mattie g Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 Wow...overnight model runs were cold. Euro and 0z and 6z GFS all advertising a significant to possibly severe cold outbreak next Sunday (11th). 6z GFS even has a beautiful 384hr fantasy SECS/MECS. 0Z had the fantasy storm suppressed and pretty much shunted out to sea. 6Z had it in a prime location. 12Z had it run up int to Great Lakes. Still going to be all over the place at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 The storm or the cold shot? The GFS shows a reasonable pattern for both. You don't need a -NAO or -AO to get cold/snow, it just makes the odds that much better. For the cold shot, the western ridge shoots way north into the Arctic Ocean and there's ridging over the Labrador Sea. In between, a piece of the PV gets shoved south and whammo...big cold shot. For the 384hr fantasy, there's some western ridging inland (which is typically a better spot for coastals) and then troughing north of Newfoundland and then ridging back toward Greenland. AO is still mega-positive, but the pattern otherwise looks conducive. Thanks for the info. I'm on my iPhone so cant view the modeling till I get back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 Be sure to stay tuned for the GFS's next performance. If it had a Cat 3 hurricane making landfall in the Carolinas, I wouldn't be surprised. Just take a look at its last three solutions for the 96 to 120 hour timeframe. And to think anybody puts merit on model solutions beyond 10 days. Baffling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 gfs is in lala land last 4 runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 gfs is in lala land last 4 runs 18z is the closest ive seen to a good hit for us...still not good enough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 Was there a daily pressure record set today? 30.68in seems quite up the ladder unless my station is wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 30.66 on mine, 30.69 at DCA. No idea where that stands in the historical record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted December 4, 2011 Author Share Posted December 4, 2011 Was there a daily pressure record set today? 30.68in seems quite up the ladder unless my station is wrong. 30.66 on mine, 30.69 at DCA. No idea where that stands in the historical record. Ugh inches of mercury. KDCA 031452Z 04005KT 10SM BKN250 07/00 A3069 RMK AO2 SLP392 T00670000 51011 1039.2 mb God I hate the US measurement system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowdude Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 18z is the closest ive seen to a good hit for us...still not good enough Yup, no blocking or real cold air makes it tough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 Well, the GFS has certainly cleared things up. It just looks to me that the pieces are in place on the GFS for a storm. Seems to just fizzle. It also seems that the pieces are there on the NAM to see a storm form. Maybe I just don't know enough to know what I'm looking at. I know the temps are marginal, but the models don't do at 100-120 hours what I would have thought when looking about 12-24 hours earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 384hr GFS says we win in the cold dept. Lock it up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoVaWx Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 GFS tonight got me slightly interested, but EURO says we finally got a legit storm to track. Not gonna post the clown map, but a couple of inches south of DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 6z GFS http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/06zgfssnow120.gif Euro also has the storm but keeps the snow in VA (and has less snow). Good chance this happens since I'll be out of town. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 GFS has had some serious cold coming in late week for a few runs now...we will see if it happens but it should at least feel like winter....I hope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Herb@MAWS Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 Noticed on Sat, 12/3 BWI topped out at 50. Only 15 mil away IMBY, only got to 43. Looks like some decent cold for early Dec later in week/start of weekend. KC only looking at 30s, STL 40-low 40s. Probably 40-44 in BWI area, withe the usual "chillier N&W". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 62 degrees with drizzle and a light south breeze. Feels like September again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JMU2004 Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 LR GFS says brr.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Sounding more and more like tomorrow and tomorrow night are going to be beautiful.* * If you like cold tropical downpours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CranberryWX Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Very ugly day here...low clouds, dark, cold drizzly rain, fog obscuring the hill tops, temperatures dropping into the low 40s this afternoon, 1/2" of rain today...nasty! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 hasn't really rained all that much here yet...bust Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Dense fog since sunset here in the valley. Christmas lights on the houses look different in the soup than they did over the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 chillin' out on the porch, pretty dense fog has developed, feels great out though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Dropped 2 degrees here in the last hour and a half. Am now sitting at 58 with a couple of sprinkles. Hoping to see the cold air bleed in enough throughout the day to maybe see an inch or 2 of snow tonight up here just north of the MD/PA border in Hanover. But after looking over the latest runs and the projected temps I won't hold my breath for any of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Steady rain... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 dumping rains and slow drivers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Steady rain... Any hope of seeing snow down your way? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snownut Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Just moved this to OBs Thread: Out at my Cabin today and tonight, cold seems very slow getting in here. After flood watch today NWS still has me in 3-6 .... continue to be a skeptic on this one. moderate rain continues . temp 48.5 with .33 in the bucket since midnight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CranberryWX Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Currently light rain, 41F. I should see a changover to snow early afternoon. 0.59" of rain since midnight when this system of rain moved in. Prior to that I got 0.76" from the drizzly crap...1.35" last day and a half. HTS should have gone over their annual rainfall record last night of 59.98" set in 1989. I'm currently at 55.95". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Any hope of seeing snow down your way? I think i will be able to tell that it snowed when i wake up tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 I think i will be able to tell that it snowed when i wake up tomorrow That will give me time to put out that fake snow I just got delivered Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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