WinterWxLuvr Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 Can't see why anyone would put much faith in the EC 9 or 10 day forecast. It wasn't very good 9 days ago for today. 10 days from now might be just as bad as is being said here, but........it might not be. Sure seems to be a lot of volatility in the models right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 The blocking is key. Without having some type of high pressure across the north, it's hard to bring the really cold low level air southward even behind a front as the winds turn so quickly to the southwest once the low goes by. If you do get a high, it's usually one that modifies as it comes eastward from the plains. I do see us getting a shot of cold air coming up but think it is transient. Note that therer are signs that the epo may go back positive. That and a positive nao would signal a big warm up down the road. That epo switch is still up in the air but would fit most likely tropical forcing. The bad think about the progs is they don't have to get the waves quite right and this pattern still blows as the thing they probably have the most skill with are the giant polar vortex . That both the gfs and euro continue to show it is pretty telling (I think) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 Down to 24 last night but I still have not burned a single log of wood yet this fall or winter. Just when it seems like it will be cold enough to fire up the stove we get another day in the mid 50's. I love the snow but this fall has been absolutely beautiful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 I just scanned your avatar...I'd like to submit a counter offer of 50 cents. deal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 24 this morning with some of the lowest valleys hitting the upper teens. Pattern looks like crap for us, unless you like warm weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 deal In 2 payments - Is a check okay? I can have your 25 cent check in the mail tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 27.9 this morning, actually feels great Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snownut Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 Down to 24 last night but I still have not burned a single log of wood yet this fall or winter. Just when it seems like it will be cold enough to fire up the stove we get another day in the mid 50's. I love the snow but this fall has been absolutely beautiful. This is the latest since having my cabin in 2006 that I have not turned on my backup heat. I use the wood stove when I am there and the bath tile floor heat but yes it has been a nice season. Even with the low sun angle solar is keeping up, monthly bill (oct-nov) yesterday $5.10. that is pretty low considering the monthly connection fee is $5.00 LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 21F here this morning. coldest temp of the season. thick frost. most stations reporting mid 20s, not sure why I'm colder. The air is dead calm, such a departure from last Dec. when the wind howled constantly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CranberryWX Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 This is the latest since having my cabin in 2006 that I have not turned on my backup heat. I use the wood stove when I am there and the bath tile floor heat but yes it has been a nice season. Even with the low sun angle solar is keeping up, monthly bill (oct-nov) yesterday $5.10. that is pretty low considering the monthly connection fee is $5.00 LOL Charleston recorded it's 5th warmest November on record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 Wow...overnight model runs were cold. Euro and 0z and 6z GFS all advertising a significant to possibly severe cold outbreak next Sunday (11th). 6z GFS even has a beautiful 384hr fantasy SECS/MECS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 Wow...overnight model runs were cold. Euro and 0z and 6z GFS all advertising a significant to possibly severe cold outbreak next Sunday (11th). 6z GFS even has a beautiful 384hr fantasy SECS/MECS. sorry, JI beat you to it over in the NE forum p.s. I agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 25 for the low here...frosty out there still Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 Wow...overnight model runs were cold. Euro and 0z and 6z GFS all advertising a significant to possibly severe cold outbreak next Sunday (11th). 6z GFS even has a beautiful 384hr fantasy SECS/MECS. The 06Z GFS storm sure looks bogus, look at the ao on its ensemble mean, its again off the charts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 Wow...overnight model runs were cold. Euro and 0z and 6z GFS all advertising a significant to possibly severe cold outbreak next Sunday (11th). 6z GFS even has a beautiful 384hr fantasy SECS/MECS. With a strong +AO/+NAO? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 Here's your astrophotography fix for the weekend! - Taken last night at an astronomy viewing session in Colesvile, MD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 Great pic, Kenny! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 Had to rub it in didn't ya Kenny? I didn't even get home from work until 9:30 last night. I will be there next month when you set up or even this month if you go again. The only time I'm out of town for the next 2 months is the second half of xmas week through new years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 Great pic, Kenny! Thanks, Katie! Had to rub it in didn't ya Kenny? I didn't even get home from work until 9:30 last night. I will be there next month when you set up or even this month if you go again. The only time I'm out of town for the next 2 months is the second half of xmas week through new years. I've got several sessions in planning. It's tough to try to plan for the optimal viewing conditions (full moon is not good since it's too bright to view) "half/quarter" moon or even a crescent is better because it brings out the shadows on the craters. Jupiter should be good for a while still. I guess you won't be able to make the December 30 one. Looking at the charts - January 28th (providing good weather) would be pretty optimal in terms of moon and Jupiter and some other deeper sky objects. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 With a strong +AO/+NAO? The storm or the cold shot? The GFS shows a reasonable pattern for both. You don't need a -NAO or -AO to get cold/snow, it just makes the odds that much better. For the cold shot, the western ridge shoots way north into the Arctic Ocean and there's ridging over the Labrador Sea. In between, a piece of the PV gets shoved south and whammo...big cold shot. For the 384hr fantasy, there's some western ridging inland (which is typically a better spot for coastals) and then troughing north of Newfoundland and then ridging back toward Greenland. AO is still mega-positive, but the pattern otherwise looks conducive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 I guess you won't be able to make the December 30 one. Looking at the charts - January 28th (providing good weather) would be pretty optimal in terms of moon and Jupiter and some other deeper sky objects. Damn, looks that way. I had to tell my son a white lie last night. I told him you dropped the telescope and it's in the shop. lol The good thing is that I'm pretty flexible and we live pretty close to each other. I can usually slide out at a moment's notice without problem. The worst part about having to work last night is that I own the darn company. It was an important meeting though or I would have blown it off in a second. Did you see Jupiter or any deep space objects last night? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 Damn, looks that way. I had to tell my son a white lie last night. I told him you dropped the telescope and it's in the shop. lol The good thing is that I'm pretty flexible and we live pretty close to each other. I can usually slide out at a moment's notice without problem. The worst part about having to work last night is that I own the darn company. It was an important meeting though or I would have blown it off in a second. Did you see Jupiter or any deep space objects last night? Yeah we got a good look at Jupiter and the moon. No issues with frost or dew on the scope so that was a relief. Providing good weather and low humidity for Jan 28th that day pretty much looks like a lock. Might even be better viewing conditions than last night - moon will be slightly less full. Oh and I'm banking on having a solar filter by then so if you can make it out there even earlier - we might be able to score some good views of the surface of the sun! That'll be a first even for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 Wow...overnight model runs were cold. Euro and 0z and 6z GFS all advertising a significant to possibly severe cold outbreak next Sunday (11th). 6z GFS even has a beautiful 384hr fantasy SECS/MECS. 0Z had the fantasy storm suppressed and pretty much shunted out to sea. 6Z had it in a prime location. 12Z had it run up int to Great Lakes. Still going to be all over the place at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 The storm or the cold shot? The GFS shows a reasonable pattern for both. You don't need a -NAO or -AO to get cold/snow, it just makes the odds that much better. For the cold shot, the western ridge shoots way north into the Arctic Ocean and there's ridging over the Labrador Sea. In between, a piece of the PV gets shoved south and whammo...big cold shot. For the 384hr fantasy, there's some western ridging inland (which is typically a better spot for coastals) and then troughing north of Newfoundland and then ridging back toward Greenland. AO is still mega-positive, but the pattern otherwise looks conducive. Thanks for the info. I'm on my iPhone so cant view the modeling till I get back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 Be sure to stay tuned for the GFS's next performance. If it had a Cat 3 hurricane making landfall in the Carolinas, I wouldn't be surprised. Just take a look at its last three solutions for the 96 to 120 hour timeframe. And to think anybody puts merit on model solutions beyond 10 days. Baffling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 gfs is in lala land last 4 runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 gfs is in lala land last 4 runs 18z is the closest ive seen to a good hit for us...still not good enough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 Was there a daily pressure record set today? 30.68in seems quite up the ladder unless my station is wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 30.66 on mine, 30.69 at DCA. No idea where that stands in the historical record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted December 4, 2011 Author Share Posted December 4, 2011 Was there a daily pressure record set today? 30.68in seems quite up the ladder unless my station is wrong. 30.66 on mine, 30.69 at DCA. No idea where that stands in the historical record. Ugh inches of mercury. KDCA 031452Z 04005KT 10SM BKN250 07/00 A3069 RMK AO2 SLP392 T00670000 51011 1039.2 mb God I hate the US measurement system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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