting shuffled as we speak. Pattern change begins Dec 10th and is complete by 12/25. Thanks Pete! I thnk that's actually going to happen because I be ole man winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 The euro ensembles are a little better, but they still lower heights in AK fairly significantly. I wish that would go away. Either way, something in the 11th-15th window perhaps. The one thing that sux and was mentioned last night, is the tendency for these cold shots to go away. The troughs just lift out and weaken as they approach. It's warm for another week before the cold shot on the 9th. That one looks like it has legs, but hopefully it doesn't lift out as we get closer. Maybe we'll get lucky next week with any wave, but still think it is a long shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 The euro ensembles are a little better, but they still lower heights in AK fairly significantly. I wish that would go away. Either way, something in the 11th-15th window perhaps. The one thing that sux and was mentioned last night, is the tendency for these cold shots to go away. The troughs just lift out and weaken as they approach. It's warm for another week before the cold shot on the 9th. That one looks like it has legs, but hopefully it doesn't lift out as we get closer. Maybe we'll get lucky next week with any wave, but still think it is a long shot. Yeah I agree with this. I just don't think there's much to get excited about looking right now. Maybe some higher elevation NNE snow on 12/8 and an overrunning event in the 11-15 window but in general the pattern looks warm and not very good for SNE. Euro ensemble mean would be our worst nightmare as we approach 12/15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 The euro ensembles are a little better, but they still lower heights in AK fairly significantly. I wish that would go away. Either way, something in the 11th-15th window perhaps. The one thing that sux and was mentioned last night, is the tendency for these cold shots to go away. The troughs just lift out and weaken as they approach. It's warm for another week before the cold shot on the 9th. That one looks like it has legs, but hopefully it doesn't lift out as we get closer. Maybe we'll get lucky next week with any wave, but still think it is a long shot. You are not a reasonable person. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 Yeah I agree with this. I just don't think there's much to get excited about looking right now. Maybe some higher elevation NNE snow on 12/8 and an overrunning event in the 11-15 window but in general the pattern looks warm and not very good for SNE. Euro ensemble mean would be our worst nightmare as we approach 12/15. I'm hoping we can start tracking something in the next week. I think something will try to make a run at us from the southwest, but obviously details TBD. I'm hoping maybe the GEFS and EC ensembles can compromise, because that wouldn't be that bad. Either way, we've beaten this whole thing like a dead horse..lol. Lets just hope something comes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 You are not a reasonable person. For next week? LOL. Your chance will come after, but maybe a weenie can get lucky next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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