December moving forward...pattern disco

[CoastalWx]

I'm starting to buy into the blocking for March idea or maybe even Feb....but I'm no expert in the SSW stuff. But 2001 developed incredible blocking in late February that lasted through March which gave us that good finish to that winter. But we'll see.

If nothing else, climo has to even out at some point by throwing us a bone in March. That doesn't mean this year does it, but you know the clock is ticking on a blockbuster March.

I've heard other grumblings from others about back half winter action which has made me a little more positive in Feb and March, but I admit it's defintely not a strength of mine. Like you said...eventually the hammer drops on these crappy months of March.

[OKpowdah]

I equate November snow more to May for severe wx...we get a decent event every now and then but it is not the norm just like we get a decent May severe wx event every now and then but we don't expect it as the norm.

December snow is a norm for most of SNE...even bad Decembers generally have at least one advisory or better event. A bad December is not good...esp in a La Nina as stats have shown.

I think we'll end up doing ok, but we might be walking a tight rope and may have to make the best of our chances in an overall warm pattern like we did in 1956...or even 2008 which was a warm month too.

I equate July snow to severe weather

[40/70 Benchmark]

Good read, Nick...thx.

I'm off to bed....visions of naked cfs prancing over rt 128 dancing in my head.

[weatherwiz]

I equate July snow to severe weather

I liked you better when you were in OK.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I equate July snow to severe weather

:lol:

[ORH_wxman]

I've heard other grumblings from others about back half winter action which has made me a little more positive in Feb and March, but I admit it's defintely not a strength of mine. Like you said...eventually the hammer drops on these crappy months of March.

There have certainly been some spectacular finishes in Nina winters...March is usually better in Ninos, but '00-'01 obviously wasnt in that brand...same for '55-'56...'66-'67 which is a borderline Nina too.

Ironically and perhaps not coincidentally most of the big Nina Marches had some slow starts.

[CoastalWx]

That comparison makes much more sense.

Stats do show that, however, there are exceptions, such as last winter. We just have to hope that we can see a massive 180 with the NAO/AO and I think we will be fine. Even with the EPO now trending into the negative territory that should provide some help...at least making way for more SWFE type setups rather than pure cutters...this obviously benefits central and northern New England more but it's something.

I just can't see the AO staying this strongly positive through the winter although you never know. If we can get solar activity to calm down some within a few days we should begin seeing some changes within the stratosphere and then soon after start seeing the +AO break down some...it's when this occurs we could see the potential for a decent storm system. We have seen some volatile wx patterns the past few years, especially given some of the massive swings we have seen within ENSO and some of the teleconnection patterns.

I think we had the perfect storm of circumstances to keep the whole polar vortex in tact, and strong. I think I read somewhere where strong values of the AO eventually fell back down in about 4-6 weeks from the point where they peaked. The -QBO wave will be downwelling further which will also aid in disturbing the PV. If the Nina can weaken a little in the second half of the winter, it could also allow the MJO convection to have more push towards the date line. Right now, the easterlies are very strong..and they are continuing the upwelling of cold waters in the EPAC and CPAC as well as keeping the convergence out in the IO area.

[ORH_wxman]

I think we had the perfect storm of circumstances to keep the whole polar vortex in tact, and strong. I think I read somewhere where strong values of the AO eventually fell back down in about 4-6 weeks from the point where they peaked. The -QBO wave will be downwelling further which will also aid in disturbing the PV. If the Nina can weaken a little in the second half of the winter, it could also allow the MJO convection to have more push towards the date line. Right now, the easterlies are very strong..and they are continuing the upwelling of cold waters in the EPAC and CPAC as well as keeping the convergence out in the IO area.

My gut feeling is that the MJO is going to offer no help until at least January.

So we'll have to try find other ways to "fix" the pattern.

[H2Otown_WX]

I've heard other grumblings from others about back half winter action which has made me a little more positive in Feb and March, but I admit it's defintely not a strength of mine. Like you said...eventually the hammer drops on these crappy months of March.

Even 2002 had a decent March with a small event on 3/18 and then 5" of paste of 3/20, the last day of winter. I always felt that event was a foreshadow to '02-'03.

[CoastalWx]

My gut feeling is that the MJO is going to offer no help until at least January.

So we'll have to try find other ways to "fix" the pattern.

Yeah that's a no go right now....hopefully later in the winter it offers some help, but who knows.

[OKpowdah]

I liked you better when you were in OK.

I'm in winter mode ... which is usually when we don't get snow...

[weatherwiz]

I think we had the perfect storm of circumstances to keep the whole polar vortex in tact, and strong. I think I read somewhere where strong values of the AO eventually fell back down in about 4-6 weeks from the point where they peaked. The -QBO wave will be downwelling further which will also aid in disturbing the PV. If the Nina can weaken a little in the second half of the winter, it could also allow the MJO convection to have more push towards the date line. Right now, the easterlies are very strong..and they are continuing the upwelling of cold waters in the EPAC and CPAC as well as keeping the convergence out in the IO area.

I remember reading that as well...didn't HM say something about that?

I am not so sure about the Nina weakening anytime soon to be honest. If anything it will remain rather steady in strength with probably a slight trend towards more strengthening.

There have been some interesting changes within the SSTA field though the past few weeks across the globe...across the eastern PAC near central/south America we have seen slight warming of those waters which perhaps is influencing the SE ridge some. It also appears as if the +AMO is becoming slightly less positive...another very nice gradient setting up just off the east coast which if we can get any coastals could be some MAJOR fuel.

If the MJO continues towards the COD it could be stuck there for quite a while which means we won't see much influences at all from tropical forcing.

Right now though with the solar activity going pretty wild and the stratosphere being so freaking cold the AO is just completely dominating right now and any cold shots trying to work into the US are just getting eaten alive. The EPO going negative is at least trying to help sustain them into the northern tier of the US.

I feel as if once the +AO lessens we will start seeing some major changes here.

[weatherwiz]

I'm in winter mode ... which is usually when we don't get snow...

Tough to get into winter mode right now. Last year at this time I remember feeling like crap about the winter but was taught a major lesson.

I'll wait until the end of December before I place that much emotional investment into whether or not the winter will suck.

[ORH_wxman]

Yeah that's a no go right now....hopefully later in the winter it offers some help, but who knows.

1975-1976 was classic to save us that winter...it was a hard Nina pattern and even lacking some cold in the northern plains...but we managed to survive with a good N ATL ridge and some PNA ridging in December and then in January 1976 we got a monster MJO pulse going around in phases 7,8,1 to save us and give us another month of cold before the flame thrower was activated across the CONUS in February.

The MJO stunk in December...going through phases 3/4 before going into the COD by Dec 11...eerily similar to this year.

[CoastalWx]

I remember reading that as well...didn't HM say something about that?

I am not so sure about the Nina weakening anytime soon to be honest. If anything it will remain rather steady in strength with probably a slight trend towards more strengthening.

There have been some interesting changes within the SSTA field though the past few weeks across the globe...across the eastern PAC near central/south America we have seen slight warming of those waters which perhaps is influencing the SE ridge some. It also appears as if the +AMO is becoming slightly less positive...another very nice gradient setting up just off the east coast which if we can get any coastals could be some MAJOR fuel.

If the MJO continues towards the COD it could be stuck there for quite a while which means we won't see much influences at all from tropical forcing.

Right now though with the solar activity going pretty wild and the stratosphere being so freaking cold the AO is just completely dominating right now and any cold shots trying to work into the US are just getting eaten alive. The EPO going negative is at least trying to help sustain them into the northern tier of the US.

I feel as if once the +AO lessens we will start seeing some major changes here.

It won't.....I was thinking more Feb or March. I'm not saying the SSTs will warm, but if the SOI starts to drop a bit and reduce those easterlies...it will help waves moving east from the IO.

[weatherwiz]

1975-1976 was classic to save us that winter...it was a hard Nina pattern and even lacking some cold in the northern plains...but we managed to survive with a good N ATL ridge and some PNA ridging in December and then in January 1976 we got a monster MJO pulse going around in phases 7,8,1,2 to save us and give us another month of cold before the flame thrower was activated across the CONUS in February.

The MJO stunk in December...going through phases 3/4 before going into the COD by Dec 11...eerily similar to this year.

If we are to get any help from the MJO this winter by the time any MJO signal became strong enough you would think it would occur somewhere between phases 7-2 which might not happen until maybe January or early Feb?

[weatherwiz]

It won't.....I was thinking more Feb or March. I'm not saying the SSTs will warm, but if the SOI starts to drop a bit and reduce those easterlies...it will help waves moving east from the IO.

I see what you're saying.

This is something to really watch.

Besides what we are seeing, even with the strong easterlies we haven't seen the Nina really strengthening at any rapid rate or anything and if this continues through the remainder of the month perhaps the Nina may relax a bit. How many Nina's do you know of that strengthened mightily after XMAS?

[CoastalWx]

I see what you're saying.

This is something to really watch.

Besides what we are seeing, even with the strong easterlies we haven't seen the Nina really strengthening at any rapid rate or anything and if this continues through the remainder of the month perhaps the Nina may relax a bit. How many Nina's do you know of that strengthened mightily after XMAS?

Will might be able to answer that better than I can, but usually they don't strengthen much after Christmas. There might have been a few that did. I think this one is making a final push into low end moderate right now.

[ORH_wxman]

If we are to get any help from the MJO this winter by the time any MJO signal became strong enough you would think it would occur somewhere between phases 7-2 which might not happen until maybe January or early Feb?

The MJO is not easily forecast which is why a lot of forecasts can bust because of it...it doesn't have a big influence if its amplitude is low...but at any point we can get a strong MJO wave sneak up on us and rip through cold phases without a ton of warming....it could happen by Christmas, but I'm not feeling it that soon, I think at earliest its January....if at all.

There's a reason why El Nino is more favorable for cold in the east...because the MJO can propogate into the Pacific easier...but thankfully in La Nina, we are far enough north that we sometimes get away with "warm" MJO phases...that can produce a gradient pattern or only give us mildly above temp which are still cold enough for snow.

The "base" pattern without MJO influence in a solid La Nina is SE ridge and WC trough with cold in Canada...so we are in between those two extremes in New England which is why we have a shot. Sometimes we fail, but often we can do ok. The La Ninas that don't have cold in Canada are the ones we normally have terrible winters in.

[weatherwiz]

Will might be able to answer that better than I can, but usually they don't strengthen much after Christmas. There might have been a few that did. I think this one is making a final push into low end moderate right now.

The only Nina I can think of that peaked late in the winter was 70-71.

Maybe 99-00 too if I recall.

Low end moderate seems about right for this Nina...may not even make official moderate category either...I could see the ONI peaking at -0.9C.

[weatherwiz]

The MJO is not easily forecast which is why a lot of forecasts can bust because of it...it doesn't have a big influence if its amplitude is low...but at any point we can get a strong MJO wave sneak up on us and rip through cold phases without a ton of warming....it could happen by Christmas, but I'm not feeling it that soon, I think at earliest its January....if at all.

There's a reason why El Nino is more favorable for cold in the east...because the MJO can propogate into the Pacific easier...but thankfully in La Nina, we are far enough north that we sometimes get away with "warm" MJO phases...that can produce a gradient pattern or only give us mildly above temp which are still cold enough for snow.

The "base" pattern without MJO influence in a solid La Nina is SE ridge and WC trough with cold in Canada...so we are in between those two extremes in New England which is why we have a shot. Sometimes we fail, but often we can do ok. The La Ninas that don't have cold in Canada are the ones we normally have terrible winters in.

Looking at water temps in the Indian Ocean and far western Pacific there has been some slight warming of the SST's across this region the past few weeks...nothing significant but this is something that could aid in further increasing any chances of an MJO wave surviving longer through the Pacific despite the colder SST's.

[ORH_wxman]

Will might be able to answer that better than I can, but usually they don't strengthen much after Christmas. There might have been a few that did. I think this one is making a final push into low end moderate right now.

Almost never. Sometimes the more stubborn ones can hold serve a bit after Christmas, but they are almost always peaked by then.

1970-1971 was a stubborn Nina that peaked pretty late...late Dec...so was 2007-2008. But I think all others on record were earlier.

[CoastalWx]

Nice Scooter high pressure on the euro...lol. Hopefully it doesn't vaporize in the later frames.

[Logan11]

Should have gone to bed an hour ago I see....

Nice Scooter high pressure on the euro...lol. Hopefully it doesn't vaporize in the later frames.

[ORH_wxman]

The disturbance in the SW at the end of the run is the one we prob want to watch.

[OSUmetstud]

The +AO from hell

[CoastalWx]

The disturbance in the SW at the end of the run is the one we prob want to watch.

The euro looks like it's doing the classic bias of keeping it too tucked into the sw US, but that looks to be a player maybe in the 11-13 timeframe or so.

At least we seemed to have stopped the crappy trend for now. We'll have to see how the next couple of days look..but even the Canadian ensembles cooled off tonight. The models could still trend lousy again, but for once it seemed like the op and ensembles all had an idea about that second cold shot after the 8th...and some sort of potential in that time. Haven't seen that in a while. I'm sure we'll see wavering back and forth with how the models handle the Pacific.

Hopefully the euro ensembles don't crap the bed.

[Logan11]

Most threats fall apart around day 7 or so.... It seems silly to devote any real time to day 11, although I can see the theoretical point about a possible gradient event.

The euro looks like it's doing the classic bias of keeping it too tucked into the sw US, but that looks to be a player maybe in the 11-13 timeframe or so.

At least we seemed to have stopped the crappy trend for now. We'll have to see how the next couple of days look..but even the Canadian ensembles cooled off tonight. The models could still trend lousy again, but for once it seemed like the op and ensembles all had an idea about that second cold shot after the 8th...and some sort of potential in that time. Haven't seen that in a while. I'm sure we'll see wavering back and forth with how the models handle the Pacific.

Hopefully the euro ensembles don't crap the bed.

[ORH_wxman]

The euro looks like it's doing the classic bias of keeping it too tucked into the sw US, but that looks to be a player maybe in the 11-13 timeframe or so.

At least we seemed to have stopped the crappy trend for now. We'll have to see how the next couple of days look..but even the Canadian ensembles cooled off tonight. The models could still trend lousy again, but for once it seemed like the op and ensembles all had an idea about that second cold shot after the 8th...and some sort of potential in that time. Haven't seen that in a while. I'm sure we'll see wavering back and forth with how the models handle the Pacific.

Hopefully the euro ensembles don't crap the bed.

Hopefully this matches the theory that models tend to under estimate cold during a -EPO cold dump....just as they tend to over estimate the cold during a +EPO like we have seen.

I cold see that brief window in the Dec 9-14 time frame trending colder on the models...esp for the northern tier. That EPOI cold dump is decent...and models generally do not handle that well in the long range. They can often be decently warm bias on that pattern...shallow cold especially...even 800mb and below is shallow cold.

[ORH_wxman]

Most threats fall apart around day 7 or so.... It seems silly to devote any real time to day 11, although I can see the theoretical point about a possible gradient event.

I don't think anyone is actually "devoting" time to a threat here...just discussing that the pattern might be ripe for a threat around that time...but we've already mentioned the caveats.

There is certainly very little emotional investment in this "threat" which is just a vague reference to the pattern...not an actual storm appearing on the models unless you believe the D10 GFS.

It sure beats counting the horse fly population increase in the Helderbergs at 1000 feet over the past 2 weeks.